Dr. Fauci predicts between 100 000 and 200 000 Americans will die.

[fantome profane]

Dr. Fauci predicts 100K to 200K Americans will die from COVID-19

An interesting interview. He makes the point that this is hard to predict, and that the reality will likely fall between the worst and the best case scenarios. But this is his prediction.

I just want to add that what really happens is still dependent on the decisions that are made by individuals, and by government leaders. You Americans can still decide how many people are going to die. The virus is the virus, but people can make choices.

I am reminded of Scrooge speaking to the last spirit to visit him that night.

“Men's courses will foreshadow certain ends, to which, if persevered in, they must lead," said Scrooge. "But if the courses be departed from, the ends will change. Say it is thus with what you show me."

What course will the U.S. follow?

 

[Heyo]

Dr. Fauci predicts 100K to 200K Americans will die from COVID-19

An interesting interview. He makes the point that this is hard to predict, and that the reality will likely fall between the worst and the best case scenarios. But this is his prediction.

And here you can see how those predictions are made:

 

[shunyadragon]

Dr. Fauci predicts 100K to 200K Americans will die from COVID-19

An interesting interview. He makes the point that this is hard to predict, and that the reality will likely fall between the worst and the best case scenarios. But this is his prediction.

I just want to add that what really happens is still dependent on the decisions that are made by individuals, and by government leaders. You Americans can still decide how many people are going to die. The virus is the virus, but people can make choices.

I am reminded of Scrooge speaking to the last spirit to visit him that night.

“Men's courses will foreshadow certain ends, to which, if persevered in, they must lead," said Scrooge. "But if the courses be departed from, the ends will change. Say it is thus with what you show me."

What course will the U.S. follow?

The pattern and actually death and severity rate of the coronavirus does not fit a range of outcomes claimed by Dr. Fauci.

 

[mikkel_the_dane]

The pattern and actually death and severity rate of the coronavirus does not fit a range of outcomes claimed by Dr. Fauci.

Please explain more.

Regards
Mikkel

 

[shunyadragon]

Please explain more.

Regards
Mikkel

I covered this the other thread with references. The coronavirus pattern in Wuhan has followed an normal virus bell curve pattern with a decreasing death rate and severity over time fitting a pattern of three to four months, which is the consistent pattern of other related viruses including pandemic viruses and indications are that the current trend of reinfections in China are far less severe. The coronavirus is following a similar bell curve pattern in the rest of the world with a decrease in severity and death rate.The decreasing death rate and severity is the key to the limits of the bell cure extent of the history of this coronavirus outbreak.

I still predict that this infection of the coronavirus in other countries with larger populations and began later will follow a similar pattern, peak in April or early May and taper off. This source I cited before covers this bell curve concept, and describes the bell curve concepts I described above. This site follows the coronavirus patterns in detail: Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) – Statistics and Research.

There is a long history of the relationship between these viruses and humans. Relationship and history of coronavirus types: The corona virus follows the same pattern as its relatives. It could have been a worse virus like the 1917-1920 pandemic, but it is not following that pattern.

Coronaviruses and Acute Respiratory Syndromes (COVID-19, MERS, and SARS) - Infectious Diseases - Merck Manuals Professional Edition

"Numerous coronaviruses, first discovered in domestic poultry in the 1930s, cause respiratory, gastrointestinal, liver, and neurologic diseases in animals. Only 7 coronaviruses are known to cause disease in humans.

common cold. Coronaviruses 229E and OC43 cause the common cold; the serotypes NL63 and HUK1 have also been associated with the common cold. Rarely, severe lower respiratory tract infections, including pneumonia, can occur, primarily in infants, older people, and the immunocompromised.

SARS-CoV2 is a novel coronavirus identified as the cause of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) that began in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and spread worldwide.

• MERS-CoV was identified in 2012 as the cause of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS).

• SARS-CoV was identified in 2002 as the cause of an outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS).

These coronaviruses that cause severe respiratory infections are zoonotic pathogens, which begin in infected animals and are transmitted from animals to people."

 

[Skwim]

Dr. Fauci predicts 100K to 200K Americans will die from COVID-19

An interesting interview. He makes the point that this is hard to predict, and that the reality will likely fall between the worst and the best case scenarios. But this is his prediction.

