halbhh
The wonder and awe of "all things".
Would be nice if it didn't take us 9 years like Italy did to get past Berlusconi. Maybe the American immune system can be stronger than that.
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Is Trump Dying (Politically)?
- Thread starter Sunstone
- Start date
PureX
Veteran Member
He'll screw up many more times in a year, especially as he sees his support falling away.
What more important, and more depressing, is that he could still win with such shallow actual support. We are no longer a democracy when someone can win an election with only 25% of the voting population voting for them in an essentially two-party system. Something has gone very wrong.
I wonder if Trump’s obsession with Twitter will play a role in his down fall.
Shad
Veteran Member
Have we not learned the lesson from the 2016 "polls"?
His showing up motivated Democrats to turn out in very large numbers according to some statistics I saw.
They won't. The more they bow and scrape and kiss his butt, the more Democrats are motivated to turn out next year.
Shad
Veteran Member
Kentucky was not a heavy GOP state.
The polls were as accurate as they ever were which is not bad. The Polls Are All Right
As that piece points out, they're not perfect because there is at least always a statistical margin of error.
Shad
Veteran Member
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-polls-are-all-right/
No the polls were not right as many predicted a landslide to Hillary.
You didn't read your source.
"It’s also relatively easy to address the case of presidential primary polls: They were pretty darn bad in 2016, with an average error of 10.1 percentage points. Polling the primaries is hard — the average polling error in all presidential primaries since 2000 is 8.7 percentage points. But primary polls aren’t usually as bad as they were in 2016. Because voting in general elections operates along increasingly predictable demographic lines, pollsters can use demographic weighting to make up for other problems in their samples. They don’t always have that luxury in the primaries, where demographic coalitions are more fluid and turnout is more difficult to model. Polling in the 2020 primaries could be a pretty wild ride."
10% is a huge margin of error especially when used to predict the results of an election.
They did not predict a landslide. Read the article I cited. Or just ignore the facts and make stuff up.
Shad
Veteran Member
Wrong. I read the article. I quoted it. You didn't read any of it outside the title. Yawn. The article compared presidential polls to presidential polls. The polls were still wrong even from your own source.
There is a 95 percent chance Hillary Clinton wins the Electoral College by 118 votes: poll
Election 2016: Why landslide elections don't happen much anymore -- but could this year - CNNPolitics
New Polls Show Clinton on Pace for a Landslide
Hillary Clinton Could Be Headed for a Landslide
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...6e682e-3d49-11e6-80bc-d06711fd2125_story.html
You can easily look up more
And /drum roll, your own source
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now
Shadow Wolf
Certified People sTabber
I worry the Dems may take that for granted. If they want an easy win, they are going to have to make massive appeals to moderates or motivate the black community (they did, after all, pretty much decide Roy Moore would not win his election in Alabama).
One thing I do think that will play out more in the Dems favor this time around however is the women's vote. I'm not sure if it will be a wall against Trump, but I really do not think Trump will garner the surprising amount of votes from women this time.
Shadow Wolf
Certified People sTabber
Yup. I clearly remember most of them predicting Hillary winning by a slight margin. Which is basically what happened. However, they weren't adjusted for or considering the EC.
joe1776
Well-Known Member
Trump will go down hard in 2020 and is likely to take the GOP with him.
Questions like the OP asks are difficult to answer because of our biases. I lean strongly to the left. The progressive agendas of Warren and Sanders are mild beginnings in my opinion. So, my prediction might be just wishful thinking.
I think in 2016, many voters understandably were voting against the establishment which Hilary represented. I don't think Trump gave them the kind of change they hoped for so I don't think his reelection is likely. But the Democrats will be repeating a mistake if their nominee is the establishment candidate, Joe Biden.
Progressives are now split between Warren and Sanders. I think that, when voters have only one of them to vote for, they will be energized to go to the polls and vote in big numbers.
I think Trump will go down hard and that it will be better for the Dems if Senate Republicans do not impeach Trump because the GOP will take a beating at the polls as a result.
Questions like the OP asks are difficult to answer because of our biases. I lean strongly to the left. The progressive agendas of Warren and Sanders are mild beginnings in my opinion. So, my prediction might be just wishful thinking.
I think in 2016, many voters understandably were voting against the establishment which Hilary represented. I don't think Trump gave them the kind of change they hoped for so I don't think his reelection is likely. But the Democrats will be repeating a mistake if their nominee is the establishment candidate, Joe Biden.
Progressives are now split between Warren and Sanders. I think that, when voters have only one of them to vote for, they will be energized to go to the polls and vote in big numbers.
I think Trump will go down hard and that it will be better for the Dems if Senate Republicans do not impeach Trump because the GOP will take a beating at the polls as a result.
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Maybe, although much of that would depend on Democrats themselves and how they conduct their own campaign. If they run a campaign based on the theme of "Trump sucks, we hate him," then they'll probably lose. They'd be far better off asking the people what they want, instead of telling the people what they should want.
Not at all. The implication is very clear, some voters, following the flock, vote with the flock. But more than enough voters think for themselves. And that is all I meant, and I have faith in that system, since there isn't anything better on offer.
I was wondering about that, but I also wonder if that's part of his appeal. Similarly, Trump has more rallies with the general public than he has press conferences or interviews. He seems to want to reach out and speak directly to the people, and his supporters respond positively. Most politicians have used intermediaries and prepared press releases to convey their thoughts, which creates a barrier between the politician and the people.
Well, again, a lot of this could be addressed by the Democrats if they really wanted to. They want to bring down Trump, yet they still cling desperately to the same sacred cows that put them in this position in the first place. They still support capitalism, Wall Street, military interventionism, globalism, outsourcing.
It hasn't even dawned on them that maybe, just maybe, they've alienated too many people over the years and that it's largely their own fault that so many have crossed over to the other side. Instead of owning up to their own mistakes, they attribute it all to Trump, as if he has some kind of magical power to persuade and control people's minds. That's what is very wrong in all of this.
I don't see that at all. In fact, I found the @Evangelicalhumanist comment to be both thoughtful and well reasoned.
My major concern stems from the fact that Democracy has been seriously compromised by the Electoral College, extensive gerrymandering, and widespread voter suppression. That, reinforced by the intransigence and moral depravity of the basket of deplorables, Russian meddling, and a Democratic Party somewhat skilled in the art of shooting itself in the foot, suggests that the next election will be far less than a rout. I hope I'm wrong.
tytlyf
Not Religious
You really believe that?