Trailblazer
Veteran Member
Thanks, all I can say now is.... God help us all!
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Biden could actually win
- Thread starter PoetPhilosopher
- Start date
Trailblazer
Veteran Member
So it all boils down to how fast that can count the votes in Nevada and Arizona.
PoetPhilosopher
Veteran Member
Whether Biden wins may now depend on whether he could win one of these 2 states, he doesn't need both though:
-Pennsylvania
-Nevada
As it's believed extremely likely he's going to win Michigan as the numbers are no longer there for Trump as it stands.
-Pennsylvania
-Nevada
As it's believed extremely likely he's going to win Michigan as the numbers are no longer there for Trump as it stands.
Biden is projected winner in Michigan, and continues to eat into Trump's lead in Pennsylvania
Joe Biden is projected to win Michigan, flipping a state Trump won four years ago
Joe Biden is projected to win Michigan, flipping a state Trump won four years ago
How fast the votes are counted has nothing to do with who will be the winner, a winner is declared when a candidate is projected to win 270 electoral votes, it takes time to count all the votes depending on each states policies, but how long it takes says nothing about who is the winner. The winner is the one that gets the majority in enough states to have 270 electoral votes, right now a win in Nevada or Pennsylvania would put Biden over the top, or a win in Georgia which is less likely.. we will possibly have a winner projected by tomorrow, but probably not tonight. For Trump to win he would have to win Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Georgia, which is less likely.
PoetPhilosopher
Veteran Member
The TV told me that Biden's lead in Michigan is beyond the number of remaining votes in Michigan despite them not declaring a winner yet.
PoetPhilosopher
Veteran Member
Yeah, who gets where first doesn't matter. It takes 270 electoral votes out of 538 to win. If neither gets 270, the government seems to go into an elaborate process to decide.
Friend of Mara
Active Member
Arizona seems pretty locked in for Biden. More or less it seems like the whole election hinges on Nevada. Which...I mean kudos for this election to throw me for a loop.
On another note...is Florida even a swing state anymore? It was convincingly for trump. They dumped something like 23% of mail in votes but even if every single one of those was blue it wouldn't be enough to swing the state.
PoetPhilosopher
Veteran Member
That's American politics for ya - pure entertainment.
PoetPhilosopher
Veteran Member
My speculation is that there's about a 55% chance Trump will win Pennsylvania and a 45% chance Biden will.
I think it will come down to Nevada.
I think it will come down to Nevada.
Since early this morning Trump has gone from 11% ahead in Penn, to 5% ahead with still 14% of the vote left to be counted, that change occurred over only about 11% of the vote being counted, from 75%-86% counted. So if this trend continues, Biden will win by a percent or two. Over this time Trump's lead has dropped from 800,000 to about 300,000 votes, if this trend continues Biden will win by 200-300,000 votes. This is because all of these ballots are mail in ballots and mail in leans heavily Democratic. But I agree, either candidate could win, which might leave it all up to Nevada, but remember all the remaining votes in Nevada are going to be mail in, which lean Democratic.
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PoetPhilosopher
Veteran Member
His hopes of winning growing dim, Trump looks to halt vote counting in Pennsylvania
For the record, I think a judge will toss his case out.
For the record, I think a judge will toss his case out.
Yerda
Veteran Member
I don't know how good a source Sophia Bush is but she shared a message from a friend working on the Republican campaign conceding defeat in PA due to the makeup of the mail in vote. And then I read an editor from Politico saying Democratic strategists are expecting to win PA by 100-200k once mail ins are counted.
Could all be hot air for all I know...
But I've been following it and the Penn vote count is going a lot slower than Michigan's, we might not even have a winner by tomorrow evening.
Daemon Sophic
Avatar in flux
When there are too many votes for party X or Y for even a landslide against them with the few remaining uncounted votes, then the race is called....in the news. The poll counters continue regardless until the last ballot is counted in each state.
As of right now, while PA is sliding toward Biden, I think it will really come down to NV alone.
Biden is currently ahead by a mere 8,000 votes, but I think they are counting mail-ins, which are favoring Biden.
The final count (crossing my fingers) will be Biden - 270 vs Trump - 268.
May all your theist gods have mercy on us and let Biden win.
PoetPhilosopher
Veteran Member
I heard in an article yesterday that the Pennsylvania vote counting will speed up late tonight. Of course, what I was hearing may have been hot air, or I could have misunderstood it.