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Actual conspiracies - no theories allowed

Harel13

Am Yisrael Chai
Staff member
Premium Member
If'n it ain't secret, it ain't a conspiracy (IMO).
Otherwise it's just a plan.
I know of the agreement. It sounds, however, that the secret protocol was somehow very insidious. Is it because it pointed to the USSR's interest in annexing those areas?
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
I know of the agreement. It sounds, however, that the secret protocol was somehow very insidious. Is it because it pointed to the USSR's interest in annexing those areas?
More than that. Imagine how much more successful
the Nazis would've been if the USSR were an ally.
 

9-10ths_Penguin

1/10 Subway Stalinist
Premium Member
Howdy people of RF.
I'm hoping you can all help me with something I'm thinking about. Many people have mentioned that I appear to need help thinking clearly, here's your chance!!

What I'm interested in are the largest conspiracies you are aware of. I don't need a huge amount of information on them (just a blurb is fine) since I'm happy to use some google-fu on the details.
What I'm not interested on are conspiracy theories. I much prefer examples of large-scale conspiracy which have been proven to be true.

Doesn't matter to me how recent they are. I mean, down the track it may, but not at this point of my little thought exercise.

I'm happy to share what my brain is chewing on at some point, but in the very short term I'd prefer not to. I'm not sure if it would colour people's responses or not.

So...bring it on. Large scale conspiracies that have proven to be ACTUAL conspiracies, and not just possible/theoretical/tin foil hat ones.
The Mukden Incident:

Mukden Incident - Wikipedia

In 1931, rogue Japanese army officers staged the bombing of the South Manchuria Railway - controlled by the Japanese - and tried to make it appear as if the Chinese did it.

Largely to save face - because letting the truth be known would have signalled to other countries that the Japanese state couldn't control its military - the Japanese government responded as if the attack really was by the Chinese.

The incident led to the Japanese invasion of Manchuria and the setting up of Manchkuo, a puppet state loyal to Japan. It arguably was the ultimate reason behind Japan's involvement in World War 2 a few years later.
 

lewisnotmiller

Grand Hat
Staff member
Premium Member
Thank you to everyone who's responded so far.
There are many good ideas here. In a way I feel bad for crowd-sourcing my research but at the same time this has given me a nice spread of things and removed some risk of my bias.

I'll spend some time trying to group the ideas.

As some have no doubt guessed, I'm trying to organise my thoughts on when and where conspiracies are successful, and how they are uncovered.

I don't doubt that conspiracies occur, and also don't doubt many conspiracy theories are bunkum. Between those two poles is what I'm trying to better understand.

So...please don't take my lack of response to each post as disinterest. I'm very interested, but trying not to drop into conversations and debate based on my interest or background on some of what's been put forth.
 

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Perhaps the conspiracy to kill Caesar.

The Bolshevik seizure of power on November 7, 1917 might be considered one.

Thank you to everyone who's responded so far.
There are many good ideas here. In a way I feel bad for crowd-sourcing my research but at the same time this has given me a nice spread of things and removed some risk of my bias.

I'll spend some time trying to group the ideas.

As some have no doubt guessed, I'm trying to organise my thoughts on when and where conspiracies are successful, and how they are uncovered.

I don't doubt that conspiracies occur, and also don't doubt many conspiracy theories are bunkum. Between those two poles is what I'm trying to better understand.

So...please don't take my lack of response to each post as disinterest. I'm very interested, but trying not to drop into conversations and debate based on my interest or background on some of what's been put forth.

I look at conspiracy theories as simply acknowledging the possibility that "power corrupts."

I don't have any real problem with conspiracy theories, and I struggle to understand why some people do.

In fact, sometimes I've noticed that some of the anti-conspiracy theorists tend to be even more obsessed and wacko than some of the conspiracy theorists.

