U.S. default this fall would cost 6 million jobs, wipe out $15 trillion in wealth, study says

Stevicus · Sep 22, 2021

Revoltingest said:
In our form of government, individuals have plans. But
all these individuals differ a great deal. The net effect
is no coherent long term plan.
Contrast this with a country like China, which has a
continuing leadership....no elections to upset the plan.

Still doesn't answer the point, though. We can't go on like this forever. Our government will end up having to print money to pay the debt, which will lead to situations where people have to bring wheelbarrows full of money to the market to buy a loaf of bread. That would not turn out well.

You believe that government could do a better
& cheaper job than defense contractors, eh.
I've worked for government.
I've worked for defense contractors.
I don't share your optimism.

The Chinese spend less than the US government, yet they've managed to build up a rather formidable fighting force. (U.S. vs. China Military Spending: Which Is Bigger? (investopedia.com))

We spend almost three times as much as they do, yet we're still struggling to keep up.

Revoltingest · Sep 22, 2021

Laika said:
Fast forward to 2028 and President A. O. Cortez announces the beginning of the First Four Year Plan in the People's Democratic Republic of America.

You are a wicked wicked man.

Terrywoodenpic · Sep 22, 2021

Revoltingest said:
If government cannot manage even a competitive bidding
process to procure materiel from private contractors, then
how do you expect this same government to assume
responsibility for the whole engineering, design, prototyping,
& manufacturing process?

As for $15,000 toilet seats, I've seen how such things can
arise. Imagine....
Government specs a new widget design.
It's designed, & a prototype widget is made.
Government changes specs.
New protoype widget is made.
Government buys very few widgets.
Overhead costs are distributed over these few.

I'd propose that government consider using more
commercially standard products, & fewer MIL spec
oddities.
I recall being able to buy MIL spec Arizona dust for
testing purposes. The dust had to meet special
stringent standards. It was much spendier than
ordinary dust. But sometimes such things are useful.

What you are saying is that American politicians and their employees are bad at their job.
If a company was run like that it would be bankrupt.
Oh... so it is.

Terrywoodenpic · Sep 22, 2021

Revoltingest said:
You are a wicked wicked man.

Could do worse than asking China to take over the Government for a generation or two.

Revoltingest · Sep 22, 2021

Stevicus said:
Still doesn't answer the point, though. We can't go on like this forever. Our government will end up having to print money to pay the debt, which will lead to situations where people have to bring wheelbarrows full of money to the market to buy a loaf of bread. That would not turn out well.

My answer, one given many times before, would be to
match taxation to spending each year. But there's no
point pushing this because it's politically impossible.

The Chinese spend less than the US government, yet they've managed to build up a rather formidable fighting force. (U.S. vs. China Military Spending: Which Is Bigger? (investopedia.com))

We spend almost three times as much as they do, yet we're still struggling to keep up.

China struggles to keep up too.
But you're not comparing apples to apples. We spend much
on useless wars & policing the world. China doesn't do that.
They spend on building up their military. So of course they
spend less, & get more....but it's not due to government doing
the design & manufacturing. (They have private industries too.)

Our problem is what we spend our money on.
Not on the fact that companies make profits.

Terrywoodenpic · Sep 22, 2021

They also know how to handle corrupt or self serving politicians and business men, their health service is rarely short of spare parts for transplants.

sun rise · Sep 22, 2021

Revoltingest said:
how about
spending less on wasteful things like useless wars?

War is good for business. Just ask defense contractors (but not in public).

Revoltingest said:
You believe that government could do a better
& cheaper job than defense contractors, eh.
I've worked for government.
I've worked for defense contractors.
I don't share your optimism.

Big defense contractors are as bad as big government in my experience. Bureaucracy is behind them both. Bureaucracy, greed, short-term thinking and egoistic chest beating.

Revoltingest · Sep 22, 2021

Terrywoodenpic said:
Could do worse than asking China to take over the Government for a generation or two.

