BLM protests good for Trump?

[Augustus]

Do you think the current protests and politicking are going to help Trump's reelection prospects or harm them?
Why?

In theory, I can see good cases to be made for either, but don't really pay enough attention to US politics to see how the wider public is reacting. My guess would be that they will help him, but this is more of a hunch than a systematic evidence-based analysis and I could well be wrong.

What do you all think?

 

[Father Heathen]

By this point I don't think there is anyone on the fence to be swayed one direction or the other.

 

[Rational Agnostic]

Do you think the current protests and politicking are going to help Trump's reelection prospects or harm them?
Why?

In theory, I can see good cases to be made for either, but don't really pay enough attention to US politics to see how the wider public is reacting. My guess would be that they will help him, but this is more of a hunch than a systematic evidence-based analysis and I could well be wrong.

What do you all think?

I voted "Harm", because the way the media covers the protests makes it look as if the country is going to pieces, and people will vote for the opposing candidate in the hopes of restoring normalcy. The same thing applies to the way the media covers the coronavirus.

 

[ADigitalArtist]

I think it doesn't matter that much.even with a few notable Republicans coming out this week saying they won't vote for Trump, the saying that he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and his fanbase would find a way to justify it is still in full effect.

Though he did manage to **** a lot of people this week suggesting that the man injured in Buffalo was instigating and faked the fall, but that's Trump, not the protests themselves.

 

[Augustus]

I think it doesn't matter that much.even with a few notable Republicans coming out this week saying they won't vote for Trump, the saying that he could shoot someone on 5th Avenue and his fanbase would find a way to justify it is still in full effect.

Though he did manage to **** a lot of people this week suggesting that the man injured in Buffalo was instigating and faked the fall, but that's Trump, not the protests themselves.

What do you think about the 'defund the police' type arguments juxtaposed with mass unrest?

Not in the sense of 'do you agree' but in the sense of how you think it will play with the electorate in the privacy of the voting booth.

 

[Rational Agnostic]

What do you think about the 'defund the police' type arguments juxtaposed with mass unrest?

Not in the sense of 'do you agree' but in the sense of how you think it will play with the electorate in the privacy of the voting booth.

I can't speak for @ADigitalArtist but I don't think they will matter because Biden also opposes defunding the police.

 

[ADigitalArtist]

What do you think about the 'defund the police' type arguments juxtaposed with mass unrest?

Not in the sense of 'do you agree' but in the sense of how you think it will play with the electorate in the privacy of the voting booth.

Hard to say. I think a lot of people know issues with police is a bipartisan issue and reforms need to happen both in Republicsn and Democrat seats of power. Both have a bad track record.

It depends on whether Trump administration successfully frames the issue as 'Dems vs Troops' or whether the protests galvanize the superior numbers of dems to the booths. Again, I don't think that will solve police issues, but it could reinforce 'the status quo of Trump is not enough.'

Tangentially, I'm seeing this meme a lot.

 

[tytlyf]

It'll harm him and his base.
Can't blame them for wanting to get rid of the DemoKKKrat confederate flag from races either.

 

[ecco]

... because the way the media covers the protests makes it look as if the country is going to pieces,

What media are you watching? I see mainly peaceful protests. I see people of different races all wanting the same thing.

 

[Twilight Hue]

Do you think the current protests and politicking are going to help Trump's reelection prospects or harm them?
Why?

In theory, I can see good cases to be made for either, but don't really pay enough attention to US politics to see how the wider public is reacting. My guess would be that they will help him, but this is more of a hunch than a systematic evidence-based analysis and I could well be wrong.

What do you all think?

I think Biden running is sufficient enough of a reason for keeping Trump in office.

 

[George-ananda]

I voted 'Help Trump'. I even remember liberal black commentators calling his surprise win in 2016 a whitelash partially in response to the original BLM protests and riots.

 

[Twilight Hue]

By this point I don't think there is anyone on the fence to be swayed one direction or the other.

Maybe that would be a good position this time around just to stay on the fence.

I think people once again, as they've done in the past, will be forced to choose who they think is the lesser evil.

It's almost criminal when you think about it.

 

[esmith]

I can't speak for @ADigitalArtist but I don't think they will matter because Biden also opposes defunding the police.

Ah, but how did the left respond to the mayor of Minneapolis stance on defund and abolish the police. Joe needs the support of the left to win the election.
Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey booed by protesters after refusing to defund and abolish police - CNN

 

[metis]

I chose curtain #3 as I don't think it's going to move the needle much by itself. It will help him with his racist support, but they're pretty much in his camp already.

 

[Father Heathen]

Maybe that would be a good position this time around just to stay on the fence.

I think people once again, as they've done in the past, will be forced to choose who they think is the lesser evil.

It's almost criminal when you think about it.

The point was that if someone was swayed by ethics, they would've made a decision a long time ago. And choosing the "lesser evil" is preferable to cult-like idolization and blind, uncritical loyalty. I understand if people voted for Trump because his platform was the one that most closely matched their views, but this pretending that he's some sort of infallible, heroic godking who can do no wrong is very creepy cult-like behavior. Politics aren't sports and principles should always supersede partisanship.

 

[Father Heathen]

Ah, but how did the left respond to the mayor of Minneapolis stance on defund and abolish the police. Joe needs the support of the left to win the election.
Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey booed by protesters after refusing to defund and abolish police - CNN

So you think "the left" will vote trump if biden doesn't support defunding?

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

Neither. Sure, it'll solidify his base to circle the wagons even closer, but the base won't get him elected. And the undecided, where it's critical he retain support, has already left.

 

[esmith]

So you think "the left" will vote trump if biden doesn't support defunding?

No, but they may not vote, or vote for another candidate.

 

[Yazata]

...I don't think they will matter because gbBiden also opposes defunding the police.

The voters know where all the chaos is coming from and who it is that's calling for elimination of police protection and implicitly for the empowerment of criminals. It's all coming from democrats and from the left. Even if Joe Biden remains reasonably moderate (by democratic party standards at least), something that is by no means certain given his own statements, electing him will bring the militants a lot closer to power.

My guess is that this wave of chaos combined with the kind of anti-police and anti-white rhetoric that is coming from the left as we speak isn't going to play very well with the kind of white blue collar voters that crossed over and enabled Trump to win most of the Midwest in 2016. These are precisely the kind of patriotic, socially conservative voters that until not long ago formed the democratic party base. They are precisely the people that the democrats need to win back somehow.

That may or may not have been the democrats' motivation for pushing for the nomination of Biden in the first place, in the belief that he would appeal to the kind of voters that the dems need. Except, if the militants push Biden and the image of his party too far to the left, then that hope will likely be dashed.

 

[tytlyf]

No, but they may not vote, or vote for another candidate.

And that would help Donald. If they're that lost, then it's on them.