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Coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 different strains new study finds

Cooky

Veteran Member
...I wonder if this means we'll have to come up with 30 different vaccines.

The study was carried out by Professor Li Lanjuan and colleagues from Zhejiang University in Hangzhou, China and published in a non-peer reviewed paper released on website medRxiv.org on Sunday

"A new study in China has found that the novel coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 different variations.

The results showed that medical officials have vastly underestimated the overall ability of the virus to mutate, in findings that different strains have affected different parts of the world, leading to potential difficulties in finding an overall cure."

Coronavirus has mutated into at least 30 different strains study finds


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Cooky

Veteran Member
according to the article, the U.S. West coast strain resembles the original Chinese strain, while the East coast strain resembles the mutated European one.

...But what's most alarming to me, if this non-peer reviewed study is correct, is that COVID-19 has mutated over 30 times in only 5 months... So in 12 more months, it could have mutated to maybe 80 or so different strains, depending on the accuracy of the study. And then what?
 
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exchemist

Veteran Member
according to the article, the U.S. West coast strain resembles the original Chinese strain, while the East coast strain resembles the mutated European one.

...But what's most alarming to me, if this non-peer reviewed study is correct, is that COVID-19 has mutated over 30 times in only 5 months... So in 12 more months, it could have mutated to maybe 80 or so different strains, depending on the accuracy of the study. And then what?

Thanks for posting this informative article.

It is perfectly normal for viruses to undergo mutations. The key issue is whether any of these mutations affect the bits that the human immune system needs to recognise as foreign and attack. These are notably the "spike proteins" that are exposed on the surface of the virus and which it uses to latch onto cells in the airways of human beings. Most mutations will not involve changes to these spike proteins. I read, just a few days ago an article pointing out that experience with similar viruses is that most mutations to the spike proteins will cause the virus to fail to latch on and thus make the virus fail to reproduce. I notice Prof Li only says that some mutations could lead to changes in the spike protein.

So I would not run away with the headline number of mutations and conclude from that alone that all is lost. It may however be that there will be different vaccines needed for different strains, which is feasible. It is good that the Chinese scientists are (a) on the case and ( b ) not being prevented from sharing their findings with the world.
 

Rational Agnostic

Well-Known Member
Thanks for posting this informative article.

It is perfectly normal for viruses to undergo mutations. The key issue is whether any of these mutations affect the bits that the human immune system needs to recognise as foreign and attack. These are notably the "spike proteins" that are exposed on the surface of the virus and which it uses to latch onto cells in the airways of human beings. Most mutations will not involve changes to these spike proteins. I read, just a few days ago an article pointing out that experience with similar viruses is that most mutations to the spike proteins will cause the virus to fail to latch on and thus make the virus fail to reproduce. I notice Prof Li only says that some mutations could lead to changes in the spike protein.

So I would not run away with the headline number of mutations and conclude from that alone that all is lost. It may however be that there will be different vaccines needed for different strains, which is feasible. It is good that the Chinese scientists are (a) on the case and ( b ) not being prevented from sharing their findings with the world.

I agree with you that some types of mutations will not affect the ability to make an effective vaccine. However, we already know that the flu vaccine is only 19-50% effective in most years (the CDC admits to this). I'm not a medical expert, but I can't say I'm optimistic about a COVID vaccine being much better.
 

Thief

Rogue Theologian
if it truly flexes that much....vaccines will prove futile
it's too quick that we keep pace with our medicines

so then the hope falls to the immune system that we humans have.....
and the immune system can keep pace
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
I agree with you that some types of mutations will not affect the ability to make an effective vaccine. However, we already know that the flu vaccine is only 19-50% effective in most years (the CDC admits to this). I'm not a medical expert, but I can't say I'm optimistic about a COVID vaccine being much better.
'flu' is not due to the variants of a single virus, however.
 

Thief

Rogue Theologian
last I heard....there are 300 KNOWN items that cause the common cold
and that I heard a long time ago

how many unknowns are there?

unknown
 

Rational Agnostic

Well-Known Member

I do not see any evidence in that link that indicates I am wrong. It states that the first influenza pandemic may have occurred over 8000 years ago. Of course, there was not enough medical knowledge at that time to detect if this pandemic was caused by a single virus or more than one. So I don't know how you can confidently assert that I'm wrong.
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
I do not see any evidence in that link that indicates I am wrong. It states that the first influenza pandemic may have occurred over 8000 years ago. Of course, there was not enough medical knowledge at that time to detect if this pandemic was caused by a single virus or more than one. So I don't know how you can confidently assert that I'm wrong.
Because I've read the article.

