Ecological Transition: EVs will replace all ICE cars

[Pete in Panama]

Just one thing about my country. The enormous unfathomable gap between boomers and millennials.
The 70% of cars nowadays in my country are owned by boomers...

--and 87.4% of all numbers bandied about have been found to be simply made up by people like me who don't care about what the actual numbers are.

...Boomers have all made children (us millennials, basically). The 95% did.
We millennials don't make children. Do you know how many people made children in my high school class of 25 people? Five people. Five. Out of Twenty-five....

Wait a sec, so you millennials DO in fact make children. Seriously, the most recent Census Bur. numbers have the U.S. population growing thanks to immigration...

There will be, soon, in few decades, a collapse of the population. There will be much less cars...and people will have to choose.

The powerful elites of the EU desperately try to fill Europe with migrants and illegals. But these will never be able to afford a car, whether EV or ICE car.

Right now about a fourth of the U.S. population is foreign born, and my bet is that this 80 some million own a LOT of cars. The numbers we got show that there are a lot of cars owned by folks w/ very little income and other numbers show that the unemployment rate of foreign born is actually LOWER than that of natives.

 

[Pete in Panama]

No, you are living in the past. You should do your own homework. Solar is the cheapest energy today. Close followed by onshore wind energy.

lol! OK, aside from proving that you're the good guy & I'm the bad guy, the comparison of costs gets into a comparison of up front capital versus operation/maintenance, not to mention externalized costs (batteries etc.). Just the same, if we start w/ this--

--it's hard to "prove" that renewables are cheaper.

 

[Estro Felino]

--and 87.4% of all numbers bandied about have been found to be simply made up by people like me who don't care about what the actual numbers are.Wait a sec, so you millennials DO in fact make children. Seriously, the most recent Census Bur. numbers have the U.S. population growing thanks to immigration...Right now about a fourth of the U.S. population is foreign born, and my bet is that this 80 some million own a LOT of cars. The numbers we got show that there are a lot of cars owned by folks w/ very little income and other numbers show that the unemployment rate of foreign born is actually LOWER than that of natives.

The possession of the car is not what creates traffic. Traffic is whenever you use the car, and you don't need to.
For example...your workplace is 500 meters away (or even one mile away) from your home.
Do you take the car? Why should you?
You can go on foot, or ride the bicycle. Or if there is the bus, you can take it.
Then people wonder why obesity is a thing in the US.

 

[Subduction Zone]

lol! OK, aside from proving that you're the good guy & I'm the bad guy, the comparison of costs gets into a comparison of up front capital versus operation/maintenance, not to mention externalized costs (batteries etc.). Just the same, if we start w/ this--

--it's hard to "prove" that renewables are cheaper.

Your own source rates onshore wind as cheapest. It is also out of date. That was nine years ago. Solar is cheapest now.

One thing that you should remember is that solar and wind technology are "new". They have not had over a hundred years of intense research going into them Which means that they have dropped in cost over the last few years where fossil fuels are mainly dependent on the cost of the fuel for their prices today. So they tend to rise. And many deniers of technology ignore the fact that fossil fuels are heavily subsidized. The users of them are not responsible for cleaning up their mess. How would you feel if your neighbor was free to dump his trash on your property because it had been going on for a long time? I think that it would be fair to make him pay for cleaning it up.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/electricity_generation.pdf

 

[Pete in Panama]

Your own source rates onshore wind as cheapest. It is also out of date. That was nine years ago...

--and outside of the fact that these are the only numbers presented so far...

 

[Subduction Zone]

--and outside of the fact that these are the only numbers presented so far...

You can find quite a few sources that support it. You had to search for an out of date source to support your claims. The reduction of solar power cost even has its own name, Swanson's Law:

 

[Pete in Panama]

You can find quite a few sources that support it. You had to search for an out of date source to support your claims. The reduction of solar power cost even has its own name, Swanson's Law:

View attachment 71868

Sounds good! So I'm assuming that we both understand that a quick search gets this:

https://www.solarreviews.com › solar-panel-cost
How Much Do Solar Panels Cost? (2023 Installation Prices)
Jan 3, 2023The average cost of a residential solar panel installation in 2022 ranges between $18,000 and $20,000, before applying tax credits or other incentives that may be available where you live. This works out to between $2.75 and $3.35 per watt of solar installed, depending on your location and the brands of solar equipment used.​

--and a typical home uses say 50KW peak usage (make that 100KW if ur in a temperate zone & need to charge up everything in 8 hours for maybe say 25KW round the clock if u got a super battery system w/ inverters, so the system should be about 100,000 x $3 = $300K for just the panels alone, probably another $10K or $20K for the battery setup that will have to be replaced every 2 or 3 years.

A lot more expensive than the $100/month on the grid for the same power from here:

https://news.energysage.com › electricity-cost-by-state
How Much Does Electricity Cost in Each State? | EnergySage
Mar 22, 2022As of March 2022, the average residential electricity rate in the U.S. is 15.45 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh). That's a 1.11% increase over the last six months. Importantly, electricity rates can vary widely based on where you live. Rates vary from a low of 10.43 ¢ / kWh in Idaho to a high of 24.99 ¢ / kWh in California.​

 

[Twilight Hue]

3 wheels at 80mph?
Hah!
That thing would easily start bouncing like a football.

3 wheel cars are best limited to cartoons.

I think the Reliant Robin was manufactured to bypass taxation fees.

