Australia's second COVID wave

[lewisnotmiller]

Hi folks,

Just a quick update from down here...
Australia is now suffering from a second wave, after having been very successful in controlling the COVID spread.
This is centred around Melbourne (ie. my home) with particular suburbs having gone on lockdown to try and prevent this spreading.
As of tonight the whole metropolitan area is on stage 3 lockdown once again, for six weeks initially.

There are also reports of elevated case numbers in the border area between Victoria and NSW due to people trying to beat the border curfew (to get home, etc)

Fair to say a lot of people here are feeling very flat after having thought we were through the worst of it. And yes, I completely realise how misguided that perception was, just reporting on what I see as the general vibe.

 

[truthseeker7]

stay safe

 

[lewisnotmiller]

stay safe

The particular little pocket of Melbourne where I live has basically no cases (maybe 1 I think). It's strange how isolated the pockets are, but they are reaching a point where a rapid spread is possible (hence lockdown).

But thanks!!

 

[sun rise]

One thing us American-centric people need to think about is what's happening around the world. Yes we have a few ding bat governors like the one in Florida, but even in states which have been careful the illness count is going back up.

The attack on someone enforcing masks in Francis and this report from Australia show the universal nature of what we're all going through.

We all need to practice staying safe.

 

[shunyadragon]

Hi folks,

Just a quick update from down here...
Australia is now suffering from a second wave, after having been very successful in controlling the COVID spread.
This is centred around Melbourne (ie. my home) with particular suburbs having gone on lockdown to try and prevent this spreading.
As of tonight the whole metropolitan area is on stage 3 lockdown once again, for six weeks initially.

There are also reports of elevated case numbers in the border area between Victoria and NSW due to people trying to beat the border curfew (to get home, etc)

Fair to say a lot of people here are feeling very flat after having thought we were through the worst of it. And yes, I completely realise how misguided that perception was, just reporting on what I see as the general vibe.

Based on the nature of the coronavirus, and other zoonotic viruses they are not effectively controlled or eliminated by human efforts, especially without vaccines nor effective treatments. We have some effective treatments beginning in the wings, bit actually the coronavirus is in control. The second wave in Australia is the same second wave found in most other countries including the USA. Smaller more isolated uniform countries like Taiwan and New Zealand have a more uniform bell curve and may or may not show a second wave. If its any comfort the second wave usually has a lower fatality rate.

Fear of the unknown has generated a great deal of confusion and panic. The facts are, though new and novel this is just another virus we may or may not have to deal with in the future.

We do not defeat zoonotic viruses we develop vaccines and technology to reduce the cases and fatality rates, but ultimately zoonotic viruses have been around at least since humans have been human, and we are one of their many hosts.

Do not be two discouraged this corona virus will most likely pass this trip, and may or may not return in the future.

 

[Thief]

after having been very successful in controlling the COVID spread.

I don't think of it as a success

any subsequent wave is indication.....the virus will spread

take your vitamins
stop eating junk food

you can wear the mask if you want to
or have to

 

[wandering peacefully]

Fear of the unknown has generated a great deal of confusion and panic. The facts are, though new and novel this is just another virus we may or may not have to deal with in the future.

It's not so much a fear of the unknown in the us states. More a stupidity of refusing science in favor of tribalism led on by our great orange one and those who think the same. We suck. We need so much more funding for education and health instead of war machines and special interests. Embarrassing really. And dangerous. And before you attack me, I appreciate your views on the reality of science and the value of knowledge over beliefs , self absorption and denial. I'm still hiding in the woods. Waiting for the vaccine and other treatments. And knowing that Covid 20 and 21 are most certainly around the next corner.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

Based on the nature of the coronavirus, and other zoonotic viruses they are not effectively controlled or eliminated by human efforts, especially without vaccines nor effective treatments. We have some effective treatments beginning in the wings, bit actually the coronavirus is in control. The second wave in Australia is the same second wave found in most other countries including the USA. Smaller more isolated uniform countries like Taiwan and New Zealand have a more uniform bell curve and may or may not show a second wave. If its any comfort the second wave usually has a lower fatality rate.

Thing is, we have some of the same conditions as New Zealand. Lower population density, defensible sea borders, etc.
So our best case scenario was that we could bring the virus under control, and deal swiftly with outbreaks.
That has been working well in Perth, for example (which is the most isolated city of a million people in the world). There has been success to a degree in Melbourne, but we had a couple of particular problems which weren't initially apparent.
Some of our quarantine procedures for incoming people were not effectively administered. And some particular familial groups simply ignored the whole thing, leading to community transmissions in the North West of the city.