I quote: "Wild aquatic birds are the natural hosts for a large variety of influenza A.[53]Occasionally, viruses are transmitted to other species and may then cause devastating outbreaks in domestic poultry or give rise to human influenza pandemics"
 

MNoBody

Well-Known Member
if it truly flexes that much....vaccines will prove futile
it's too quick that we keep pace with our medicines

so then the hope falls to the immune system that we humans have.....
and the immune system can keep pace
they ought to design shots that supercharge the immune system [without metabolic burden]
rather than shots that suppress and over-ride the immune system....
logical?
would seem the most benevolent thing to do.
 

Dan From Smithville

What's up Doc?
Staff member
Premium Member
I do not see any evidence in that link that indicates I am wrong. It states that the first influenza pandemic may have occurred over 8000 years ago. Of course, there was not enough medical knowledge at that time to detect if this pandemic was caused by a single virus or more than one. So I don't know how you can confidently assert that I'm wrong.
Am I correct that your view is that the flu is caused by different mutated strains of a single type of virus? If so, then you are incorrect. The flu is caused by different types of viruses just as the 'common cold' is caused by a number of different viruses, including a coronavirus.
 

Cooky

Veteran Member
Thanks for posting this informative article.

It is perfectly normal for viruses to undergo mutations. The key issue is whether any of these mutations affect the bits that the human immune system needs to recognise as foreign and attack. These are notably the "spike proteins" that are exposed on the surface of the virus and which it uses to latch onto cells in the airways of human beings. Most mutations will not involve changes to these spike proteins. I read, just a few days ago an article pointing out that experience with similar viruses is that most mutations to the spike proteins will cause the virus to fail to latch on and thus make the virus fail to reproduce. I notice Prof Li only says that some mutations could lead to changes in the spike protein.

So I would not run away with the headline number of mutations and conclude from that alone that all is lost. It may however be that there will be different vaccines needed for different strains, which is feasible. It is good that the Chinese scientists are (a) on the case and ( b ) not being prevented from sharing their findings with the world.

Do you think there's any possibility that the reason tests have been so flawed and inaccurate, is because over 30 strains exist, and testing was not based on that information?

Maybe this discovery could lead to more accurate testing.
 

Dan From Smithville

What's up Doc?
Staff member
Premium Member
Do you think there's any possibility that the reason tests have been so flawed and inaccurate, is because over 30 strains exist, and testing was not based on that information?

Maybe this discovery could lead to more accurate testing.
It is a reverse transciption pcr test for two distinct regions of the viral genome in samples. Finding the two of them confirms covid-19 infection.

Issues confounding the results could arise from cross-reaction with other viruses, cross contamination of samples, poor technique, etc. I suppose that if a mutation were radical, it might lead to a failure to detect, but I doubt that. Changes would have to occur in the regions being targeted for analysis and they would have to be so significant they confound the test.

Perhaps if people could have seen this coming and we had not inherited a faulty test, things would be different.
 

Cooky

Veteran Member
It is a reverse transciption pcr test for two distinct regions of the viral genome in samples. Finding the two of them confirms covid-19 infection.

Issues confounding the results could arise from cross-reaction with other viruses, cross contamination of samples, poor technique, etc. I suppose that if a mutation were radical, it might lead to a failure to detect, but I doubt that. Changes would have to occur in the regions being targeted for analysis and they would have to be so significant they confound the test.

Perhaps if people could have seen this coming and we had not inherited a faulty test, things would be different.

Are those two distinct regions unchanged throughout all 30 different strains? Your post seems to suggest so, but how do you know?
 

Dan From Smithville

What's up Doc?
Staff member
Premium Member
Are those two distinct regions unchanged throughout all 30 different strains? Your post seems to suggest so, but how do you know?
I do not know if they are unchanged. I do not know what expression those regions are associated with. I also do not know to what extent they would have to be altered in order for them not to be detectable. All I know is that they are distinct so that detection of both of them is powerful enough to consider it a positive.

If differences exist in one or both of those regions, they would have to be significant enough to confound the test and result in a false negative.

Additionally, I do not know what has changed in different strains to consider them different strains.
 

Dan From Smithville

What's up Doc?
Staff member
Premium Member
Are those two distinct regions unchanged throughout all 30 different strains? Your post seems to suggest so, but how do you know?
I just finished reading a report from Mar 27 about 8 strains that were very similar to each other, so it is unlikely that testing would miss them. Though current testing might not easily differentiate them. You would still get a hit for Sars-Cov-2.
 

Dan From Smithville

What's up Doc?
Staff member
Premium Member
Are those two distinct regions unchanged throughout all 30 different strains? Your post seems to suggest so, but how do you know?
With viral mutations, changes that may result in missed detection are a concern. But to me, not as big a concern as mutations that allow it to move between hosts or new hosts or changes that increase virulence and movement. Some of these different strains appear to be more susceptible to social responses than others. They might be eliminated through the measures we are taking, while others appear to be more difficult to deal with using simple social distancing and self-quarantine.
 
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