Brexit identities stronger than party identities, study finds

[Vouthon]

Voters more divided by Brexit tribe than party loyalty, study finds

A report by the UK in a Changing Europe think tank found just 6% refused to align themselves with Remain or Leave in mid-2018, while 20% refused to identify with a party.

The study, which was conducted by some of Britain’s most eminent political academics, shows the number of both Remainers and Leavers expressing a Brexit identity shot up following the 2016 referendum result.

It found the number of Leave voters who say “we” when talking about their side jumped from 44% to 66% after the referendum, while for Remain voters it rocketed from 33% to 69%.

The equivalent figure for those who attach themselves to parties however is just 25%.

The number of people who agreed with the statement “When people criticize the Remain/Leave side, it feels like a personal insult” had gone up after the referendum from around 20% up to 42%.

That compares with only around 20% of Conservative and 28% of Labour identifiers who tended to respond that way.

Professor Anand Menon, director of the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, said the study “highlights the fundamental divisions Brexit has created, and in some cases exacerbated, in British society”.

He added: “New Brexit identities have emerged, which seem to be stronger than party identities.

“Divisions are also clear on national lines, as well as between MPs and their respective party members.”​

 

[Vouthon]

See:

Sky Views: Brexit isn't just a crisis, it's far more than that

The world looks on askance at Westminster: Brexit has brought about the most serious domestic crisis of modern times.

Theresa May’s government is in near-meltdown, parliament is in full-blown mutiny and the political lines that once defined our party system have been well and truly ripped up.

In the coming week, parliamentarians will try to find a Brexit option that could win out after Mrs May’s Brexit deal was emphatically voted down .

But this is not just a Brexit crisis, it’s far more than that.

This is an existential crisis about the very tribes to which our politicians - and we - belong.

Party politics have been set aside with far more fluid arrangements springing up across the green benches as senior politicians from opposing camps find common ground over Brexit.

They gossip over coffees and plot over WhatsApp groups, finding more in common with those who they fight elections against than those who sit at their sides.

I don’t know whether the vote to leave the EU was a result of changing political identities or a catalyst for them.

But it seems to me that, if the post-war lines that have defined the modern democratic era ran red to blue, the new lines drawn in 2016 are firmly around Leave versus Remain.

New polling out this week by the country’s leading pollster Sir John Curtice found a country that is increasingly polarised by Brexit identities rather than party political ones.

Only one in 16 Britons - 6% of respondents - did not have a Brexit identity, while more than one in five polled said they didn’t have a party identity.

Meanwhile, another poll by YouGov for The Times last weekend found that more than a third of Remainers would be upset if a close relative married a strong Leave supporter.

Almost two-thirds of respondents said all or most of their friends shared their Brexit stance.

Brexit has left an indelible imprint on our identities and it has left an imprint on our politics too.

Brexit isn’t just an “event” that will happen and everyone moves on.

It is a process.

Even if a Brexit deal passes in the coming months, politicians will be arguing for months, years, to come over what the future trading relationship should look like.

Of course it might be too early to claim the traditional left-right divisions in British politics are no longer relevant, but those who see new contours emerging are waiting in the wings to exploit these new political divisions if the opportunity emerges.

Populist-in-chief Nigel Farage told Sky News last week that the existing party structure cannot cope with Brexit.

He said: "People increasingly see themselves as Remainers or Leavers rather than Labour or Conservatives.​

 

[Jumi]

Meanwhile, another poll by YouGov for The Times last weekend found that more than a third of Remainers would be upset if a close relative married a strong Leave supporter.

Almost two-thirds of respondents said all or most of their friends shared their Brexit stance.​

It's snippets like these that show how ridiculous most of politics is.

 

[Vouthon]

It's snippets like these that show how ridiculous most of politics is.

I concur, no matter how passionately one might feel wedded to a worldview or ideology - and I am as Europhile and Remain-supporting as they come - there is no excuse for letting a Brexit identity become such an exclusive, tribal affiliation that it dictates one's choice of friends or marriage partner.