Fatality rates are low here (at the moment) and our hospital system is very capable and under control (at the moment).

Fear of the unknown has generated a great deal of confusion and panic. The facts are, though new and novel this is just another virus we may or may not have to deal with in the future.

We do not defeat zoonotic viruses we develop vaccines and technology to reduce the cases and fatality rates, but ultimately zoonotic viruses have been around at least since humans have been human, and we are one of their many hosts.

Yes, agreed.

Do not be two discouraged this corona virus will most likely pass this trip, and may or may not return in the future.

I'm coping well, as is my immediate family, but we'll have to drop back into the emotional and financial support type role most likely. The problem with people thinking you're coping well is that they then turn to you for assistance...(mostly joking there, but there's an element of truth)

I also have a small amount of concern for my wife. She's pregnant, and a nurse, so her safety is a little more of a consideration than mine or my older kids.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

I don't think of it as a success

any subsequent wave is indication.....the virus will spread

take your vitamins
stop eating junk food

you can wear the mask if you want to
or have to

You're welcome to your opinion. Our initial aim was to flatten the curve so our hospital system would be able to cope with the amount of ICU patients they would receive. In that, we were successful.
Our death count (whilst still tragic) is at 106, so in terms of limiting fatalities, we've also had some success.

I didn't mean to suggest we'd 'beaten' the virus. In that respect I'm not sure what success even looks like, short of a possible vaccine in the future.

 

[Deeje]

@lewisnotmiller I believe that some Victorians who crossed the border determined to have their school holidays have copped a fair bit of abuse here in NSW. Cars with Victorian plates have been vandalized and abuse hurled at the 'Mexicans' from down south to go home. Its becoming like a war zone....as fear grips in this second wave that we all knew was coming......we learned nothing from the pandemic of last century and we know more today so what's the excuse?

My daughter runs a little shop in one of the coastal villages and she has said that people just walk into the shop oblivious to the Covid regulations, as if the virus did not exist.

What's with the complacency?

 

[lewisnotmiller]

@lewisnotmiller I believe that some Victorians who crossed the border determined to have their school holidays have copped a fair bit of abuse here in NSW. Cars with Victorian plates have been vandalized and abuse hurled at the 'Mexicans' from down south to go home. Its becoming like a war zone....as fear grips in this second wave that we all knew was coming......we learned nothing from the pandemic of last century and we know more today so what's the excuse?

My daughter runs a little shop in one of the coastal villages and she has said that people just walk into the shop oblivious to the Covid regulations, as if the virus did not exist.

What's with the complacency?

A few things I think, although I'm guessing...

1) There was a feeling that we were winning, and more people became complacent.
2) Our restrictions were stricter all the way along, so once finally relaxed a lot of people here thought it must have been super-safe, since we'd stayed in lockdown longer, despite few cases.
3) Our hotel quarantine program appears to have been mismanaged, and not enough independent health professionals were involved. Instead, hotels were hiring security guards, etc to run the programs.
4) A relatively small number of infection points lead to many cases due to large familial gatherings which were completely against advice and directions. These were largely in the North West of Melbourne, and between them and the community housing buildings, a lot of cases arose.

We shook our heads in disbelief when we saw Sydney-siders gathering at Bondi in the initial wave, so it seems fair we cop some of that now.

But abuse and vandalization is ridiculous. My parents live on the border, but bought their car in Vic. It would be batguano crazy if they were subjected to abuse for being Victorian.

In any case, where I live is very calm and COVID free at the moment. I'm hoping that lasts!!

 

[lewisnotmiller]

@lewisnotmiller I believe that some Victorians who crossed the border determined to have their school holidays have copped a fair bit of abuse here in NSW. Cars with Victorian plates have been vandalized and abuse hurled at the 'Mexicans' from down south to go home. Its becoming like a war zone....as fear grips in this second wave that we all knew was coming......we learned nothing from the pandemic of last century and we know more today so what's the excuse?

My daughter runs a little shop in one of the coastal villages and she has said that people just walk into the shop oblivious to the Covid regulations, as if the virus did not exist.

What's with the complacency?

Oh, meant to say...Vic's who crossed the border for school hols (and I know one couple who did do) were being selfish. Doesn't mean they deserve abuse, but it would be so much easier if people set aside their own wants, and focused on everyone's needs for a while.

 

[PureX]

The particular little pocket of Melbourne where I live has basically no cases (maybe 1 I think). It's strange how isolated the pockets are, but they are reaching a point where a rapid spread is possible (hence lockdown).

But thanks!!

