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Climate Chaos: Extreme heat, wildfires, record-setting storms

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Climate chaos: Extreme heat, wildfires and record-setting storms suggest a frightening future is already here

From the historic heat wave and wildfires in the West, to the massive derecho that tore through the middle of the nation, to the record-breaking pace of this year's hurricane season, the unprecedented and concurrent extreme conditions resemble the chaotic climate future scientists have been warning us about for decades — only it's happening right now.

While climate catastrophes are typically spaced out in time and geographic location, right now the U.S. is dealing with multiple disasters. The Midwest is cleaning up from a devastating derecho that caused nearly $4 billion in damage to homes and crops, as nearly a quarter-million people in the West are under evacuation orders or warnings from fires that have burned over 1 million acres, and at the same time residents along the Gulf Coast are bracing for back-to-back landfalls of a tropical storm and hurricane.

"This current stretch of natural catastrophe events in the United States are essentially a snapshot of what scientists and emergency managers have long feared," says meteorologist Steven Bowen, the head of Catastrophe Insight at AON, an international risk mitigation firm.

2020 has been quite a rollercoaster year.

To be sure, these events are not all related to each other, but the one thing they do have in common is that climate change makes each one more likely. The simple explanation is that there's more energy in the system and that energy is expended in the form of more extreme heat, fire, wind and rain.

Daniel Swain is a well-known climate scientist who specializes in studying the link between climate change and weather in the West at the University of California, Los Angeles. In a blog post he described how even someone like him, well-versed in climate disaster, is shocked by the current situation: "I'm essentially at a loss for words to describe the scope of the lightning-sparked fire outbreak that has rapidly evolved in northern California – even in the context of the extraordinary fires of recent years. It's truly astonishing."

While it's not rare for tropical moisture to invade California, it is infrequent, and extremely unfortunate that it happened during one of the worst western U.S. heat waves in recent history, not to mention an ongoing short- and long-term drought. Researchers believe that in the year 2000 the western U.S. entered a megadrought, one of the worst in the past 1,200 years.

This is why climate scientists often say that climate change "loads the dice" for extreme weather. The cause of the fires is not climate change, but many of the factors which set the stage and made conditions ripe for fire ignition and spread are a direct result of a warming climate.

On August 16, Death Valley reached 130 degrees Fahrenheit, the highest temperature ever reliably measured on Earth. It was just a small part of a monster heat wave which broke hundreds of heat records over a two-week span. The link between heat waves and climate change is straightforward, and multiple studies have shown that a warmer climate is making heat waves more likely and more intense.

It seems the main problem is there is more heat available. There is also a "vapor pressure deficit," something I didn't know of before.

"Basically there is more heat available: Earth's energy balance is out of whack," says Trenberth. That extra heat energy, trapped in the atmosphere by excess greenhouse gases from the burning of fossil fuels, must be used up in some way.

Trenberth explains, if the land was wet the heat would be used first to evaporate water, keeping air temperatures moderate. But when the air and ground are bone dry, as is typical of the dry season in California — especially in summers like this — the excess heat energy is expended by drying out the brush and warming and drying the air.

This long-term drying out of the air has created a "vapor pressure deficit" — or in simpler terms, a moisture deficit. According to a 2019 study, this is a leading reason for the intensified summer fire seasons in California, presently at record levels.

"Vapor pressure deficit" (gap between how much moisture *could* be in the air vs. how much is *actually* there) is key determinant of wildfire risk, and is increasing in a warming climate. This week, VPD in California reached highest Aug. levels in at least 40 yrs.

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And it's not just in California. The Midwest and Gulf Coast states are affected as well.

Midwest derecho
A derecho is a particularly fierce and long-lasting line of thunderstorms, often causing winds over 75 mph. While these weather events are common during summer, the event that took place August 10 in Iowa and Illinois seemed otherworldly.

The squall line plowed a path 800 miles long and 40 miles wide through communities and corn fields, damaging 43% of Iowa's corn and soybean crop and causing nearly $4 billion in damage. Winds are estimated to have reached up to 140 mph, with hurricane-force winds lasting 40 to 50 minutes.

Hurricane season
Having two tropical systems like Marco and Laura in late August, the beginning of the peak of hurricane season, is not abnormal, even if the storms are very close to one another. But what is abnormal is the record-setting pace of the current hurricane season. So far the Atlantic season has tallied 14 named storms, 10 days ahead of record pace. That's two more than the average number for an entire season, which runs through the end of November. Seasonal forecasters are predicting up to 25 named systems this year, which would place second behind 2005.

Things are looking pretty grim.
 

Bear Wild

Well-Known Member
Climate chaos: Extreme heat, wildfires and record-setting storms suggest a frightening future is already here



2020 has been quite a rollercoaster year.





It seems the main problem is there is more heat available. There is also a "vapor pressure deficit," something I didn't know of before.





Ef6ELwvU4AU4AUm



And it's not just in California. The Midwest and Gulf Coast states are affected as well.





Things are looking pretty grim.

We cannot hide behind our protective walls, we need to recognize what is coming if we do not change. The rate of change is faster than predicted and there is a point when there will be unable to change enough before so many will suffer.
 

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
We cannot hide behind our protective walls, we need to recognize what is coming if we do not change. The rate of change is faster than predicted and there is a point when there will be unable to change enough before so many will suffer.
.
One can only hope we're not already past the point of no return.
 

