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About Those Statistics...
- Thread starter Sunstone
- Start date
PoetPhilosopher
Veteran Member
I skimmed the article getting the gist of it. I think that given the current set of facts, one should suspend statements like "US has it worse than anyone" until knowing for sure. Not to mention that even if we go by the raw data, and factor in things like how much testing is done and population, Italy would likely have it worse.
One take-away from the article -- the US has it far worse than is being reported. Whether that's worse than anyone else is -- as you point out -- debatable.
Yazata
Active Member
Given the rapidity of spread in the US and (especially) Italy and Spain, I just find it unbelievable that China's total cases and fatality numbers are as low as reported.
Especially given that they seem to have hushed it up for the first two months. By the time they admitted that they had a problem, the disease almost certainly had spread far beyond Wuhan and Hubei. It wasn't until the middle of January that the Chinese even admitted that the disease could be transmitted from person to person. The first cases seem to have appeared in Wuhan at the end of November. The authorities were insisting for weeks that no medical personnel had fallen ill, while Wuhan physicians were saying that was false. (And were being arrested for telling the truth.)
Then the official line suddenly shifted and Wuhan and its province of 50 million people was locked down. Other Chinese cities followed suit and suddenly streets were empty and everyone was staying home from work and wearing masks. The country's national transport network shut down. Yet the official line from both the Chinese government and the World Health Organization continued to be that Chinese numbers were low and the disease was really no worse than the flu. International travel restrictions were unnecessary. Meanwhile unofficial Chinese social media showed people dropping dead in the streets of Wuhan, pictures of hospitals being mobbed and stories of trucks collecting dead bodies every day and crematoria running day and night. Army roadblocks appeared. So while the official news downplayed it, official actions strongly suggested that they knew that it was far worse than they were letting on. My own guesstimate (in the absence of believable numbers, it can only be a guess) is that all the Chinese case and fatality numbers need to be multiplied by at least ten. Probably more.
Then the official line seems to have changed again. Initially it seems to have been shaped by the CCP's overwhelming desire to avoid panic and maintain social stability. So they hushed the emerging situation up and then downplayed it when that was no longer possible. Then as things deteriorated, their concern changed to mitigating the damage that the anti-virus measures were causing the Chinese economy, getting people back to work and getting the factories going again. So the new line became the claim that it was all effectively over, that no new infections were being reported... which was almost certainly false. Even if China has millions of cases (just a guess), that's just tenths of 1% of China's population, so saving China's economy became a bigger priority. And tellingly, Chinese social media is being much more tightly controlled.
Meanwhile the World Health Organization was swallowing the Chinese line whole and repeating it to the world.
I think that's why Italy, Spain and New York City are experiencing far more rapid person-person transmission along with higher case and fatality numbers per-capita than China ever publicly reported (or are reporting now). It's because the Chinese numbers were never anything other than Bull****. We have seen how only a handful of cases, perhaps unsymptomatic and seemingly healthy, can spread the disease exponentially, in a chain reaction like wildfire.
Especially given that they seem to have hushed it up for the first two months. By the time they admitted that they had a problem, the disease almost certainly had spread far beyond Wuhan and Hubei. It wasn't until the middle of January that the Chinese even admitted that the disease could be transmitted from person to person. The first cases seem to have appeared in Wuhan at the end of November. The authorities were insisting for weeks that no medical personnel had fallen ill, while Wuhan physicians were saying that was false. (And were being arrested for telling the truth.)
Then the official line suddenly shifted and Wuhan and its province of 50 million people was locked down. Other Chinese cities followed suit and suddenly streets were empty and everyone was staying home from work and wearing masks. The country's national transport network shut down. Yet the official line from both the Chinese government and the World Health Organization continued to be that Chinese numbers were low and the disease was really no worse than the flu. International travel restrictions were unnecessary. Meanwhile unofficial Chinese social media showed people dropping dead in the streets of Wuhan, pictures of hospitals being mobbed and stories of trucks collecting dead bodies every day and crematoria running day and night. Army roadblocks appeared. So while the official news downplayed it, official actions strongly suggested that they knew that it was far worse than they were letting on. My own guesstimate (in the absence of believable numbers, it can only be a guess) is that all the Chinese case and fatality numbers need to be multiplied by at least ten. Probably more.
Then the official line seems to have changed again. Initially it seems to have been shaped by the CCP's overwhelming desire to avoid panic and maintain social stability. So they hushed the emerging situation up and then downplayed it when that was no longer possible. Then as things deteriorated, their concern changed to mitigating the damage that the anti-virus measures were causing the Chinese economy, getting people back to work and getting the factories going again. So the new line became the claim that it was all effectively over, that no new infections were being reported... which was almost certainly false. Even if China has millions of cases (just a guess), that's just tenths of 1% of China's population, so saving China's economy became a bigger priority. And tellingly, Chinese social media is being much more tightly controlled.
