Probably not far off, in many countries, though it will be more complex, no doubt, with cultural issues superimposed as well.
For instance, if one belongs to a group that feels it has been systematically excluded and maltreated by majority society, as blacks were in the US southern states until as recently the 1960s, one might feel that little or no allegiance is owed to majority society, including even its laws, to some extent. One might feel like an outlaw, in other words. Of course this is an extreme view that won't apply to most people, but all it takes is a few with that attitude and the stats will go up for crime in that ethnic group.
This doesn't seek to excuse criminal activity, but one does have to get beyond moral judgements and look at the factors that mould human behaviour, if one wants to make a difference.
The same goes for the factors that mould police attitudes and behaviour as well. If they spend a lot of time arresting blacks, they may come to view blacks in general with suspicion. So you get an embedded prejudiced police culture, which then creates a vicious circle because the blacks won't trust the police to be fair to them - and so more of them will be encouraged to behave like outlaws.