I too think that in the end, rationality will prevail. Even with mr Boris.
However, I'ld have to disagree that no-deal would be "just as bad" for the EU as for the UK.
It would be bad for the EU for sure. It would be much much worse for the UK.
As it stands already, the UK is torn apart / divided very deeply over the entire thing. Then there's also scotland and ireland. A no-deal would be like pouring oil on an already raging fire. The situation would be very very fragile and very very explosive. The "U" in "UK" would be severely at risk.
While the EU would only have an economic setback primarily. Which would hurt much as well, off course.
I'm afraid Boris is going to have to bow to the EU in the end. He'll try to spin it, Trump style, making it look as if he is the hero. But it will mostly be happening on EU terms.
On the EU side of things, there are only 3 options on the table:
- no-deal
- May's deal
- The deal that the EU originally proposed, which is essentially the same as May's deal but with the backstop only limited to Northern Ireland, which is something May found unnacceptable. Boris seems to be moving towards that deal.
I think we can safely rule out May's deal. It's been rejected 3 times and Boris doesn't want anything to do with it. So it's either option 1 or 3.
I expect it will be 3, and the UK is just going to have to deal with a few years of having a hard border in the Irish sea, until new EU/UK trade agreements are negotiated and final border solutions implemented.
You're probably correct. Even if they would want to, the relationship is "broken". Maybe we will meet again in a couple of decades.