The first thing they'd do is imprison all the sissy men.
China Bans Effeminate Men From TV
Their government isn't all it's cracked up to be...there's
all that oppression. So there's something to be said
for inefficient government...oppression is less efficient.

Revoltingest · Sep 22, 2021

sun rise said:
War is good for business. Just ask defense contractors (but not in public).

Liberals love to claim that. But they (you) present no analysis.
I fail to see how paying people & buying materials to make
products that are taken to another country for destruction
benefits us economically.
Note also that even in peacetime, military spending is huge.
Everything I worked on in flight controls & aerial refueling
was during peacetime.
Moreover, spending on men & materiel for wars saps money
from advancing military capability. Observe that China spends
on preparation....not wasting it on losing wars. Evil though they
be, they're smarter in their strategic thinking.

Big defense contractors are as bad as big government in my experience.

Oh, really?
What experience do you have in defense contracting?

Bureaucracy is behind them both. Bureaucracy, greed, short-term thinking and egoistic chest beating.

In defense industries, the bureaucracy problem is one
imposed by government. Its cost is enormous.
And thinking is longer term than you imagine. Advanced
design was continually on our minds....future tech...future
threats....new markets....upgradability. How do you think
the F-5 lasted so many decades, eh.
Northrop F-5 - Wikipedia

Terrywoodenpic · Sep 22, 2021

Revoltingest said:
The first thing they'd do is imprison all the sissy men.
China Bans Effeminate Men From TV
Their government isn't all it's cracked up to be...there's
all that oppression. So there's something to be said
for inefficient government...oppression is less efficient.

There is still a lot wrong with Chinese society, it is a few years behind the times. but over all is less prejudiced. it is in many ways is still in the 50's... but it will catch up.
It has had a command structure since time immemorial . It did not start with the Communists.

So far about a quarter of their population is industrialised. but in many ways it blows the west out of the water production wise.
It known its own weaknesses and is addressing them . In twenty five years they will be able to match any one. in fifty they will dominate the world at this rate.

At the moment they are doing a considerable amount of reorienting their Business world, and taking down their billionaires a peg or two.
They have no problem with wealth until it thinks it can wag the government dog. Ultimately Everyone works for the State, and is subservient to it, that absolutely includes Billionaires and Students. They just need reminding at times. most of the population understands that, it has always been so.

Revoltingest · Sep 22, 2021

Terrywoodenpic said:
There is still a lot wrong with Chinese society, it is a few years behind the times. but over all is less prejudiced.

Oh, really?
<snicker>
This yang guizi sees a different picture.

it is in many ways is still in the 50's... but it will catch up.
It has had a command structure since time immemorial . It did not start with the Communists.

So far about a quarter of their population is industrialised. but in many ways it blows the west out of the water production wise.
It known its own weaknesses and is addressing them . In twenty five years they will be able to match any one. in fifty they will dominate the world at this rate.

Sure, they out-produce us. But many of the reasons for this
aren't ones we'd want to emulate. I don't need to list them.

At the moment they are doing a considerable amount of reorienting their Business world, and taking down their billionaires a peg or two.
They have no problem with wealth until it thinks it can wag the government dog. Ultimately Everyone works for the State, and is subservient to it, that absolutely includes Billionaires and Students. They just need reminding at times. most of the population understands that, it has always been so.

Subservience to the state is another thing I'd rather
that Ameristan not emulate. Yes, it's an efficient attitude,
but I see disadvantages to such efficiency. Had our
government been so efficient, I might be in prison for
draft evasion.

Alienistic · Sep 22, 2021

Stevicus said:
Eventually, we'll have to either cut spending or raise revenue - or a combination of the two.

One way of cutting spending is by reducing the prices of things our government spends money on, particularly in the areas of healthcare and defense.

Or kill off a bunch of people, or replace higher-wage employees with cheaper-wage employees coming into the US.

ecco · Sep 22, 2021

Stevicus said:
Eventually, we'll have to either cut spending or raise revenue - or a combination of the two.