I just want to add that what really happens is still dependent on the decisions that are made by individuals, and by government leaders. You Americans can still decide how many people are going to die. The virus is the virus, but people can make choices.

I am reminded of Scrooge speaking to the last spirit to visit him that night.

“Men's courses will foreshadow certain ends, to which, if persevered in, they must lead," said Scrooge. "But if the courses be departed from, the ends will change. Say it is thus with what you show me."

What course will the U.S. follow?

But my President promised me that

"Because of all we've done the risk to the American people remains very low" (at the 0:20 mark)​

and

"We have it so well under control." (0:35 mark)
​

Now he wouldn't lie or make up crap just to look like the greatest American President of all time would he?

.

.

 

[George-ananda]

OK, 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the US

Let's get some perspective on those numbers:

Number of deaths for leading causes of death: (2017 data)

• Heart disease: 647,457
• Cancer: 599,108
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
• Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
• Diabetes: 83,564
• Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
• Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
• Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Yes, I am trying to put some calm in these coronavirus numbers. We are going to need some perspective to help us decide how long and severe to make societal restrictions.

 

[Kangaroo Feathers]

But my President promised me that

"Because of all we've done the risk to the American people remains very low" (at the 0:20 mark)​

and

"We have it so well under control." (0:35 mark)
​

Now he wouldn't lie or make up crap just to look like a great President would he?

.

.

If 200,000 Americans die, we can be sure that trump's response will be swift and decisive, he'll blame Obama AND Hillary!

 

[Kangaroo Feathers]

OK, 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the US

Let's get some perspective on those numbers:

Number of deaths for leading causes of death: (2017 data)

• Heart disease: 647,457
• Cancer: 599,108
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
• Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
• Diabetes: 83,564
• Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
• Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
• Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Yes, I am trying to put some calm in these coronavirus numbers. We are going to need some perspective to help us decide how long and severe to make societal restrictions.

Oh please. You and yours dragged the world into a multi $Trillion (with a t), 20 year war over 5000 deaths, don't get all sanctimonious and try to play the "well it's only 200k deaths" card. The issue, as I'm sure you well understand, is that these will be 200,000 completely avoidable deaths, that will occur because of the blatant mishandling of the national response to the crisis.

You can get plenty worked up about a few thousand deaths when you want.

 

[Skwim]

If 200,000 Americans die, we can be sure that trump's response will be swift and decisive, he'll blame Obama AND Hillary!

And why not? The buck has to stop somewhere.

.

 

[sun rise]

A discussion between two people who are citing facts and people in the know. The world is ending for sure.

One note: I don't believe China is being honest about their numbers, not in the least. I think what Italy, Germany, Spain, Japan and other countries are seeing is a 10,000 times better metric.

Also at this point the death toll is expected to be about 1.4%. Of course this is approximate and tentative. The calculation is simple. If the death toll is 1% and 10 million get the disease, small fraction of the US population, 100,000 will die from it.

This leads me to appreciate and cite this:

I just want to add that what really happens is still dependent on the decisions that are made by individuals, and by government leaders. You Americans can still decide how many people are going to die. The virus is the virus, but people can make choices.

 

[shunyadragon]

A discussion between two people who are citing facts and people in the know. The world is ending for sure.

One note: I don't believe China is being honest about their numbers, not in the least. I think what Italy, Germany, Spain, Japan and other countries are seeing is a 10,000 times better metric.

Also at this point the death toll is expected to be about 1.4%. Of course this is approximate and tentative. The calculation is simple. If the death toll is 1% and 10 million get the disease, small fraction of the US population, 100,000 will die from it.

This leads me to appreciate and cite this:

Many if not by far most infections are mild to no symptoms as in China 81%+ of the infections were mild to no symptoms. By current trends as well documented 10 million people in the USA will not get the coronavirus.

The other problem with estimating death rates is the testing rates for the population. In South Korea where test rates were very high and extensive the death rate is only 0.6%. In the USA the death is very inclusive, because the test rate is very low at present.