That said, Brexit is "more" than traditional politics for a good number of people. It's an identity and value crisis, almost like an 'uncivil' civil war - albeit not with weapons and fisticuffs but of the mind.

I must, myself, admit that while I do have a few Brexit-supporting friends - I overwhelmingly find that I have more in common with other Remain-supporters, as a whole. That's just anecdotal.

 

[Jumi]

I concur, no matter how passionately one might feel wedded to a worldview or ideology - and I am as Europhile and Remain-supporting as they come - there is no excuse for letting a Brexit identity become such an exclusive, tribal affiliation that it dictates one's choice of friends or marriage partner.

I blame today's social media and traditional media throwing more polarization at us for how bad it has gotten.

That said, Brexit is "more" than traditional politics for a good number of people. It's an identity and value crisis, almost like an 'uncivil' civil war - albeit not with weapons and fisticuffs but of the mind.

There's not much of a step then to actual violence. Let's hope that doesn't happen no matter which way it goes.

I must, myself, admit that while I do have a few Brexit-supporting friends - I overwhelmingly find that I have more in common with other Remain-supporters, as a whole. That's just anecdotal.

Well we tend to keep friends who are like us. And when the whole thing is presented in a tribal context, it's hard to be friends with someone under a different battle flag.

 

[Vouthon]

One thing that is abundantly clear, is that the increasingly moribund UK party system has not yet caught up with the mood among both the general public and MPs.

Of the two parties, Labour has a task ahead of it but is still in better shape than the Tories. Its membership is about 86% Remain/pro-EU, while its voter base is about 70% Remain. It nevertheless has a significant minority of Leave voters, particularly in Northern England and MPs representing these seats in parliament who are understandably resistant to the idea of the party backing a second referendum or a more Europhile agenda. This is angering the membership in a huge way, leading to 150,000 people resigning their membership in the party according to reports, because they want it to back a solidly pro-EU platform. If the party loses such people, it has no chance of winning the next general election, especially since its membership is young and living predominantly in university cities where support for the EU is enormous.

With some political courage, you can at least see how Labour can pivot to become “the” pro-EU party - so long as Corbyn, despite his lifelong socialist Eurosceptic views (he’s basically a soft-Marxist who views the EU as a capitalist club and reluctantly voted Remain), comes on board. But that could mean sacrificing a few MPs, and those MPs are understandably aghast at the prospect of being sold under the bus so that Labour can reap the dividend of being the “Remain party”.

For the Tories, though, the situation is just a Shakespearean-style bloodbath. That party, the longest surviving political force in the Western world, is close to breaking point. Thatcher in 1990, Major in 1997, Cameron in 2016. Three conservative prime ministers have fallen over the European issue, and Theresa May is destined to be the fourth. The mammoth study in my OP found that a plurality of Tory voters (46%) back May’s deal and style of Brexit - a sort of “soft” or compromise approach (or “Brexit” on EU terms as some view it), whereas about 20% are Remainers and the rest are hardcore Brexiteers. But amongst Tory members, 76% are in favour of a “no deal” Brexit (Hard Brexit) and tons of them are threatening to quit the party if it goes for the “vassalage” of May’s deal or worse, caves in to the Remainers.

To complicate matters further for the Tories, there are 86 Conservative-held constituencies where the number of Tory voters who backed Remain exceeds the party’s current majority. Recent evidence from the British Election Study suggests Conservative Remainers are more likely to care about Brexit than Labour Leavers, so this could be rather bad for them if they ever did chuck May’s approach and get behind no-deal.

But the litany of woes don’t end there. A CPS survey revealed that 44 % of 18 to 24-year-olds claimed they would never vote Tory and 48% of 25-49 year olds, while 87% of 18 and 19-year-olds are pro-EU. Young Remainers blame the Tory party for Brexit, and are unlikely to forgive it.

I don’t see how the Tory party navigates such a proverbial cluster-bomb. It’s being chewed up from multiple angles.