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Does NYC have herd immunity?

Discussion in 'Health & Healing' started by Hubert Farnsworth, Jun 29, 2020.

  1. Hubert Farnsworth

    Hubert Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    I'm not claiming that herd immunity is the explanation for the near disappearance of COVID in New York City. But it seems to be a possible explanation--particularly since people are no longer following the rules very carefully. Here is a graph of daily COVID hospitalizations in NYC (source: COVID-19: Data Summary - NYC Health). There is no doubt that, at least for now, NYC has nearly eliminated COVID. What else could explain this?

    upload_2020-6-29_11-56-38.png
     
  2. Terry Sampson

    Terry Sampson ζει

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    A substantial decline in testing.
    :D
     
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  3. Hubert Farnsworth

    Hubert Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    No, that's not the explanation. Note that the graph is of daily hospitalizations, not positive tests. Actually, testing, for the most part, has been continuing to increase in NYC, while daily new cases are dramatically decreasing. Here is a graph from the same source that shows just that:

    upload_2020-6-29_12-18-25.png
     
  4. shunyadragon

    shunyadragon shunyadragon
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    All this indicates is the natural curve path of pandemic is passing in New York. This does not translate to 'herd immunity, and hear immunity does not translate to not getting the infection again. In zoonotic viruses like flus there is a degree of herd immunity after every flu season, also vaccinations contribute to herd immunity, but viruses mutate in response to the development of immunity from previous infections, but viruses mutate.

    The degree of herd immunity of the host for the virus depends on how much and how fast viruses mutate. A common way viruses mutate is the variation in its attachment arms, because the main way host immunity adapts is prevent attachment of viruses. It appears that the COVID-19 does not mutate as much and as fast as flu viruses. That is maybe good news for developing vaccines. The COVID-19 coronavirus is closely related to the 2003 SARS with a similar wild animal source. The 2003 SARS was not as contagious as COVID -19. di not mutate significantly an just faded away.. This is actually an eventual possibility for COVID-19

    more to follow. . .
     
  5. Hubert Farnsworth

    Hubert Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    The "natural curve path" is a direct consequence of herd immunity, though. The reason infectious diseases follow a bell curve is because people who get sick do not catch the virus again, until it mutates, as far as I understand it. I'm not saying this herd immunity is permanent, in fact, it is very likely temporary. From what I have read, experts say COVID-19 will not fade away like SARS. It would be great if it did, though. What is your evidence that this is a possibility?
     
  6. The Hammer

    The Hammer Virtue, Piety, Study
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    I would hesitate to call it "herd immunity" when it is a miniscule geographic area (NY compared to rest of US). Herd immunity also takes 70%-90% of the entire US population to either get CoV or get a vaccine for it. What we are seeing here is the natural progression of a disease decreasing infection rates (of which herd immunity is not a natural point that a disease gets to on its own).

    https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/achieving-herd-immunity-with-covid19.html
     
  7. Hubert Farnsworth

    Hubert Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    And do you realize that this "natural progression" of disease decreasing infection rates is only possible if one can't catch a disease twice in the same season? Maybe "herd immunity" is not the term for it and "temporary localized immunity" is a better term.
     
  8. The Hammer

    The Hammer Virtue, Piety, Study
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    You can catch something twice in the same season of your immunity last only a couple months (something we do not know about covid)

    And thats still not herd immunity (temp immunity is better). So no. And unless you're an epidemiologist I really don't think what you have to say means jack squat, in the realm of what's going on. See you're interpreting data you have no actual understanding of how to interpret. It's as bad as me trying to tell my mechanic how to fix my car (or my doctor what disease I have), I don't have the background to make those assumptions.

    Edit: Also afaik decreasing could also be due to the fact that people are wearing their masks in new york and social distancing still, unlike places like Texas and Florida and Arizona where cases are still surging, and economies are reopening.
     
  9. Hubert Farnsworth

    Hubert Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    Well, I'm nearing completion of a Master's Degree in Applied Statistics if that matters to you. So I'd like to think I know at least a couple things about data.

    There have been huge gatherings and parties all over New York. It's been in the news. People are no longer following the rules as carefully as they were before, and yet cases are not surging there. Immunity of the population (though possibly temporary) seems to be the best explanation.
     
  10. sun rise

    sun rise "Let there be peace and love among all"
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    There is some evidence that many more people get the virus but don't have notable symptoms. So the real question is how many people came down with the virus in the first place.

    The real answer is we don't know without serious testing and even then there's evidence that people with mild cases don't develop antibodies. So the question becomes how do we test in those cases. There appears to be a possible answer in testing for T cell immunity but I don't think that is well developed yet.

    So we need better and more extensive testing and also understanding behavior change that might be impacting the infection rate.

    I can agree with "nice to see" and possibly indicative of temporary immunity but needing a lot more research.
     
  11. The Hammer

    The Hammer Virtue, Piety, Study
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    I'll concede to you having a solid understanding of statistics and conventional logic (as mathematics is), that is still only one of the many pieces of the puzzle in regards to epidemiology and disease vector transmission.