I remember spending some time on a message board where the topic of discussion was Oliver Stone's film JFK. There were essentially two camps, the Conspiracy Theorists (CT) and the Lone Nutters (LN; or those who believe Oswald acted alone). The CT crowd actually came across as more lucid and polite, while the LNers were highly emotional about the whole thing - as if they had some kind of personal stake in trying to persuade people against believing in conspiracies.

The way I saw it was one of two ways:

1. If the Conspiracy Theorists were correct, then a military coup took place and America is not the "free" country that everyone thinks it is. If that's true, then the LNers are, in effect, opposing justice and freedom in the United States. That makes the LNers into truly horrible people.

2. If the Conspiracy Theorists were not correct, then their theories are nothing more than idle speculation which harms no one - except perhaps the government, but I'm sure they'll survive. No harm, no foul, so why would the LNers get their panties in a bunch over someone's "theory"? Why do they get so emotional, as if it's a matter which affects them personally?
 

Brickjectivity

Turned to Stone. Now I stretch daily.
Staff member
Premium Member
You'll have to decide if the Debeers diamond cartel was secret for very long and whether it was ever a conspiracy or something else.

 

Kangaroo Feathers

Yea, it is written in the Book of Cyril...
Howdy people of RF.
I'm hoping you can all help me with something I'm thinking about. Many people have mentioned that I appear to need help thinking clearly, here's your chance!!

What I'm interested in are the largest conspiracies you are aware of. I don't need a huge amount of information on them (just a blurb is fine) since I'm happy to use some google-fu on the details.
What I'm not interested on are conspiracy theories. I much prefer examples of large-scale conspiracy which have been proven to be true.

Doesn't matter to me how recent they are. I mean, down the track it may, but not at this point of my little thought exercise.

I'm happy to share what my brain is chewing on at some point, but in the very short term I'd prefer not to. I'm not sure if it would colour people's responses or not.

So...bring it on. Large scale conspiracies that have proven to be ACTUAL conspiracies, and not just possible/theoretical/tin foil hat ones.
Well, Watergate, Saudi involvement in 9/11, Gulf of Tonkin, and MK Ultra are all things that were once thought to be conspiracy theories, but later turned out to be conspiracy fact.

Is that the sort of thing you were after?
 

9-10ths_Penguin

1/10 Subway Stalinist
Premium Member
The way I saw it was one of two ways:

1. If the Conspiracy Theorists were correct, then a military coup took place and America is not the "free" country that everyone thinks it is. If that's true, then the LNers are, in effect, opposing justice and freedom in the United States. That makes the LNers into truly horrible people.

2. If the Conspiracy Theorists were not correct, then their theories are nothing more than idle speculation which harms no one - except perhaps the government, but I'm sure they'll survive. No harm, no foul, so why would the LNers get their panties in a bunch over someone's "theory"? Why do they get so emotional, as if it's a matter which affects them personally?
Not really. Whichever conspiracy a conspiracy theorist subscribes to about the JFK assassination, they have one idea in common: the idea that it takes a huge amount of effort and skill to kill a president.

There's a weird sort of comfort in that, because it suggests that catastrophes are rare and will have plenty of warning signs that we, if we're diligent enough, can spot so that we can stop these catastrophes before they happen.

The alternative: the idea that a president can be killed by a single angry individual with mediocre marksmanship skills and a mail-order rifle, suggests that things are very vulnerable and precarious. This can be very discomforting (which is why, IMO, conspiracy theories are so appealing for many people: they provide a way to avoid grappling with this uncomfortable vulnerability).

So there really is a lot of danger in what conspiracy theorists peddle. They try to sell the idea that truly existential threats will involve so many people and moving parts that you can spot them coming with enough time to prepare for them if you're watchful enough.

This is kinda like telling people on a powerboat "don't worry about wearing your life jacket - if anything happens, you'll have time to put it on."
 

Left Coast

This Is Water
Staff member
Premium Member
Howdy people of RF.
I'm hoping you can all help me with something I'm thinking about. Many people have mentioned that I appear to need help thinking clearly, here's your chance!!