It's the lockdown IN ADVANCE of the spread that is most effective. But people have a difficult time accepting that.

 

[lewisnotmiller]

It's the lockdown IN ADVANCE of the spread that is most effective. But people have a difficult time accepting that.

Agreed. We did that first time around. This time we're trailing which is problematic.

 

[Secret Chief]

Yes lockdown AHEAD of the spread. That's why the UK has the third highest deaths in the world. USA, Brazil, UK....not having an idiot leader is another good strategy.
Stay safe Mr Lewis.

 

[Deeje]

Oh, meant to say...Vic's who crossed the border for school hols (and I know one couple who did do) were being selfish. Doesn't mean they deserve abuse, but it would be so much easier if people set aside their own wants, and focused on everyone's needs for a while.

What do you think of NSW's Premier talking about moving the border 100 klms north? Its too hard for the border dwellers to take their kids to school or to go to work....

Sounds a bit drastic...but how drastic do we need to be? We have never been here before....

 

[lewisnotmiller]

What do you think of NSW's Premier talking about moving the border 100 klms north? Its too hard for the border dwellers to take their kids to school or to go to work....

Sounds a bit drastic...but how drastic do we need to be? We have never been here before....

I get the idea. I thought we should have a zone 20km of the border both sides that's like its own zone (move freely within, no entry or exit without permit).

Same concept though, because it's true that it gets hard for border folk. Where my parents live, the medical facilities are all on the Victorian side.

Ultimately it's harder to enforce and patrol than the border itself, so I'm not sure how practical my idea...or the NSW premiers...actually is.

 

[Thief]

You're welcome to your opinion. Our initial aim was to flatten the curve so our hospital system would be able to cope with the amount of ICU patients they would receive. In that, we were successful.
Our death count (whilst still tragic) is at 106, so in terms of limiting fatalities, we've also had some success.

I didn't mean to suggest we'd 'beaten' the virus. In that respect I'm not sure what success even looks like, short of a possible vaccine in the future.

I can't help but to say......it will run it's course

it's all chemistry
and it will invade all territories
and all that live there

I have posted often.....your chemistry is your fortress

this curve that everyone points to is not the curve to note
the curve that counts is the timely effort to strengthen yourself
cut out your bad habits

you will be infected

you must assimilate the intruder to survive the intrusion

 

[shunyadragon]

Israel foolishly believed that they could get it under control. The bottom line is the virus is in charge. Most countries face the second surge, or have already had it.

Israel had the coronavirus under control. What happened? - CNN

Jerusalem (CNN)

For months, Israel appeared to be an international model of coronavirus success.

With early travel restrictions and sweeping closures, the Startup Nation had largely contained the spread of Covid-19, recording a mortality rate that was far better than many countries in the Western world. As coronavirus tore across the United States and Europe, Israel was comfortably moving towards reopening.
Lest there be any doubt about who led the country through these difficult times, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu routinely held evening press conferences to remind everyone, warning about the newest challenges and taking credit for the latest victories.
On April 18, almost exactly two months after Israel discovered its first case of coronavirus, Netanyahu declared that the country had succeeded in its fight against coronavirus, setting an example for the world "in safeguarding life and blocking the outbreak of the pandemic." He predicted Israel would set an example in restarting the economy as well.


If only the story ended there.
Israel's first wave of coronavirus was a success story, but the second wave its health experts are cataloguing appears to be on track for a very different ending.

Funeral workers carry the body of a Covid-19 patient at a cemetery in the central Israeli city of Rehovot on April 21.
Just weeks after reopening restaurants, malls and beaches, Israel is now seeing a 50-fold surge in new coronavirus cases. From approximately 20 new cases a day in mid-May to more than 1,000 new cases a day less than two months later, Israel is rushing to once again close venues it so recently rushed to open.

On Monday, Netanyahu announced that gyms, pools, event halls, pubs and more would close indefinitely, while restaurants and houses of worship would operate with limited numbers. Desperate to avoid a complete lockdown with unemployment already at more than 20%, Netanyahu issued a stark warning.
"Today, there are around 90 severe cases and the number is doubling every four days. If we do not act now, we will have hundreds, and perhaps over 1,000, severe cases in the coming weeks, which will paralyze our systems," Netanyahu said. "All citizens of Israel know, or need to understand, that we must now take limited actions, with as minimal an economic impact as possible, in order to avoid those extreme measures that will paralyze the economy."

 

[Quagmire]

It's the wallabies, Dave. You know it and I know it.

Sneaky, border-hopping little turds.

Just saying what everybody was thinking.
( stay safe, Man)