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I was wrong

Discussion in 'General Debates' started by Heyo, Nov 14, 2020.

  1. Heyo

    Heyo Well-Known Member

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    On April 3rd I wrote:

    "I hope you are right but my prediction is still that Dr. Fauci was too optimistic in his (initial) prediction.
    Do you really think the US is capable to contain a virus that has spread all over the US? To keep the case numbers below 10,000,000 you'd have to quarantine 320,000,000 people so long as to prevent them from coming in contact with an infected person. Do you think that's realistic given the mentality in the US?"

    Dr. Fauci's initial prediction was an upper bound for deaths in the US from Covid-19 this year at 200,000. I thought that was too optimistic. Dr. Fauci corrected his prediction to 240,000 deaths. I agreed that that was a realistic number.

    Well, I was wrong.
    Today the WHO Covid-19 Dashboard reports more than 240,000 deaths, and more than 10,000,000 cases.
    WHO Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) Dashboard
    (The WHO has one of the more conservative tickers, others are at nearly 250,000. COVID-19 Dashboard USA)

    What can we learn from that?
    Take my predictions with a grain of salt because I'm just too optimistic.
     
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  2. Terrywoodenpic

    Terrywoodenpic Oldest Heretic

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    It would seem the USA is far too late to even think about containing Covid now.
    that horse is well over the horizon.
    I would suggest that the final death toll will be well over a million, and then only if a vaccine is deployed for free. and very soon.

    Covid is here to stay, as are annual vaccinations likely to be. The death toll and "Long Covid" are sure to be serious annual health risks well into the future.

    "long Covid" with all it's inherent health and long term care problems, are likely to require a whole new Health and social support strategy.
    Health insurance will not give sufficient cover, and the various "Free health" schemes are not adequately funded to cope.

    When you think that Covid spread though out the USA starting from a handful of cases, and has grown, in only a few months, to the present size. When it could easily have been contained at that early stage, but the authorities failed to do so.

    Now compare that to the present situation, where Covid is rife in every corner of the USA and growing exponentially.
    It is clear that there is no chance at all, to contain it, whatever the government choses to do.

    Trump is guaranteed a permanent legacy of his incompetence, in a permanent annual death toll, and a growing population struck down with the effects of "Long Covid."

    Long Covid: What is it, what are the symptoms and what help is there? | ITV News
     
    #2 Terrywoodenpic, Nov 14, 2020
    Last edited: Nov 14, 2020
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  3. exchemist

    exchemist Veteran Member

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    :D
     
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  4. stvdv

    stvdv Veteran Member

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    I think your prediction was good, you only did not calculate Trump promoting to NOT use a face mask; Trump ****ed up your prediction:D
     
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  5. ChristineM

    ChristineM "Be strong" I whispered to my coffee.
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    Although i see your humility here i can only say you made a good prediction only screwed up by the ******** in chief
     
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  6. Heyo

    Heyo Well-Known Member

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    Even though it is popular to blame Trump for everything, I can't blame my failed prediction on him. I already knew that he wouldn't be a positive influence and I explicitly named the mentality in the US as a source of my prediction.
    Maybe I should take a hint from Douglas Hofstadter and formulate
    Heyo's Law: You can't put an upper bound to stupidity - even if you take Heyo's Law into account.
     
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  7. Jayhawker Soule

    Jayhawker Soule <yawn> ignore </yawn>
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    MU!
     
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  8. stvdv

    stvdv Veteran Member

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    I don't blame Trump for everything, but no mask for Corona needs to be repeated until he admits he was wrong with that (or corona stops)

    Okay, I will blame it on you then. Below a valuable and useful hint, keeping ourselves humble and wise

    My Master always says "You know how you can make God laugh? .... tell Him your plans (predictions falls in this category)"

    Making predictions is just a silly thing to do, unless you are omniscient. And those who are omniscient, they don't make predictions; funny isn't it?
     
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  9. Heyo

    Heyo Well-Known Member

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    :)
    Making predictions is testing a theory/understanding. If you understand gravity, you can predict where a thrown object will land. If you understand pandemics and how people react to them, you can predict infection and death rates. If your prediction is off, you know that your model is incomplete.
     
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  10. sun rise

    sun rise "This is the Hour of God"
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    Count me as another. I thought that people in general would take this more seriously than they have not only in the US but in Europe as well. Even China was the most restrictive totalitarian government controlling every aspect of people's lives has struggled to contain the virus. Even in mask-wearing cultures like Japan, we see a steady growth in cases.

    Not only in the US but Europe as well, there are multitudes who refuse to be sensible choosing instead their momentary selfish satisfaction over their own best interest and the interest of their neighbors by wearing a mask, distancing etc.

    Loving your neighbor has now become a pro-survival stance.
     
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  11. stvdv

    stvdv Veteran Member

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    Aha, right. I was thinking about prophecy prediction types. What you describe, that is useful:)
     
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