What I'm interested in are the largest conspiracies you are aware of. I don't need a huge amount of information on them (just a blurb is fine) since I'm happy to use some google-fu on the details.
What I'm not interested on are conspiracy theories. I much prefer examples of large-scale conspiracy which have been proven to be true.

Doesn't matter to me how recent they are. I mean, down the track it may, but not at this point of my little thought exercise.

I'm happy to share what my brain is chewing on at some point, but in the very short term I'd prefer not to. I'm not sure if it would colour people's responses or not.

So...bring it on. Large scale conspiracies that have proven to be ACTUAL conspiracies, and not just possible/theoretical/tin foil hat ones.

Tuskegee Syphilis Study on black men:

How the Public Learned About the Infamous Tuskegee Syphilis Study

CIA black sites for torture:

Inside the CIA’s black site torture room

Mapping CIA Black Sites – Amnesty International USA
 

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Not really. Whichever conspiracy a conspiracy theorist subscribes to about the JFK assassination, they have one idea in common: the idea that it takes a huge amount of effort and skill to kill a president.

There's a weird sort of comfort in that, because it suggests that catastrophes are rare and will have plenty of warning signs that we, if we're diligent enough, can spot so that we can stop these catastrophes before they happen.

Not sure that I see it that way. I think the early conspiracy theories about JFK coincided with the Civil Rights movement and the anti-war movement, when the activities of the government were widely questioned and under greater scrutiny. I don't see that they were trying to give any comfort to people.

The alternative: the idea that a president can be killed by a single angry individual with mediocre marksmanship skills and a mail-order rifle, suggests that things are very vulnerable and precarious. This can be very discomforting (which is why, IMO, conspiracy theories are so appealing for many people: they provide a way to avoid grappling with this uncomfortable vulnerability).

So there really is a lot of danger in what conspiracy theorists peddle. They try to sell the idea that truly existential threats will involve so many people and moving parts that you can spot them coming with enough time to prepare for them if you're watchful enough.

This is kinda like telling people on a powerboat "don't worry about wearing your life jacket - if anything happens, you'll have time to put it on."

I agree that there might be some degree of harm from conspiracy theorists, although I don't think I would use the word "danger."

But one thing that seems to be a common thread among conspiracy theories is that they speak of powerful, colossal forces which are far beyond that of mortal men. Far from giving comfort, the message they send is that the elite are just sooooo powerful that there's nothing we can do, and we're all screwed no matter what we do. That's where I would find some basis of criticism against conspiracy theories. It may contribute to a lot of the political apathy and malaise we see out there.

However, there is one thing that conspiracy theories do call attention to, regardless of whether their theories are true or not. They call attention to the lack of transparency and the overall culture of secrecy which exists in government.

That's why I don't have a great deal of sympathy for the government if someone accuses them of some crime or other malfeasance - even if it's wild, convoluted, tinfoil hat type stuff. I'm actually somewhat amused by it, yet some people express such outrage that someone would actually accuse the government.
 

Kangaroo Feathers

Yea, it is written in the Book of Cyril...
Not sure that I see it that way. I think the early conspiracy theories about JFK coincided with the Civil Rights movement and the anti-war movement, when the activities of the government were widely questioned and under greater scrutiny. I don't see that they were trying to give any comfort to people.



I agree that there might be some degree of harm from conspiracy theorists, although I don't think I would use the word "danger."

But one thing that seems to be a common thread among conspiracy theories is that they speak of powerful, colossal forces which are far beyond that of mortal men. Far from giving comfort, the message they send is that the elite are just sooooo powerful that there's nothing we can do, and we're all screwed no matter what we do. That's where I would find some basis of criticism against conspiracy theories. It may contribute to a lot of the political apathy and malaise we see out there.

However, there is one thing that conspiracy theories do call attention to, regardless of whether their theories are true or not. They call attention to the lack of transparency and the overall culture of secrecy which exists in government.