Tambourine

Well-Known Member
The issues going on with the climate are distressing indeed. I wish more people would jump on board the green movement/energy sustainability train.
There is apparently still too much money involved in shrugging one's shoulders and muttering that sadly, nothing could have been done so we might as well stop trying altogether.

.
One can only hope we're not already past the point of no return.
As far as I know, there is no real "point of no return", it just gets progressively harder and costlier to prevent the worst effects of climate change the longer we avoid doing anything at all.
 

The Hammer

[REDACTED]
Premium Member
There is apparently still too much money involved in shrugging one's shoulders and muttering that sadly, nothing could have been done so we might as well stop trying altogether.


As far as I know, there is no real "point of no return", it just gets progressively harder and costlier to prevent the worst effects of climate change the longer we avoid doing anything at all.

I think the Point of no Return, is where the climate, even if we reversed continues to warm to a point where it makes life nearly impossible for humans. And that is fast approaching.
 

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
The issues going on with the climate are distressing indeed. I wish more people would jump on board the green movement/energy sustainability train.
There needs to be good science involved. Something interesting and encouraging that would motivate people.
 

Valjean

Veteran Member
Premium Member
Hasanyone else noticed that, as defined, "vapor pressure deficit" seems to be a sciency way of saying relative humidity?
 

Tambourine

Well-Known Member
There needs to be good science involved. Something interesting and encouraging that would motivate people.
How about "if we are changing things for the better right now, then we definitely won't witness the destruction of our own civilization in our lifetimes". Isn't that motivating enough?
 

Valjean

Veteran Member
Premium Member
As far as I know, there is no real "point of no return", it just gets progressively harder and costlier to prevent the worst effects of climate change the longer we avoid doing anything at all.
But there is.
You can heat a block of wood just so long. At some point it catches fire, at which point the reaction will continue all by itself whether the outside heat source continues or not.

Outgassing of CO2 and Ch4 from a newly exposed tundra is beyond human control, and self-sustaining, like fire.
Explosive release of CH4 from ocean floor clathrates, from ocean heating, could inject a sudden surge of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere greater than anything humans ever did.
Tipping points are real.
 

Tambourine

Well-Known Member
Sounds like a great motivation to just give up, since we already don't want to do anything to stop global warming.
 

Valjean

Veteran Member
Premium Member
Sounds like a great motivation to just give up, since we already don't want to do anything to stop global warming.
Well, most of us do, except for some industrialists who benefit from it and some poorly informed people who deny it or think it would be a good thing.
Unfortunately, humans aren't wired for long-term planning, and aren't inclined make any sacrifices that would diminish our standards of living.
 

shunyadragon

shunyadragon
Premium Member
Trump and Climate Change pulls a Schultz as usual, "We know nothing," combined with fuzzy vague 'arguing from ignorance,' and 'passing the buck.' Trump as with FOX News they ignore the that the Carbon Dioxide content of the atmosphere has been increasing since the Industrial Revolution in proportional to the temperature increase and the increase in droughts around the world between the arid regions and the mesic regions. Much of the Western United States is changing from a mesi region to an arid region with significant rise in temperatures and drop in rainfall.

Source: Trump says "I don't think science knows" about climate




Trump says "I don't think science knows" about climate

President Trump landed in California Monday framed by a smoky sky. He made a rare West Coast swing as wildfires ravage California, Oregon and Washington, and has already approved emergency declarations for the states.


In California, the president questioned climate change, and blamed the fires on poor forest management even though many forests in California are federally managed.

California National Resources Secretary Wade Crowfoot disagreed that the rapidly spreading wildfires could entirely be blamed on forest management. He told Mr. Trump, "We want to work with you to really recognize the changing climate, and what it means to our forests." Crowfoot warned, "If we ignore that science, and sort of put our head in the sand, and think it's all about vegetation management, we're not going to succeed together protecting Californians."

The president claimed the climate would "start getting cooler."

"I wish science agreed with you," Crowfoot replied.

"I don't think science knows," the president responded.

Mr. Trump said exploding trees, caused by dryness and poor management, are the cause of the fires.

"When trees fall down after a short period of time, about 18 months, they become very dry," the president said. "They become really like a matchstick ... you know, there's no more water pouring through and they become very, very — they just explode. They can explode."

The fires have killed at least 35 from California to Washington state, and hundreds of thousands have been forced to evacuate. The smoke has destroyed the air quality up and down the West Coast, yielding the eerie orange images of San Francisco last week. Together, the dozens of fires have burned more than 3 million acres.

The president has long denied the impact of man-made influence on climate change. Asked if California had a climate change problem, Mr. Trump responded, "You'll have to answer your governor that question. I don't want to step on his toes."

© Copyright Original Source
 
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columbus

yawn <ignore> yawn
Apparently not.
Unfortunately, humans as a group aren't really that smart.
We're collectively very short sighted. I honestly don't think we're going to do much, despite the evidence, to change. I fully expect the human race to react to social stress, brought about by climate change, the way we have generally done throughout history.
Go to war.

I fully expect Armageddon within the 21st century. Nothing to do with God or the supernatural, just humans being human. We'll push the biosphere to the brink of disaster, then go to war with the spectacularly destructive weapons we've invented over the last century or so.
Tom
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
I fully expect Armageddon within the 21st century. Nothing to do with God or the supernatural, just humans being human. We'll push the biosphere to the brink of disaster, then go to war with the spectacularly destructive weapons we've invented over the last century or so.
Got any good news?

Unfortunately, I tend to agree that your scenario is likely.

BTW, Steven Hawing also felt the same way.
 
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