    The oldest reference to large maskless gatherings I could find, about New York, was from June 16th. If that's the case we may be seeing a spike in NY in roughly a week's time. That's if it follows similar patterns to what happened in WA, or maybe your herd immunity theory is correct (although I remain sceptical).
     
  12. Hubert Farnsworth

    Hubert Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    We'll see what happens. I think due to the population density, New York City had a far higher percentage of people with the virus than Washington state, which will prevent them from seeing another spike. I believe Washington does not have herd immunity yet.
     
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  13. The Hammer

    The Hammer Virtue, Piety, Study
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    If only viruses listened to beliefs.
     
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  14. shunyadragon

    shunyadragon shunyadragon
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    Yes the bell curve is a natural curve path common to all virus relationship with the host, and it is more complicated. than you describe. First, zoonotic viruses .often move and migrate from host to host commonly in seasonal cycles.

    Actually neither the experts nor I 'know' the course of the COVID-19 infection cure in relation to the host, because this is unknown turf, and the only related recent virus Also I used this knowledge of the natural path of the virus curve to accurately predict the peak, between March 15 and April 15, and second peak in June for the USA. .

    I only gave the fade away as a very viable option, and not that I am arguing for that. The argument is that genetically the 2003 SARS coronavirus is closely related to the COVID-19 coronavirus, and both did not significantly mutate in the course of their relationship with their host, us.

    Another option is the COVID-19 coronavirus migrates to another animal like flu viruses and comes back seasonally. to infect humans like flues.

    more to follow . . .
     
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  15. Hubert Farnsworth

    Hubert Farnsworth Well-Known Member

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    Well, you'll see.:) NYC will likely not see a spike from activities on June 16. It may see a "second wave" in the fall or winter though.
     
  16. shunyadragon

    shunyadragon shunyadragon
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    New York City is a classic example of a dense homogenous population the follows a consistent curve of infection and fatality rate. Other relatively homogenous populations follow a uniform path like New Zealand, Taiwan and South Korea had similar bell curves. More complex larger variable regions and countries still follow a bell curve pattern with a second bell curve as the USA has in June.

    This has nothing to do with how many lives were saved or as some call flattening the curve. Actually without vaccines and effective treatments, and in many countries inconsistent measures to reduce the pandemic it unknown how much the cases and fatalities were prevented. All that can be said is that the countries that were more proactive, consistent and aggressive about controlling the COVID-19 were more relatively successful in controlling the pandemic. Countries like Brazil, Russia, USA and Iran out of control and the virus was in control.
     
    #16 shunyadragon, Jun 29, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2020
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  17. shunyadragon

    shunyadragon shunyadragon
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    A degree of herd immunity does result from the natural course of every pandemic, epidemic, or just a normal year of flu. It is the inevitable course of the history of the pandemic. I believe the infection will gradually taper off as it has happened in all past pandemics, epidemics and normal courses of virus infections.

    The question remains as to what happens next. Since this COVID-19 is new wiht unknowns it could just fade away like it's cousin the 2003 SARS, or return again like the flu.

    There is also an apparent relationship of the decreasing number of fatalities even though there is a second bell curve in June, which I predicted simply based on the fact that all large countries have shown this second hump infections in their natural relationship with the infection.



    The bell curve and subsequent decrease is the natural course of the relationship between the virus and the host population it is the same in all the different countries and regions large enough population to show the natural history of the infection curve. This has been the observed relationship of all the pandemics adn epidemics in the past for zoonotic viruses like the flues, and happens regardless of the measures to reduce the impact of the virus.

    There is a problem with COVID-19 that is that is those that recover from COVID-19 have more health complications, and some debilitating and life threatening not as apparent with flu infections.
     
    #17 shunyadragon, Jun 30, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2020
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  18. columbus

    columbus member

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    I don't know what "homogeneous" means in this context.
    NYC is huge, I expect the daily influx of essentials is well into tens of thousands of individuals. And NYC has a homeless population larger than many towns. I wouldn't expect such a place to show the normal curves for infection rates.

    In other words, I wouldn't extrapolate much from NYC data concerning C19.
    Tom
     
  19. shunyadragon

    shunyadragon shunyadragon
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    Homogeneous in this case refers to the uniform density of the population of New York City where as you move away of dense uniform cities the course of the infection is less uniform.

    Density of population remains the main factor of the population of New York and the course of the pandemic in the city. The bell curve in New York is very similar to other large cities and countries like in Europe, and South Korea and New Zealand..Large countries that have diverse densities of population show the second peak within the pandemic that is now experienced in the United States.
     
    #19 shunyadragon, Jun 30, 2020
    Last edited: Jun 30, 2020
  20. Nowhere Man

    Nowhere Man Bompu Zen Man with a little bit of Bushido.

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    if you're interested I would first see how that coincides with people who have confirmed antibodies to determine how much herd immunity played a role.

    Personally I think a fair amount had to do with herd immunity given the severity of cases in New York. Would also be interested to see if it's similar over in Italy that was also hard hit and of course Sweden who practiced herd immunity but seems to have some difficulty in getting the antibody count they needed to be relatively safe from this particular strain.
     
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