Did you complain about the massive tax cuts initiated by Trump?

Just askin'.

ecco · Sep 22, 2021

Stevicus said:
Or are we overspending on overpriced goods?

Somewhere in another thread, someone was complaining about all the American jobs that have gone overseas. If all those jobs come back, many, many products would cost a lot more.

Shadow Wolf · Sep 22, 2021

Terrywoodenpic said:
There is still a lot wrong with Chinese society, it is a few years behind the times. but over all is less prejudiced.

Where on Earth did you get that from?
https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/05/05/china-covid-19-discrimination-against-africans
Regional discrimination in China - Wikipedia

When Chinese migrants settle in a new region, local residents can develop social attitudes and prejudgments based on the newcomer's place of birth. If a large volume of new residents relocate from a particular area, regionalism can manifest as sub-ethnic bias and provoke social tension.[1]

Currently, the CCP defines regionalism as adverse action or negative attitudes against another based on their home province. The Chinese state acknowledges this as a detrimental yet pervasive prejudice

China’s Racism Is Wrecking Its Success in Africa
Xinjiang internment camps - Wikipedia
Human rights in Tibet | Free Tibet
Hostile Neighbors: China vs. Japan
Looks to me like it's far more prejudiced than here. At least here we can move around and not expect to face prejudice (unless you're from the South and have a Southern Accent) in a new region of America.

Kooky · Sep 22, 2021

Revoltingest said:
I fail to see how paying people & buying materials to make
products that are taken to another country for destruction
benefits us economically.

Exported goods generate revenue for producers and distributors.

Revoltingest · Sep 22, 2021

Kooky said:
Exported goods generate revenue for producers and distributors.

Which is then taken from us in taxes to pay for the materiel
disposed of overseas. There's no gain....tis all net loss.
And some people die in the process.

I'll bet you subscribe to old story about government creating
jobs by hiring people to break all windows. The window
repair industry would blossom, workers would be employed,
stores would sell glass, & money would change hands.
Everyone would win by your unusual analysis, eh.
And as a non-propertarian, nothing was lost, since no one
should own windows anyway. Liberals....some very strange
views they have.

sun rise · Sep 22, 2021

Terrywoodenpic said:
America has never been prepared to pay off its debts or pay for its lifestyle out of income. i

We had a budget surplus for a short time under Clinton but Republicans eliminated it and now whine louder than a jet engine about raising taxes.

Revoltingest said:
Note also that even in peacetime, military spending is huge.
Everything I worked on in flight controls & aerial refueling
was during peacetime.

Without an occasional war, voices in the US would start saying "let's use the money for domestic issues". This is of course different than what government does in authoritarian and totalitarian countries.

Revoltingest said:
What experience do you have in defense contracting?

I'm comparing my experience in a very large bank compared to my experience working for Social Security for a short time. I saw no difference in the bureaucratic load of useless form filling and top heavy management chains.

Revoltingest · Sep 22, 2021

sun rise said:
We had a budget surplus for a short time under Clinton but Republicans eliminated it and now whine louder than a jet engine about raising taxes.

I recall that. But are you aware that Congress creates the
budget? Guess who controlled that....Newt somebody.
But before you get all puffed up over Democrats as the
true fiscal conservatives, look at some other administrations
of theirs. I fault both parties, despite the risk of the "False
equivalency!" retort.

Without an occasional war, voices in the US would start saying "let's use the money for domestic issues". This is of course different than what government does in authoritarian and totalitarian countries.

Are you advocating occasional war...just for this purpose?

I'm comparing my experience in a very large bank compared to my experience working for Social Security for a short time. I saw no difference in the bureaucratic load of useless form filling and top heavy management chains.

Try working in defense industries.
It's not what you imagine.

Heyo · Sep 22, 2021

Stevicus said:
Well, the very last resort would be for the government to print more money to pay off the debt.

Useful only if you have a printing press - the US doesn't.

U.S. default this fall would cost 6 million jobs, wipe out $15 trillion in wealth, study says

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