Defeating covid via the "kitchen sink", in a few weeks

[shunyadragon]

I said that when it all started. It could have been over in 4 weeks - with a 99% lockdown. I also knew it wouldn't happen. But the maths is unambiguous.

This is extremely unreasonable and virtually imposssible considering the nature of zoonotic viruses in general and in specific viruses like coronaviruses and other flu and cold viruses. Viruses spread to generally in populations through assymptomatic carriers, and those not shoing symptoms. One individual can infect thousands, and those thousands infect thousands.

The hope that vaccines would defeat the COVID-19 is terribly naive. Vaccines can reduce the cases and fatalities, but not defeat the virus.

 

[Heyo]

This is extremely unreasonable and virtually imposssible considering the nature of zoonotic viruses in general and in specific viruses like coronaviruses and other flu and cold viruses. Viruses spread to generally in populations through assymptomatic carriers, and those not shoing symptoms. One individual can infect thousands, and those thousands infect thousands.

The hope that vaccines would defeat the COVID-19 is terribly naive. Vaccines can reduce the cases and fatalities, but not defeat the virus.

I said nothing about vaccines, I said just a near 100% lockdown for about 4 weeks - which is practically impossible - would have ended the pandemic. (At least for the current strain.)
You are right in so far as the virus will survive in an animal host. But assuming (and I have no reason not to) that we have, except for the first cases, exclusively human-to-human infections, it would have stopped the pandemic in any region that implemented the lockdown.

 

[shunyadragon]

I said nothing about vaccines, I said just a near 100% lockdown for about 4 weeks - which is practically impossible - would have ended the pandemic. (At least for the current strain.)
You are right in so far as the virus will survive in an animal host. But assuming (and I have no reason not to) that we have, except for the first cases, exclusively human-to-human infections, it would have stopped the pandemic in any region that implemented the lockdown.

An important factor you are not taking into consideration, and that the virus had virtually around the world and in larger cities, before anything definitive was known.countries like South Korea acted proactively and aggressively and they could not come near achieving what you claim.

 

[Heyo]

An important factor you are not taking into consideration, and that the virus had virtually around the world and in larger cities, before anything definitive was known.countries like South Korea acted proactively and aggressively and they could not come near achieving what you claim.

They were pretty successful compared to others and they didn't have a 99% lockdown.

Just do the simple simulation in your head. The virus has a lifetime of about 4 weeks. In that time it has to find an other host. (The original one will be either dead or immune.) The later that happens, the better for it.
Now partition your territory in smaller units, the smaller, the better. Seal those units off as best as you can. Within those units the virus will behave statistically. I.e. if there is no virus the unit will remain virus free. If there is one, it will spread to herd immunity in a short time.
You can reopen those units that are virus free after 4 weeks. When there were cases, you keep that unit closed until they have no new cases for 2 weeks.
Rinse and repeat if somehow one unit becomes infected.

 

[shunyadragon]

They were pretty successful compared to others and they didn't have a 99% lockdown.

Just do the simple simulation in your head. The virus has a lifetime of about 4 weeks. In that time it has to find an other host. (The original one will be either dead or immune.) The later that happens, the better for it.
Now partition your territory in smaller units, the smaller, the better. Seal those units off as best as you can. Within those units the virus will behave statistically. I.e. if there is no virus the unit will remain virus free. If there is one, it will spread to herd immunity in a short time.
You can reopen those units that are virus free after 4 weeks. When there were cases, you keep that unit closed until they have no new cases for 2 weeks.
Rinse and repeat if somehow one unit becomes infected.

I just simply do not buy this fantasy tale.

 

[Heyo]

I just simply do not buy this fantasy tale.

I never claimed it to be more than a theoretical model. In fact, I said "I also knew it wouldn't happen."
But you could run simulations based on that model with realistic numbers of size of units and holes in the fences and optimize your strategy.
But any way you'd slice it, divide and conquer would work better than models without the technique.