Meanwhile the World Health Organization was swallowing the Chinese line whole and repeating it to the world.
I think that's why Italy, Spain and New York City are experiencing far more rapid person-person transmission along with higher case and fatality numbers per-capita than China ever publicly reported (or are reporting now). It's because the Chinese numbers were never anything other than Bull****. We have seen how only a handful of cases, perhaps unsymptomatic and seemingly healthy, can spread the disease exponentially, in a chain reaction like wildfire.
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This has been the scenario in most countries -- initial neglect followed by an extreme alarm. The thing is, who has not been taken by surprise?
Some governments have done better than others but basically I agree.
It's like most of the world leaders never forgot the Mothers of Invention song
It can't happen here
It can't happen here
I'm telling you, my dear
That it can't happen here
Because I been checkin' it out, baby
I checked it out a couple a times
But I'm telling you it can't happen here
Oh darling, it's important that you believe me
(Bop bop bop bop)
That it can't happen here
Heyo
Veteran Member
Yep. Knowing a thing or two about statistics is key to understanding the numbers.
On the other hand, the nature of exponential growth makes the exact numbers somewhat irrelevant. Even if you are off by a magnitude, you may only be off by two days.
Well it will be interesting later to analyse all the figures and which country did what in order to make any sense of all this - if we can get accurate figures from all, which is doubtful.
exchemist
Veteran Member
Yes, a very salutary and timely article.
Interesting what he has to say about the numbers from China. It could be the case that Xi has decided, in cold blood, that restarting the Chinese economy while the rest of the world is rocked back on its heels is his big chance to make China No.1, and to hell with the deaths among his citizens. It must be a very appealing strategy for any autocrat with contempt for human life. And yet, it does seem that a number of Chinese doctors are exchanging information with overseas colleagues fairly freely, so I'm not yet convinced that a huge campaign of disinformation must be under way in China. I think the jury is out on that.
Re some of the comments on this thread, I do not buy the notion that false data from China has anything to do with the disastrous experience of Italy or Spain. The modelling by Imperial College has used input ratios from China and from Italy and nobody has so far flagged huge discrepancies that demand explanation. The London experience is not, so far, being shown to be way out of line with expectations derived from these inputs, though obviously it is recognised that none of the data, from anybody, can be taken to be cast-iron.
What I am starting to find - on forums like this and elsewhere - is a different, alarming social phenomenon. This is that segments of US society still seems to be in denial about how these epidemics unfold, partly due to wishful thinking associated with their politics. I was appalled to read that it was only yesterday that Florida, the sunshine state where people go to retire, finally implemented control measures. What the Italy experience seems to show is what happens if you are too slow to implement controls - the thing gathers speed and it takes longer to respond to jamming on the brakes. That is the nature of exponential processes.
I fear the US is in for a bad time, due, not to supposedly false data from China, but to the slowness and lack of national coordination of countermeasures. But instead of realising that, we see people starting to trash the medical experts and spreading convenient homespun fairy stories, while pushing a foreign bogeyman narrative.
stvdv
Veteran Member: I Share (not Debate) my POV
I have been telling this from the beginning. Numbers are way off, and all officials are lying more than is good for us (including WHO)
exchemist
Veteran Member
That is not what the article says, and it is not the conclusion you should draw.
stvdv
Veteran Member: I Share (not Debate) my POV
When people (governments, presidents, WHO) lie to me about numbers which are important to me, then that is the needed conclusion I draw
HonestJoe
Well-Known Member
Interesting but strikes me as a little too aggressive and combative.
The headline is, ironically, misleading. The data itself is perfectly accurate in context (arguably, data can't be wrong, only the context can be). The problem is that people don't listen to the context (and thus don't pass it on). It is correct in that a key issue it that the media and politicians want defined and simple numbers to make big headlines with (though only because that's what we all buy\click on) but I don't think that is typically down to anyone being wilfully misleading, just a general scientific ignorance. That is resolved with knowledge sharing and education, not condemnation and attack.
Note that there is a different issue with statistics and data being intentionally misrepresented to spin up false stories for financial or political purposes but that isn't what were talking about here.
Heyo
Veteran Member
They haven't been lying and the article doesn't say they have. It just says that people who lack reading comprehension and math skills (the vast majority) are confused by the numbers.
exchemist
Veteran Member
They are NOT lying. That's the point of the article. What it points out is that journalists demand numbers - and then run away making misleading headlines, with numbers they have not bothered to understand.
That is not the same thing as governments and the WHO lying. Can you not see the difference?
(P.S. Ninja'ed by @Heyo
)