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Is Trump Dying (Politically)?

Discussion in 'North American Politics' started by Sunstone, Nov 18, 2019.

  1. Sunstone

    Sunstone De Diablo Del Fora
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    To be sure, if the 2020 presidential election were held today, I believe Trump would win against just about anyone. The country is far from safe from that terrible infant. So, there's that.

    BUT...

    Trump appears to be headed down. Consider, only 25% of the country believes he did no wrong in the Ukrainian matter. Twenty-five percent! That means -- possibly for the first time in his presidency -- actual millions of his own die-hard supporters now believe he did something wrong. They ain't ready to vote against him yet, but there are cracks in the wall of his support now.

    Further consider. The men Trump quite recently campaigned for in two heavily Republican states --- lost. Both of them. One of them was even five points ahead in the polls before Trump showed up to campaign for him. A couple more defeats along the same lines -- and Trump might no longer be able to keep the Republican senators in line. He has got to be able to get governors and senators elected to keep his support in the Senate.

    Poor guy. He's a waning moon now. He absolutely could still win in 2020, but -- well, things ain't going well for him these days.
     
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  2. leov

    leov Well-Known Member
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    Trump's debacle is about diverting citizen's attention from real problems.
     
  3. Shadow Wolf

    Shadow Wolf Crazy Diamond

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    There are some signs his Republican support is beginning to crack. But I feel if he is impeached, I do believe the senate will be backed into a hard position of guilty or acquit, and they are losing America in respect to acquittal. However, they have shown deep party loyalty, and I do believe that will cost them the Senate. However, Trump has already shown he can win with only a marginal EC win, and if he's impeached he may do it again. But he's going to have s Blue Fury trampling down in him this time around.
     
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  4. Stevicus

    Stevicus Well-Known Member
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    I'm one of those "I won't believe it until I see it" kind of guys, but it does look like Trump will have an uphill fight, to say the least. I don't know if those poll numbers are strong enough to cause enough Republican senators to vote in favor of conviction, but it seems unlikely. The Republicans in the House were unanimously behind Trump, so I would expect the Senate to be much the same.

    Then, it's only a matter of the Democrats picking a strong enough candidate to oppose Trump, but that's where it gets all the more complicated.

    It's 351 days until the election, in case anyone is counting.
     
  5. Jose Fly

    Jose Fly Fisker of men

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    Not only that, but we're only one week into public impeachment hearings. So whatever the polls show now, will likely change over the next month.

    IMO, it's going to come down to one or two things. If Ambassador Sondland testifies that President Trump directly told him to convey to the Ukrainians that the military aid and such was contingent upon them announcing investigations into Bidens/Burisma/2016, and/or if the courts rule that John Bolton has to testify and he testifies similarly (that he discussed it directly with Trump), the only recourse Senate Republicans will have at that point is to argue....yeah sure, that was wrong, but it's not impeachable. I honestly have no idea if there are enough Senate Republicans who would be willing to make that argument.
     
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  6. leov

    leov Well-Known Member
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    No way Trump will be harmed in Senate.
     
  7. Evangelicalhumanist

    Evangelicalhumanist "Truth" isn't a thing...
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    Possibly not -- but then the voting public will have to decide for themselves if there was wrong-doing, and if there was, why did the Republicans choose to overlook it.

    I guess it may come down to how many sheep will be voting, and how many American voters actually put just a modicum of thought into how they cast their ballot.

    I'm going to put my faith in democracy -- as I always have (even when it doesn't go my way).
     
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  8. Stevicus

    Stevicus Well-Known Member
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    Maybe. The Senate could simply vote to quash the articles of impeachment and not even hold a trial. One pretext they could use is related to their loud and frequent complaints about how "unfair" the House Democrats have been in the process. Phrases like "witch hunt" and "kangaroo court" get tossed about, and with Democrats in control of the House committees, the Republicans are arguing that it's all politically motivated. So, they might summarily dismiss the articles of impeachment based on that.

    I think the Democrats probably knew this going in, but if the Senate does vote against impeachment, it could make enough Republicans look bad that the Democrats might be able to gain control of the Senate. Then, if Trump wins in 2020, they can have another crack at him. A third of the senators are up for election next year.
     
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  9. Evangelicalhumanist

    Evangelicalhumanist "Truth" isn't a thing...
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    Then I suggest that, though Trump is saying he will "seriously consider" testifying (even if only in writing), he'd better not. Because when the supposedly "unfair" process permits him to speak, publicly, without censor, for himself, then that process has just demonstrated that it is, in fact, not unfair. He'll be better off pretending that he's being deliberately denied his own voice in his own defence.
     
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  10. Shadow Wolf

    Shadow Wolf Crazy Diamond

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    That remains to be seen. Senators have reelection. If it doesn't favor their reelection to support Trump, they will abandon him.
     
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  11. Shadow Wolf

    Shadow Wolf Crazy Diamond

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    The senate does not get to vote on impeachment.
     
  12. Evangelicalhumanist

    Evangelicalhumanist "Truth" isn't a thing...
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    In the end, our highest loyalty must be to our own self. That sounds selfish, but I think it is a reasonable position to take. And for that reason, yes, some Republican Senators (other than just Romney) will jump ship.
     
  13. leov

    leov Well-Known Member
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    Lets get more of popcorn...
     
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  14. Stevicus

    Stevicus Well-Known Member
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    Sure they can. They can summarily dismiss the articles of impeachment without a trial.
     
  15. Stevicus

    Stevicus Well-Known Member
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    Well, yes, he can certainly testify, although I'm not sure if it would make much of a difference. He certainly already has his own platform where he can speak publicly, without censor, for himself. He doesn't have to testify for that.
     
  16. Shadow Wolf

    Shadow Wolf Crazy Diamond

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    The House votes on impeachment. The Senate votes on whether or not the impeached/accused is guilty.
     
  17. Jose Fly

    Jose Fly Fisker of men

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    I don't see that happening if Sondland testifies that Trump told him directly to carry out this scheme, even moreso if Bolton also says he and Trump discussed it in person.

    Possibly, but that's a bit of a stretch IMO.
     
  18. Stevicus

    Stevicus Well-Known Member
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    The one thing that brought Nixon down was his obsession with having a taping system in the White House. Once they got wind of the fact that all of his conversations were taped, Congress definitely wanted those tapes.

    The timing is curious. I mean, they've had three years to initiate impeachment proceedings. People have been calling for it; they've been wanting to do it. But they put the idea on hold, and only now, they actually start doing it. Meanwhile in the background, a lot of people are already talking about Trump winning in 2020, and we haven't even had the first primary yet.
     
  19. Stevicus

    Stevicus Well-Known Member
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    The articles of impeachment are sent to the Senate.
     
  20. Jollybear

    Jollybear Hey

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    You just called the voters sheep, yet said youl put your faith in democracy. Smells like a contradiction there if ya ask me.
     
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