 

[We Never Know]

OK, 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the US

Let's get some perspective on those numbers:

Number of deaths for leading causes of death: (2017 data)

• Heart disease: 647,457
• Cancer: 599,108
• Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
• Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
• Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
• Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
• Diabetes: 83,564
• Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
• Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
• Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173

Yes, I am trying to put some calm in these coronavirus numbers. We are going to need some perspective to help us decide how long and severe to make societal restrictions.

Here's some perspective..
In the U.S.......
The known flu infections of 55 million and 60,000 dying.
The known swine flu infections of 60 million and 12,500 dying.
This new corona virus known infections of 135,510 and 2,384 dying.

To break those down further..
The flu averaged killing 110 per 100,000
The swine flu averaged killing 20 per 100,000
The corona virus is averaging killing 1,833 per 100,000.

World wide the corona virus is averaging killing 4,725 per 100,000.
(total know infections 710,240/100,000=7.1)
(total known deaths 33,550/7.1=4,275)

 

[Rational Agnostic]

The corona virus is averaging killing 1,833 per 100,000.

And meanwhile, tuberculosis is an airborne highly contagious disease infecting 10,000,000 people per year, killing 15,000 per 100,000 infected and almost no one is even talking about it.

 

[columbus]

OK, 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in the US

Let's get some perspective on those numbers

They come from a Trump employee.

Trump has a history of deceit, for his own purposes, and hiring and firing people depending on their loyalty to him. Honesty and competence aren't top priorities for our President.

Tom

 

[Kangaroo Feathers]

And meanwhile, tuberculosis is an airborne highly contagious disease infecting 10,000,000 people per year, killing 15,000 per 100,000 infected and almost no one is even talking about it.

Again- The issue, as I'm sure you well understand, is that these will be 200,000 completely avoidable deaths, that will occur because of the blatant mishandling of the national response to the crisis.

The fact that there are other large scale health emergencies out there doesn't make this a lesser one. If anything, this should raise the visibility of the other health problems, you shouldn't use the other health problems as a means of diminishing this one.

Don't be like the men's rights clown who only brings up domestic violence against men when it's to diminish talk about domestic violence against women. If you want to talk about TB, good, do it. Lobby for extra funding and a better centralised response against it. But do it consistently and regularly. Don't use it as a tu quoque "well what about" thing to minimise talk about the current very real and very avoidable crisis.

 

[Rational Agnostic]

Don't be like the men's rights clown who only brings up domestic violence against men when it's to diminish talk about domestic violence against women. If you want to talk about TB, good, do it. Lobby for extra funding and a better centralised response against it. But do it consistently and regularly. Don't use it as a tu quoque "well what about" thing to minimise talk about the current very real and very avoidable crisis.

I'm not minimizing COVID and certainly think the Trump admin did a terrible job handling it. I'm trying to put it in perspective to calm people down a bit.

Comparing me to a "men's rights clown" is a false equivalency since domestic violence against men is far less common than domestic violence against women. If anything, the "men's rights clowns" are those claiming COVID is the worst disease we've ever seen, when other diseases like tuberculosis, and historically, polio are far worse in terms of numbers, at least at this point.

 

[Kangaroo Feathers]

I'm not minimizing COVID and certainly think the Trump admin did a terrible job handling it. I'm trying to put it in perspective to calm people down a bit.

Comparing me to a "men's rights clown" is a false equivalency since domestic violence against men is far less common than domestic violence against women. If anything, the "men's rights clowns" are those claiming COVID is the worst disease we've ever seen, when other diseases like tuberculosis, and historically, polio are far worse in terms of numbers, at least at this point.

Don't be obtuse.

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

And meanwhile, tuberculosis is an airborne highly contagious disease infecting 10,000,000 people per year, killing 15,000 per 100,000 infected and almost no one is even talking about it.

Because it kills far fewer in 1st world countries. And then only the poorest people.

 

[We Never Know]

And meanwhile, tuberculosis is an airborne highly contagious disease infecting 10,000,000 people per year, killing 15,000 per 100,000 infected and almost no one is even talking about it.

It seems we've learned to live with and overlook some progressive diseases with no cure that have been around for ages.
However that doesn't mean we should overlook this "new" corona virus. It's not a progressive disease that takes years to cause death.