It's still has spacefaring potential as well!

 

[metis]

Quite possibly. My intent is to be living in the present, and to do that I work w/ info that's come to me --info that was created in the past. Let's not get into predictions about the future, they can become far too controversial.

Hydro power can be cheaper some places, but more often than not most cases find that wind and solar are much more expensive because they consume too much of the most costly resources of our environment. Their increased use is the result of increased subsidies that you're making me pay for.

I prefer not.

So, to hell with our kid's and grandkid's future? Not this guy.

 

[Pete in Panama]

...Solar is the cheapest energy today. Close followed by onshore wind energy.

--and what we see is 97% of homes not powered by solar. You can't believe that so many are simply ignorant or obstinate.

Current cost of solar panels run at about $3 per watt, and to provide the 20kw a home needs 24/7 we'd have to have 3 or 4 times that on line for when the sun's available. Add to that the deep cycle batteries and inverters. It's no wonder that almost everyone just stays on the grid.

 

[Pete in Panama]

So, to hell with our kid's and grandkid's future? Not this guy.

It's true that a lot of folks are sinking more and more into bizarre behavior because of their excessive doom'n'gloom prognostications. It's not healthy.

It's much more reasonable to believe what happened in the past and what's happening now will happen tomorrow. I understand that not everyone feels that way but it's our reality and we need to live w/ it.

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

It's true that a lot of folks are sinking more and more into bizarre behavior because of their excessive doom'n'gloom prognostications. It's not healthy.

It's much more reasonable to believe what happened in the past and what's happening now will happen tomorrow. I understand that not everyone feels that way but it's our reality and we need to live w/ it.

That is called burrying your head in the sand.

 

[Subduction Zone]

--and what we see is 97% of homes not powered by solar. You can't believe that so many are simply ignorant or obstinate.

Current cost of solar panels run at about $3 per watt, and to provide the 20kw a home needs 24/7 we'd have to have 3 or 4 times that on line for when the sun's available. Add to that the deep cycle batteries and inverters. It's no wonder that almost everyone just stays on the grid.

Yes, there is this teeny tiny thing called infrastructure.

 

[Pete in Panama]

That is called burrying your head in the sand.

We can agree that burying one's head in the sand (so to speak) is wrong. The idiom suggests that there is a clear and present danger. I'm looking and I don't see it. What are you looking at?

 

[Pete in Panama]

Yes, there is this teeny tiny thing called infrastructure.

Please forgive, I'm missing how that would make people overlook the heavy costs of solar. Can u help me out on this?

 

[Subduction Zone]

Please forgive, I'm missing how that would make people overlook the heavy costs of solar. Can u help me out on this?

What makes you think that solar has heavy costs? Infrastructure is part of the cost of any power source. When one is making constructing a new source solar is the cheapest source of energy. Over its lifetime it will be cheaper than coal, or oil, or natural gas, And that is with today's prices. The prices of fossil fuels can only go up. If they are taxed appropriately they will go up enormously.

Yes, subsidies were part of what made wind and solar possible. There were also subsidies for oil and coal in the past when they were first used.. They are still heavily subsidized today since they are grossly undertaxed.

There are all sorts of infrastructure improvements that we have been putting off for a very long time. But at any rate we will continue to need new power sources as old ones get too aged to work properly and as demand increases. For those new demands the cheapest answer will be renewable energy.

 

[Heyo]

What makes you think that solar has heavy costs? Infrastructure is part of the cost of any power source. When one is making constructing a new source solar is the cheapest source of energy. Over its lifetime it will be cheaper than coal, or oil, or natural gas, And that is with today's prices. The prices of fossil fuels can only go up. If they are taxed appropriately they will go up enormously.

Yes, subsidies were part of what made wind and solar possible. There were also subsidies for oil and coal in the past when they were first used.. They are still heavily subsidized today since they are grossly undertaxed.

There are all sorts of infrastructure improvements that we have been putting off for a very long time. But at any rate we will continue to need new power sources as old ones get too aged to work properly and as demand increases. For those new demands the cheapest answer will be renewable energy.

Don't forget the power lines. That is a big part of the infrastructure that can't be handled by private citizens and may not even by big energy companies.
When we have a nice steady wind, the lines are running hot and wind turbines have to be taken out of the wind because the energy can't be transported.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Don't forget the power lines. That is a big part of the infrastructure that can't be handled by private citizens and may not even by big energy companies.
When we have a nice steady wind, the lines are running hot and wind turbines have to be taken out of the wind because the energy can't be transported.

Texas and California both have shown us that no matter what we need to redo our power lines now. We might as well beef them up for the future. There is no point in improving them "just enough".

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

We can agree that burying one's head in the sand (so to speak) is wrong. The idiom suggests that there is a clear and present danger. I'm looking and I don't see it. What are you looking at?

The preliminary effect of global warming are both clear and measurable.
This will not improve unless we behave differently.
To continue as we are and expect a different result is the definition of stupidity.

 

[metis]

It's true that a lot of folks are sinking more and more into bizarre behavior because of their excessive doom'n'gloom prognostications. It's not healthy.

These are the result of scientific research that's been done for two centuries and counting.

It's much more reasonable to believe what happened in the past and what's happening now will happen tomorrow. I understand that not everyone feels that way but it's our reality and we need to live w/ it.

The causation now is different as we now well know.

As a scientist, now retired, I go with the science, not politics and not someone's whim.