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Hoover Institute video on Mathematical Challenges to Darwin's Theory

Dan From Smithville

What we've got here is failure to communicate.
Staff member
Premium Member
Is ID pseudoscience because it brings God into the equation?
Maybe regular science is pseudoscience because it presumes no God.
The whole thing of determining what happened in the past rests on one or the other of those presumptions. So why is the ID presumption pseudo and not the other?
The mathematics used in the video seems to point to the conclusion that the regular science presumption of no designer is wrong (from a probability standpoint). This does not mean that evolution is wrong, just the idea that it happened without a designer. So the mathematics is showing that a God is needed, not that evolution is wrong imo.
Occam's razor in this case would just go with a designer to overcome the mathematical problems OR just allow ID to be a non pseudoscience just as regular science with it's presumption of no God is not called a pseudoscience. God is not another problem that science has to fathom, God is still just something that is left to the theologians but allowed back into science just as the presumption of no God is allowed into science.
That way the theists in science and the atheists should be happy. (But that won't be the case of course)
It is pseudoscience, since it offers no testable hypotheses and no evidence. Bringing in God has nothing to do with a determination of pseudoscience.
 

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
That sounds like any claims that says that God was not involved. This cannot be tested.
So this is who science is neutral on God.
But is it true that information always leads back to a mind and not to a material process?
If it is true then God is a serious scientific hypothesis, who may never be proven but serious proposed.
No. One conceivably could say "God did it" but one would still need evidence of that. ID is pseudoscience because their only claim amounts to God did it. No evidence of that is given.
 

Yerda

Veteran Member
Is ID pseudoscience because it brings God into the equation?
ID proponents claim it very specifically doesn't bring God into the equation.

Brian2 said:
Maybe regular science is pseudoscience because it presumes no God.
Regular science doesn't assume no God. Doesn't assume no djinns, elves or kelpies either. It just doesn't need to talk about these things to model the world.
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
I can see why ID might be seen as a science stopper but that does not mean that science actually can answer all questions even if people are curious about natural answers.
For a theist in science things were intelligently designed and the refusal of a designer into science does in the end make science into a joke where the best naturalistic explanation that has been speculated is accepted over an intelligent designer for no other reason than presupposition.
Do you think that the idea that intelligence can be inferred from scientific evidence to be a good inference given that information always leads us back to a mind and not to a material process?
Science does not pretend to answer all questions. It answers questions about nature, based on reproducible observation and the formation of testable hypotheses. Where it doesn't know, it is happy to say so - and that area of nature becomes the focus of research. If science had all the answers, nobody would do any science any more.

What is objectionable about ID is that it pretends to be science, when it is no more than a Trojan horse for one (rather naïve) variety of religion. As a practising Catholic I have no objection to religion being taught in schools, but not in science classes. I strongly object to having the discipline of science corrupted by bogus ideas, introduced in a duplicitous manner.

As for designers (i.e. God), the success of science after the Renaissance was due to the avoidance of relying on "God did it" explanations for natural phenomena. Most of the early scientists had religious belief. Indeed one common view was that they were uncovering the marvellous intricacy of the world that God had created. Plenty of scientists today have religious belief too. But neither they, nor their post-Renaissance forbears, try to put God into their theories of nature, because that immediately makes them cease to be science.
 
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Jayhawker Soule

-- untitled --
Premium Member
The part about the Cambrian explosion is interesting.
Good grief! From punctuated equilibrium to punctuated delirium ...