That's why I don't have a great deal of sympathy for the government if someone accuses them of some crime or other malfeasance - even if it's wild, convoluted, tinfoil hat type stuff. I'm actually somewhat amused by it, yet some people express such outrage that someone would actually accuse the government.
To a certain sort of mind, the idea that the world is controlled and directed by sinister, shadowy powers beyond our reach is more comforting than the idea or random stuff occurring. There's also the human tendency to blame others for our own failings. Can't find a job, afford a nice car or send the kids to a nice school? Blaming some evil entity is a lot more attractive than acknowledging the problem might be you. It's also easier and more satisfying to blame China for your economic wows than it is to confront the underlying causes.
 

9-10ths_Penguin

1/10 Subway Stalinist
Premium Member
But one thing that seems to be a common thread among conspiracy theories is that they speak of powerful, colossal forces which are far beyond that of mortal men. Far from giving comfort, the message they send is that the elite are just sooooo powerful that there's nothing we can do, and we're all screwed no matter what we do. That's where I would find some basis of criticism against conspiracy theories. It may contribute to a lot of the political apathy and malaise we see out there.
Again: not really.

Even if a conspiracy theorist thinks that the world is being run by unseen overlords according to some evil plan, this still suggests that if you pay attention enough, you can learn the plan and adapt for it.

You can't do this if misfortune is chaotic and random.

Even the idea that things are unfolding according to an evil plan holds out the hope that an individual can use their own knowledge to control their own personal destiny.
 

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
To a certain sort of mind, the idea that the world is controlled and directed by sinister, shadowy powers beyond our reach is more comforting than the idea or random stuff occurring. There's also the human tendency to blame others for our own failings. Can't find a job, afford a nice car or send the kids to a nice school? Blaming some evil entity is a lot more attractive than acknowledging the problem might be you.

Well, sure, there is a human tendency to blame others for our own failings. I agree with that, although I don't see how it would apply to conspiracy theorists about the JFK assassination. There was definitely a failure to protect the president on that day, which would be a failure of the Secret Service and other law enforcement agencies. But I don't think the average conspiracy theorist would see it as their own personal failure.

It's also easier and more satisfying to blame China for your economic wows than it is to confront the underlying causes.

I agree, just like it's easier to blame Russia for fixing the election rather than confront the underlying causes.

In fact, I see similar tendencies among those who are the most vocal in opposing conspiracy theorists, since they seem to want to go out of their way to dismiss them as "crackpots" and simply attribute it to an abstraction like "mental illness" - rather than look at the underlying causes of how these theories and general mistrust of government come from.
 

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Again: not really.

Even if a conspiracy theorist thinks that the world is being run by unseen overlords according to some evil plan, this still suggests that if you pay attention enough, you can learn the plan and adapt for it.

You can't do this if misfortune is chaotic and random.

Even the idea that things are unfolding according to an evil plan holds out the hope that an individual can use their own knowledge to control their own personal destiny.

I see what you're saying, but the only real "plan" being propagated is that powerful and wealthy people will do whatever it takes to stay that way. That's no great mystery to anyone. There are no "heroes" or "nice guys" at the top.

The "what" and the "why" are easy to figure out, but conspiracy theorists tend to get bogged down in the question of "how" (which can often get convoluted and overly-technical) which is kind of a distraction and a red herring when you think of it. They might also focus on "who benefits," which is sometimes attacked as a logical fallacy on their part.

But the individual can still survive and even thrive, as long as they know which people they shouldn't be messing with. Many years ago, I worked for a company where some of the people in it were, shall we say, "connected." It's not something that anyone "knows" about, but they "know." But one learns that there's certain people you don't mess with, and as long as you stay within those boundaries, you can do alright for yourself.
 

Brickjectivity

Turned to Stone. Now I stretch daily.
Staff member
Premium Member

I would say that every business "conspires" to make money.
Yes, however the idea of 'Stock' was invented to help individuals to compete in the market. You can buy a share of some large business, so you (who may be otherwise poor) can own part of a trade. You don't have to start the business or be clever or anything. You can even go in with someone else to buy a share.
 
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