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How Accurate Is The Covid-19 Death Toll

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by esmith, May 28, 2020.

  1. esmith

    esmith Veteran Member

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  2. Wandering Monk

    Wandering Monk Well-Known Member

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    In the UK, there are a very high number of deaths above the norm of the last decade or so. 75% of those excess deaths have been confirmed with Covid tests or listed as probable.

    If NYC is any kind of barometer, 57% were confirmed with tests. 21% were probable. This is very near the UK numbers.

    Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 Outbreak — New York City, March 11–May 2, 2020

    During March 11–May 2, 2020, a total of 32,107 deaths were reported to DOHMH; of these deaths, 24,172 (95% confidence interval = 22,980–25,364) were found to be in excess of the seasonal expected baseline. Included in the 24,172 deaths were 13,831 (57%) laboratory-confirmed COVID-19–associated deaths and 5,048 (21%) probable COVID-19–associated deaths, leaving 5,293 (22%) excess deaths that were not identified as either laboratory-confirmed or probable COVID-19–associated deaths (Figure).

    upload_2020-5-28_22-8-30.png

    Preliminary Estimate of Excess Mortality During the COVID-19 ...
     
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  3. Sunstone

    Sunstone De Diablo Del Fora
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    If you happen to be among those dead from it, the toll is pretty darn accurate.
     
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  4. Sunstone

    Sunstone De Diablo Del Fora
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    Seriously, even if is inaccurate by 10 points going either way, what practical difference would it make to most of us? 80,000 to 110,000 deaths is still quite concerning.
     
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  5. Lyndon

    Lyndon "Peace is the answer" quote: GOD, 2014
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    Excess death reporting seem to put the actual death toll closer to 150,000, but this does include people who didn't die of Covid but died because they couldn't or didn't get hospital care because of Covid.
     
  6. Shadow Wolf

    Shadow Wolf Rival's Wife

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    I would hope that frequent statements that the death toll reported is underestimated will help get mpre people taking this seriously and realuzing just how dire this "little flu" really is.
     
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  7. Heyo

    Heyo Well-Known Member

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    I would hope that scientific data is not used as a propaganda tool.
    Inaccurate or misleading statements only lead to mistrust in science.
     
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  8. ChristineM

    ChristineM "Be strong" I whispered to my coffee.
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    For the first few weeks of the outbreak the UK government were ignoring the CV19 associated deaths at home and in care homes because doctors could not visit the deceased to issue a death certificate. Only hospital deaths were counted.


    I also understand that many deaths are attributed to underlying causes such as lung conditions aggrivated by CV19. Most of these deaths are among people who would have had long, active lives without CV19 but are listed as dying from their existing illness, not coronavirus.
     
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  9. Erebus

    Erebus Well-Known Member

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    Yep. In the UK at least, the figures we have for coronavirus deaths very much represent the lowest estimate.



    To some extent the death toll for coronavirus is always going to be a rough estimate. When we're talking about tens of thousands of deaths, it's inevitable that at least some mistakes will be made. However, this doesn't diminish the significance of the pandemic and those inaccuracies are far more likely to skew the figures more towards the lower end at any rate.
     
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  10. ChristineM

    ChristineM "Be strong" I whispered to my coffee.
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    In france at least 9000 care home deaths from CV19 have not been included in the official death count. In several other European countries it is the same story. I have no reason to believe the rest of the world is any different.
     
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  11. Heyo

    Heyo Well-Known Member

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    Except for England and Sweden the excess mortality is pretty low all over Europe.

    https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
     
  12. oldbadger

    oldbadger Skanky Old Mongrel!

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    Look...... If you all want to dismiss this illness and carry on as before ...... Good luck with that.
     
  13. ChristineM

    ChristineM "Be strong" I whispered to my coffee.
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