Apparently, it being an awkward time to peddle Trump, some turn briefly to peddling another form of crap.​
 

Yerda

Veteran Member
Indeed one common view was that they were uncovering the marvellous intricacy of the world that God had created.
I was studying the biosciences when I first encountered the creationists and also the science-resenters (not quite deniers but often convinced science was some plot to keep their theology down). The overwhelming complexity and beautiful intricacy of the millions of things happening in every cell in every living thing on Earth seemed to me then (and still) as something of a miracle. If I'd been into God I'd have leapt all over this as confirmation of how spectacularly great God would have to be to have created this world. How huge the chasm between intelligence like ours that can discover this and the intelligence that could make a world that gives rise to it.
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
I was studying the biosciences when I first encountered the creationists and also the science-resenters (not quite deniers but often convinced science was some plot to keep their theology down). The overwhelming complexity and beautiful intricacy of the millions of things happening in every cell in every living thing on Earth seemed to me then (and still) as something of a miracle. If I'd been into God I'd have leapt all over this as confirmation of how spectacularly great God would have to be to have created this world. How huge the chasm between intelligence like ours that can discover this and the intelligence that could make a world that gives rise to it.
Yes exactly. I'm sure plenty of people are struck by the same feeling today. But thinking that way leads to a far more subtle idea of the Creator than these ID people seem to be able to grasp. In the end it is the fundamental order in nature, what we sometimes call the "laws" of nature, that we have to take on trust because there is no deeper explanation of why they are as they are, where metaphysics comes into things. Indeed Spinoza and Einstein seem to have had the idea that the laws of nature ARE what we mean when we speak of God. (The personal God of Christianity requires something more than this of course.)
 

Father Heathen

Veteran Member
It's not an hour of creationist apologetics. Stephen Meyer is the only ID in the group (except maybe the interviewer)
David Berlinski is an atheist (or agnostic) I think and David Gelernter seems to be in between Meyer and Berlinski theologically.
Actually Stephen Meyer shows that intelligence is an inference of scientific evidence, and the 3 of them together seem to roundly condemn the bigotry in Western academia and science concerning Darwinism and say that the inference of a designer must be answered intellectually and not in the religiously bigoted way that it is answered in academia.

It's not bigotry to reject that which doesn't withstand scientific rigor.

2013-updated_scientific-method-steps_v6_noheader.png
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
The part about the Cambrian explosion is interesting.


The Discovery Institute is a collection of professional liars.

Don't take *anything* they say at face value.

The main characteristic of the 'Cambrian explosion' is the development of hard body parts (shells, bones), which allowed for a much larger range of preservation than before.

That is why there are so many 'body plans' at that point with no obvious precursors: the earlier forms weren't preserved. But, we *do* know of some earlier forms.

Their first argument is one of simple disbelief: they can't see how small changes add up to larger changes over ore generations. Their second argument is the misrepresentation of the Cambrian 'explosion'. The third is a misrepresentation of how new proteins form (usually by duplication and subsequent mutation).

They are playing off the ignorance of their audience.
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
Plus the phrase "Cambrian explosion" is misleading. From a geological perspective it appears to be very fast, but it was still tens of millions of years long. From a biological perspective it is not all that fast.

Especially when you think that the time involved is longer than the time since the dinosaurs lived.

Look at how much mammalian evolution happened in an equivalent time period (not to mention birds, and other branches of life).
 

Polymath257

Think & Care
Staff member
Premium Member
Is ID pseudoscience because it brings God into the equation?
Maybe regular science is pseudoscience because it presumes no God.
The whole thing of determining what happened in the past rests on one or the other of those presumptions. So why is the ID presumption pseudo and not the other?
The mathematics used in the video seems to point to the conclusion that the regular science presumption of no designer is wrong (from a probability standpoint). This does not mean that evolution is wrong, just the idea that it happened without a designer. So the mathematics is showing that a God is needed, not that evolution is wrong imo.
Occam's razor in this case would just go with a designer to overcome the mathematical problems OR just allow ID to be a non pseudoscience just as regular science with it's presumption of no God is not called a pseudoscience. God is not another problem that science has to fathom, God is still just something that is left to the theologians but allowed back into science just as the presumption of no God is allowed into science.
That way the theists in science and the atheists should be happy. (But that won't be the case of course)

As a mathematician, be wary of any probability calculations that simply multiply probabilities together. That is, in essence, an assumption of independence that is seldom true in biology or chemistry.

