Asymptomatic Covid-19 Transmission

[Salvador]

Days before the casinos shut down in late March, Happy-go-lucky Mr. Player was counting his hundreds of dollars he won by card counting in casino blackjack However, Mr. Player never counted on contracting Covid-19. He never realized there might be something inside of him seriously wrong. He figured his seasonal allergies were acting up a bit more and earlier than usual; however, other than this, everything seemed fine to him. Mr.Player might have unwittingly transmitted Covid-19 to dozens of blackjack players. Now Mr.Player's luck has turned to misfortune. All his Blackjack winnings have been spent on a stockpile of food, bottled water, alcohol, weapons and ammunition. The casinos have been closed for a couple of weeks, and since then Mr.Player has been at home with his wife who has been quarantined until April 16th for having symptoms of being mildly ill by Covid-19. Neither Mr.Player nor his wife can get tested for Covid-19, because there aren't enough of these tests available to be administered on anybody who is less than critically ill. Mr.Player is anxious in knowing if he or his loved ones have been infected by Covid-19. There needs to be more testing for Covid-19! I suspect there are thousands upon thousands of Americans lurking around who are unwittingly transmitting this Corona virus disease. Mr.Player's chosen leader President Donald J.Trump promised Covid-19 testing is available to anybody who wants a Covid-19 test. However, the truth is there isn't enough Covid-19 testing available to anybody who suspects he has been infected by this Corona virus.

 

[exchemist]

Days before the casinos shut down in late March, Happy-go-lucky Mr. Player was counting his hundreds of dollars he won by card counting in casino blackjack However, Mr. Player never counted on contracting Covid-19. He never realized there might be something inside of him seriously wrong. He figured his seasonal allergies were acting up a bit more and earlier than usual; however, other than this, everything seemed fine to him. Mr.Player might have unwittingly transmitted Covid-19 to dozens of blackjack players. Now Mr.Player's luck has turned to misfortune. All his Blackjack winnings have been spent on a stockpile of food, bottled water, alcohol, weapons and ammunition. The casinos have been closed for a couple of weeks, and since then Mr.Player has been at home with his wife who has been quarantined until April 16th for having symptoms of being mildly ill by Covid-19. Neither Mr.Player nor his wife can get tested for Covid-19, because there aren't enough of these tests available to be administered on anybody who is less than critically ill. Mr.Player is anxious in knowing if he or his loved ones have been infected by Covid-19. There needs to be more testing for Covid-19! I suspect there are thousands upon thousands of Americans lurking around who are unwittingly transmitting this Corona virus disease. Mr.Player's chosen leader President Donald J.Trump promised Covid-19 testing is available to anybody who wants a Covid-19 test. However, the truth is there isn't enough Covid-19 testing available to anybody who suspects he has been infected by this Corona virus.

It is not a matter of "suspecting", so I have not filled in your poll.

It is a matter of public record that in many countries the only people tested are those that are ill enough to be sent to hospital. Since we know that only a small fraction of sufferers get that sick, it follows that the total number of infections is far greater than the number of confirmed cases, possibly by a factor of 10 or more.

 

[Regiomontanus]

Days before the casinos shut down in late March, Happy-go-lucky Mr. Player was counting his hundreds of dollars he won by card counting in casino blackjack However, Mr. Player never counted on contracting Covid-19. He never realized there might be something inside of him seriously wrong. He figured his seasonal allergies were acting up a bit more and earlier than usual; however, other than this, everything seemed fine to him. Mr.Player might have unwittingly transmitted Covid-19 to dozens of blackjack players. Now Mr.Player's luck has turned to misfortune. All his Blackjack winnings have been spent on a stockpile of food, bottled water, alcohol, weapons and ammunition. The casinos have been closed for a couple of weeks, and since then Mr.Player has been at home with his wife who has been quarantined until April 16th for having symptoms of being mildly ill by Covid-19. Neither Mr.Player nor his wife can get tested for Covid-19, because there aren't enough of these tests available to be administered on anybody who is less than critically ill. Mr.Player is anxious in knowing if he or his loved ones have been infected by Covid-19. There needs to be more testing for Covid-19! I suspect there are thousands upon thousands of Americans lurking around who are unwittingly transmitting this Corona virus disease. Mr.Player's chosen leader President Donald J.Trump promised Covid-19 testing is available to anybody who wants a Covid-19 test. However, the truth is there isn't enough Covid-19 testing available to anybody who suspects he has been infected by this Corona virus.

I was a bit more forgiving on the language than @exchemist and voted yes.

 

[Kenny]

I voted "yes". I suspect since the extreme cases are generally those with compromised constitutions, many healthy people had there immune system fight it off and they were ignorant of the fact that it was covid-19

 

[Kenny]

Light at the end of the tunnel

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

 

[exchemist]

View attachment 38697

Light at the end of the tunnel

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

This graph seems to be the number of new cases reported each day.

The note explains that the apparent decline on the right may be because "illnesses that began during this time may not have been reported". So that portion of the histogram should be ignored. However there does seem to be some flattening of the rate of rise of the bars, to the left of that section. Let's hope - it's about time for the lockdown effects to start coming through. We seem to be seeing the same sort of thing starting to happen in London, though the experts are rightly very cautious.

