A Far Scarier Set Of facts

[LuisDantas]

Well then, why dont you lead by example and get off your phone and stop using your car (assuming you have one).

Why are you assuming that he or she does not?

 

[LuisDantas]

To claim that the cause of climate change is due to population growth is an oversimplification, and in either case the solution is not to blame increasing birthrates but to ask how we can limit the negative impact of those births.

Uh, I just don't see why that would be true, even hypothetically.

 

[LuisDantas]

All it would take to erase humanity is for one generation to have no children.

And that is just not going to happen.

 

[LuisDantas]

And there are some countries, like Japan for example, that are having a hard time filling labour requirements because their population is decreasing.

Well, that is very close indeed to the definition of non-problem.

 

[Revoltingest]

Who is advocating communism? I'd like to see a more controlled version of capitalism - one that doesn't have the boom and bust possibilities even at the cost of slower growth.

We don't need what you suggested, ie, getting over the love affair with capitalism.
If the problems are over-consumption, waste, over-population,
environmental degradation, pollution, GW, etc, then each of
those can be addressed without attacking capitalism itself.

 

[Revoltingest]

Two of the three projections here show a peak or decline in world population by 2100.

The population growth rate in 2019 is at about 1.1%. Yes this is an increase in raw population, but the declining rate of that growth supports the lower population projections.

World Population Growth

I don't buy the projections....they're just guesses about the future.
But consider the actual historical growth. It's a record which
cannot assume will abate.

 

[Revoltingest]

Well, that is very close indeed to the definition of non-problem.

The word, "nontroversy", comes to mind.
I see no reason that their population would suffer if it were smaller.
Perhaps their goal is eternal economic growth....an unsustainable model.

 

[sun rise]

But there's a booming supply of immigrants from countries keen on reproduction.
So I'm skeptical that we can assume over-population is over.

It's not over. But the trend as the statistics show is that it will be over at some point.

 

[Revoltingest]

It's not over. But the trend as the statistics show is that it will be over at some point.

"Statistics show", when about the future, is a dubious
claim. Assumptions are varied & hardly gospel truth.
I'd say that relying upon such prognostications to justify
avoiding the problem could mean great loss of natural
environment.

 

[sun rise]

"Statistics show", when about the future, is a dubious
claim. Assumptions are varied & hardly gospel truth.
I'd say that relying upon such prognostications to justify
avoiding the problem could mean great loss of natural
environment.

When a trend continues for quite some time, assuming the trend will continue is far from dubious. Of course trends change but a good bet is that the trend will continue.

And the question of what we do is quite different. Even with the trend lines, the impact on the natural environment will be massive.

 

[Revoltingest]

When a trend continues for quite some time, assuming the trend will continue is far from dubious. /QUOTE]
The historical trend is increasing population.
Tis claims otherwise which are dubious.

 

[metis]

Well, that is very close indeed to the definition of non-problem.

Especially if we allow people to cross borders and work in other countries.

For example, here in Trumpland (USA), we are already running across a shortage of workers in various sectors that used to be filled by "illegals". Here in the Detroit area, we see lots of "Help Wanted" signs, especially with many low-paying small businesses, such as restaurants. One rather upscale restaurant that was recently mentioned on our local news has decided to close for this reason.

 

[LuisDantas]

Especially if we allow people to cross borders and work in other countries.

For example, here in Trumpland (USA), we are already running across a shortage of workers in various sectors that used to be filled by "illegals". Here in the Detroit area, we see lots of "Help Wanted" signs, especially with many low-paying small businesses, such as restaurants. One rather upscale restaurant that was recently mentioned on our local news has decided to close for this reason.

Wait for Brexit.

 

[metis]

Wait for Brexit.

Ya, and I hate to say this but I tend to think the Brits are doing something physically impossible, namely to screw themselves.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

It would take an actual apocalyptic event.

We are collectively hardwired to respond to the real thing actually happening. Then we act.

Of course, we're also hard-wired for intelligence, too, and can use that to do analysis and forward thinking. Let me provide a small example:

In 1918, Toronto built a very long and large bridge crossing a wide ravine, the Prince Edward Viaduct (also known as the Bloor-Danforth Viaduct). What makes this interesting is the city, and the builders, actually built the thing -- at significant extra cost -- to hold a lower deck that could handle rail traffic. It wasn't until 48 years later that a subway system was built along the Bloor-Danforth corridor, and that foresight actually saved the city many, many millions of dollars.

So it seems that we can actually think ahead, and prepare in advance for things that have not yet happened.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

There is also a fact of life called K-extinction.
When the population density of any species reaches a genetically coded value, the population experiences an extinction event.

K-extinctions come in two forms - determinate and indeterminate.
A determinate K-extinction is predictable in form. An indeterminate K-extinction can take a variety of forms.

If you want all the detail, research and maths, read ‘Sociobiology: The New Synthesis’ by Edward O Wilson.

Absolutely LOVE Wilson -- brilliant mind, and a great writer, too.

 

[Howard Is]

Ya, and I hate to say this but I tend to think the Brits are doing something physically impossible, namely to screw themselves.

Its not impossible, just very uncomfortable unless you practice yoga.

 

[Evangelicalhumanist]

Which is why we need to change our love affair with capitalism into something far more realistic.

Odd -- there was a very good debate on the Monk Debates just yesterday that argued that very question, and the pro-capitalism side won (by a very, very narrow margin, but still).

And let us be very clear -- it has been capitalism that has quite literally lifted billions of humans out of poverty and privation. So I don't think we need to get rid of capitalism -- we just need to recognize that it, like all human constructs, is imperfect and has problems. And those problems can be dealt with, but without throwing the baby out with the bathwater.

 

[Howard Is]

Maybe because there are ethnic groups who are too prolific and others who are the exact opposite.

Or rather, sometimes austerity policies produce a demographic crisis...
My high school class had 25 students. Now, after 15 years, only 6 of them have had children. Of the remaining 19, 16 are married but childless...

Australia’s population growth slowed to near zero. So we began importing heaps of Indian, African and Middle Eastern immigrants.
The population of Melbourne went from 4 million to 5 million almost overnight.

We have lots of resource and environmental problems in Australia. Water is a major problem already. as are salination, deforestation and the destruction of the Great Barrier Reef,
But the money-addicts at the ‘top end of town’ believe we need to almost double our population to be a ‘major economic player’. They are clearly insane.

 

[Howard Is]

Perhaps their goal is eternal economic growth.

Isaac Asimov provided this gem of a thought experiment...

Imagine that humans could travel faster than light speed, and had the technology to transform anything into nutrients.

At our current rate of population growth it would take us 3000 years to eat the entire universe.