Again, the Discovery Institute is a collection of professional liars. They have been informed, repeatedly, how their facts are wrong and still continue to use the falsehoods. That is simple dishonesty.
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
It's not bigotry to reject that which doesn't withstand scientific rigor.

2013-updated_scientific-method-steps_v6_noheader.png

Yes, sort of, but it is worth bearing in mind that this is very idealised. In practice, the cycle can start with observation or with a hypothesis and can go back and forth somewhat untidily among the steps. Nobody in my experience is ever taught this flow scheme when they are learning science.

The crucial point is that a scientific theory must be testable by observation (not necessarily "experiment" - laboratories and people in white coats are not mandatory).
 

It Aint Necessarily So

Veteran Member
Premium Member
Could we see their calculations?

Do you need to? This is Hoyle's fallacy, the one using a 747 being assembled in a junkyard by a tornado. The mathematics is useless because the way the problem is set up is flawed even before the first calculation occurs. It assumes that the various biological steps are independent the way that the steps of assembling a 747 would be, and simply multiplies the likelihood of the individual steps to come up with an astronomical number. That's not how biological systems increase in complexity. The steps are not independent, because a process that directs them is involved - natural selection of the most fecund - something the airplane doesn't enjoy.

An analogy would be a planet forming from countless gas, dust, and rock particles. It would be an error to calculate the odds of these pieces finding one another and coming together as it there weren't a directing process involved - gravity. As the planetesimal grows larger, the odds of additional pieces coming to it are increased. And they will form into a spheroid if massive enough under this direction.

Is ID pseudoscience because it brings God into the equation?

It's pseudoscience because it is looking for God. Science doesn't do that. Science looks at the universe to see what is there and to try to identify its repeating patterns. This needs to be done without expectation of finding a god. We know that if one does that, he is likely to "see" what he is looking for - a cognitive bias that deforms the scientific method. And not surprisingly, they kept finding mirages of irreducible complexity, all debunked.

This is a well-known cognitive bias - confirmation bias. It's the problem that is addressed when designing clinical trials and double blinding the patients and clinicians so that they don't "see" what they are hoping to find.

Maybe regular science is pseudoscience because it presumes no God.

It doesn't. Others have told you this on this thread, and I have told you myself. Science does not say that there is no god. Neither does agnostic atheism.

Have you noticed any differences between what is called science and what is called pseudoscience? Let me give you a few examples of each, the pseudoscience coming first in each case: astrology and astronomy, alchemy and chemistry, bloodletting and scientific medicine, creationism and cosmology, creationism and evolution. What do all of the pseudosciences have in common that is different from all of the sciences? The pseudosciences are based in principles believed by faith, such as that the positions of the stars determine personalities and fates, or that a deity made the universe and life in six days by fiat ex nihilo, and that the pseudosciences are all sterile, that is, generate no useful ideas.

The mathematics used in the video seems to point to the conclusion that the regular science presumption of no designer is wrong (from a probability standpoint).

If one can't evaluate himself directly, the mathematics should not be taken seriously if it comes from an apologetics site. Their agenda, methods, and values are incompatible with humanism or science.

In case you want to call that the genetic fallacy, I would disagree. For starters, that occurs when one says the argument is wrong because of its source. That is not what I am saying. I am saying that I don't trust the source and am unwilling to do the necessary fact checking to make an assessment of whether I buy the argument or not. That came home to me when reading some creationist apologetics arguing that human evolution from the ancestors of other extant great apes was impossible, since the other apes all have 24 pairs of chromosomes and man only 23. The argument was that if these other apes had a common ancestor, it could not have been an ancestor of man, since no chromosome dropout mutation is survivable, much less selected for. I happen to have been aware of human chromosome 2, and could rapidly reject the argument, but what if I hadn't been? The argument presented was sound. The conclusions followed from the premises provided. The facts provided could be confirmed, and the subsequent reasoning flawless. Yet the conclusion was false anyway.