But bear in mind that since these are new cases each day, each new bar constitutes an additional strain on stretched health resources if it is higher than the rate at which recovering and dead patients are discharged from medical care. It would in fact be interesting to see what rate those are running at, to gauge how the strain on the hospitals is likely to evolve over the next fortnight.

But a useful graph.

 

[Regiomontanus]

View attachment 38697

Light at the end of the tunnel

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in the U.S.

We have tested so few people...not sure how representative the graph is of the real number. But it may be pointing to a positive development.

 

[exchemist]

We have tested so few people...not sure how representative the graph is of the real number. But it may be pointing to a positive development.

I imagine that if the basis on which people are tested is not changing (e.g. as in the UK, only those bad enough to be sent to hospital), then the trend in these numbers should be reflective of a trend in total infections. But I don't know whether in the USA the testing policy has been consistent - there seems to be little national coordination.

 

[Regiomontanus]

I imagine that if the basis on which people are tested is not changing (e.g. as in the UK, only those bad enough to be sent to hospital), then the trend in these numbers should be reflective of a trend in total infections. But I don't know whether in the USA the testing policy has been consistent - there seems to be little national coordination.

little coordination? I give you the understatement of the year frubal.

Sorry for the sidetrack, but I have been meaning to ask you what field in chemistry was your thing? My late wife was a biochemist.

 

[exchemist]

little coordination? I give you the understatement of the year frubal.

Sorry for the sidetrack, but I have been meaning to ask you what field in chemistry was your thing? My late wife was a biochemist.

Well, I'm not in the States and can only go by UK newspaper reports, so had better be careful what I assume. But it does seem to be a bit of a dog's breakfast.

I studied the 3 main branches at university, did the QM supplementary course and a Part II research year on gas kinetics, so I'm probably mainly a physical chemist by inclination. My career however was in the oil industry (lubricants) so that was more a mix of organic chemistry and mechanical engineering, plus some analytical chemistry while I worked in quality assurance.

 

[Kenny]

We have tested so few people...not sure how representative the graph is of the real number. But it may be pointing to a positive development.

That is true... but you are still correct in that it is pointing to a positive development. As the original post statement and statistics have said, many others have contracted but were asymptomatic. So the graph still represents those who are obviously tested positive

 

[Salvador]

I imagine that if the basis on which people are tested is not changing (e.g. as in the UK, only those bad enough to be sent to hospital), then the trend in these numbers should be reflective of a trend in total infections. But I don't know whether in the USA the testing policy has been consistent - there seems to be little national coordination.

Template:COVID-19 testing - Wikipedia

Only ca. six thousand out of a million people in the state of Illinois as of now have been tested for Covid-19, and only ca. four thousand out of a million Brits have been tested for Covid-19.

Our thoughts and best regards to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, wishing him a speedy recovery.

 

[Daemon Sophic]

Well, I'm not in the States and can only go by UK newspaper reports, so had better be careful what I assume. But it does seem to be a bit of a dog's breakfast.

I studied the 3 main branches at university, did the QM supplementary course and a Part II research year on gas kinetics, so I'm probably mainly a physical chemist by inclination. My career however was in the oil industry (lubricants) so that was more a mix of organic chemistry and mechanical engineering, plus some analytical chemistry while I worked in quality assurance.

Gas kinetics and engineering? Coolio . Frubals just for being you. My mom was a fluid dynamicist engineering professor (now retired).

As for the OP, yes, it is likely that the true numbers of infected is at least 5 to 10 times as much as is reported, since what is reported is solely the number who have “tested positive”. In the US, as in many countries, the limited number of test kits available as well as the social isolation, means that only people with fever and other flu-like symptoms are even (allowed to) come in for a swab test kit.
This probably also explains the mortality rate of roughly 20% that we are seeing for those who test as positive vs those who have “recovered” (you have to be pretty bad before you report for a swab). This while the epidemiologists are estimating a 2-3% mortality rate overall.
We won’t know the true percentages until many months from now, as they get ready to vaccinate the general population. Only then , with antibody testing in the general population, will we see how many really caught the virus, and can get an idea of what range of milder symptoms were passed over in early 2020.

 

[exchemist]

That is true... but you are still correct in that it is pointing to a positive development. As the original post statement and statistics have said, many others have contracted but were asymptomatic. So the graph still represents those who are obviously tested positive

And don't forget there will also be a huge mass of people who got symptoms, perhaps mildly like me or even quite badly, but not badly enough to go to hospital. In the UK, such people would not have been tested either, so they would not show up in the reported or confirmed stats.

 

[exchemist]

View attachment 38707

Template:COVID-19 testing - Wikipedia

Only ca. six thousand out of a million people in the state of Illinois as of now have been tested for Covid-19, and only ca. four thousand out of a million Brits have been tested for Covid-19.

Our thoughts and best regards to Prime Minister Boris Johnson, wishing him a speedy recovery.

What a horrible photo: two of the politicians I most detest, captured together. It's a wonder it didn't crack the lens.
But I would not wish Bozo dead, it's true.