It's the same argument for not going to a known or suspected dishonest investment counselor. He makes his presentation, and it seems like a good investment. The facts provided can be corroborated. If he were a trusted source of investment advice, you might take his advice based on that sound presentation. But this guy? Don't even listen to him. And that's not the genetic fallacy, either, since I'm not concluding that he is lying, just that I don't care to find out if he is or put him to the test..
 

It Aint Necessarily So

Veteran Member
Premium Member
Occam's razor in this case would just go with a designer to overcome the mathematical problems

The mathematical problem and the data provided here are imagined by theists like Hoyle. They need a deity to explain their 747 version of evolution, where proteins are built like they're in a windstorm and the amino acids need to randomly come together in a specified time and place in a specified order. Reality is different. Inserting an intelligent designer into science adds no explanatory or predictive value, and so is not done according to Occam's razor.

It's not an hour of creationist apologetics. Stephen Meyer is the only ID in the group (except maybe the interviewer) David Berlinski is an atheist (or agnostic) I think and David Gelernter seems to be in between Meyer and Berlinski theologically. Actually Stephen Meyer shows that intelligence is an inference of scientific evidence, and the 3 of them together seem to roundly condemn the bigotry in Western academia and science concerning Darwinism and say that the inference of a designer must be answered intellectually and not in the religiously bigoted way that it is answered in academia.

Religious apologists all. There is nothing factual known only to the religious. If they get a hold of a fact and post it in one of their sites or other resources, it is not because it is a fact, but because they think it supports their beliefs.

And if it is a fact, it will appear elsewhere than in apologetics sites such as the paper where it originated - sources acceptable to critical thinkers. Reference those, please, if they exist. And if they don't, then what you've got is fiction.

Are you (or whoever) saying that it is not allowed in science to hypothesise an intelligence behind the universe?

Sure it's allowed. Recommended, even. One should consider that possibility. I have. It might even be correct. But hypothesizing isn't enough.

possible mechanisms that disprove irreducible complexity does not mean that those mechanisms happened or that the time involved and probability for those things to have happened has been shown to be reasonable for the acceptance of those mechanisms.

It's enough to show that nature is up to the task. This is how abiogenesis will progress. Eventually, multiple paths from simple chemical substances to life will likely be discovered, and we will never know which of them if any actually transpired, but that's enough. Creationism will never be seriously considered as long as naturalistic processes are sufficient to account for observations.

Actually the invocation of natural causes in all circumstances is imo just as pseudoscience as the invocation of a God.

According to you, there is no such thing as science, just pseudoscience. To date, science has needed nothing more than the laws of nature to explain how the universe works and how it got to be this way.

David Berlinski is against evolution but does not support ID. It seems like bigotry to call people dishonest hacks.

The ID people are as dishonest as any other type of religious apologist, like the one I described above who left human chromosome 2 out of his apologetics. That's what I mean by a different agenda, value, and methods. Their agenda is to promote their religions, not discover how the universe works. They value faith over empiricism and consider lying doing God's work.

that does not mean that science actually can answer all questions even if people are curious about natural answers.

Yes, we know. But it is the case that if science (empiricism) can't answer a question about reality, it can't be answered except with sterile guesses. The religions are looking for a place for their god and their dicta, and so make idle speculations about metaphysical topics and want them taken seriously as an alternate magisterium, as if this were knowledge.

For a theist in science things were intelligently designed and the refusal of a designer into science does in the end make science into a joke where the best naturalistic explanation that has been speculated is accepted over an intelligent designer for no other reason than presupposition.

Occam's razor teaches us that naturalistic explanations are preferred wherever possible. One can always clutter any idea with additional inclusions into a narrative that account for and explain no observation, but why? Why throw in a god where none is needed? And if one is willing to do so, why stop there? Maybe a leprechaun, too. Or two gods. Or four gods and a baby. Why not? Let's throw them into Newton's Laws. For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction and also an angel get its wings. More? And Jesus smiles. And a child is born to a virgin. Why not? The science still works.
 
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