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I get vaccine hesitancy, but...

Evangelicalhumanist

"Truth" isn't a thing...
Premium Member
My bad..I did originally misunderstand the article. I have reread the article, this article does not provide an infection fatality rate comparison between the flu and C.O.V.I.D-19. Since more people last year were infected by C.O.V.I.D.-19 than by the flu, a fair comparison of the infection fatality rate can not be determined. We would need to know the number of infections and deaths by influenza last year among persons ages 15 to 24 in order to determine its infection fatality rate in comparison to C.O.V.I.D.-19's estimated 0.006 percent infection fatality rate among persons ages 15 to 24. I can only tell you the information I have for the influenza's infection fatality rate being 0.018 percent among persons ages 18 to 49, which of course, you have rightfully objected to as possibly skewing the numbers higher than what the influenza infection fatality rate might actually be for young adults ages 15 to 24.
Of course, we're also forgetting that those younger folks -- who let's face it get out and socialize more -- while perhaps not dying are certainly spreading the virus around. And possibly spreading it to people older than themselves who might not be all that interested in dying.

And we're only focusing on death, I wonder why. Covid-19 is also leaving a trail of long-term illness behind it. Canada already has a long-haulers support group with nearly 14,000 members!
 

Evangelicalhumanist

"Truth" isn't a thing...
Premium Member
Please, if you find the infection fatality rate for the flu by age among persons between the ages of15-24, do please let us know. If it is lower than C.O.V.I.D.'s 0.006 percent I.F.R. among the age group 15 to 24, then C.O.V.I.D. would be more fatal for the population age group 15 to 24, if the flu has a higher than 0.006 percent I.F.R. among persons between the ages of 15 to 24, then the flu would be deadlier for the population age group of15 to 24.
I'm guessing you're between 15 and 24, since that's the only group you seem to have any interest at all in.
 

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
It is not "EXPERIMENTAL"; the vaccine is a variant on the already tried and tested flu vaccine.

Also if you catch COVID - side affect can = death

It IS EXPERMINTAL but approved for emergency use.

Don't say it isn't otherwise.

Experimental coronavirus vaccine highly effective

It will stop being EXPERMINTAL once it has passed all required FDA testing necessary as with all drugs and medications.

Until then, it's classified as EXPERMINTAL.

Source NIH....

Experimental coronavirus vaccine highly effective


Again for the umpteenth time most people will not die from Covid. That's a known fact.


It does however pose a danger to those who are high risk and suspectable which is why it's recommended for those people to take the vaccine.
 
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Dave Watchman

Active Member
Regarding the UK more generally there is nothing "spooky" going on.

It's spooky to me because what's happening there will probably spread everywhere at some point.

There's another forum where they are calculating the percentages and analyzing the columns.

aMqtwce.jpeg

https://assets.publishing.service.g...ants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_15.pdf (p. 15)

Just eyeballing the death collumn, where would I rather find myself?

Out of 19,573 unvaccinated with 23 deaths?

Out of 5,393 vaccinated with one dose and 7 deaths?

Or one of the 1,785 with both doses and 12 deaths?

It looks like the people with both doses of vaccine are doing worse.

There was a quote from a Sky News article back a while ago that said;

"Given the high vaccine uptake observed so far, most deaths are predicted to occur in vaccinated individuals, because of imperfect vaccine efficacy," the report said.

This was May 13:

A third coronavirus wave could happen in late summer or autumn if the next steps out of lockdown continue as planned, scientists advising the government warned.

But, if variants of concern emerge that are comparable to the Kent variant - with similar transmissibility and with a much higher ability to evade immunity from vaccines - a third wave could be "substantially larger", both in hospital admissions and deaths - than the spike in the winter of 2021, the researchers said.

"Given the high vaccine uptake observed so far, most deaths are predicted to occur in vaccinated individuals, because of imperfect vaccine efficacy," the report said.

Coronavirus: Third UK wave could occur in late summer if reopening continues, scientists warn

It seemed counter intuitive. Why would more deaths be in the fully vaccinated column?

Because of imperfect vaccine efficacy?

Do a google on ADE. It happened with dengue. If this chart is an early indication of it's occurrence with the Delta Variant's interaction with our Covid Vaccines, it would give me a cause for pause. It would mean big trouble for the world. More than "spooky".

Let me just wait and see.

I'm not taking medical advice from a politician (Ford or Trudeau).

But I agree, this chart is not a large enough sample containing any detail.

Maybe the 1,785 were all from an old folks home, maybe the 19,573 were all school age kids. But I doubt it.
 
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exchemist

Veteran Member
It's spooky to me because what's happening there will probably spread everywhere at some point.

There's another forum where they are calculating the percentages and analyzing the columns.

aMqtwce.jpeg


Just eyeballing the death collumn, where would I rather find myself?

Out of 19,573 unvaccinated with 23 deaths?

Out of 5,393 vaccinated with one dose and 7 deaths?

Or one of the 1,785 with both doses and 12 deaths?

It looks like the people with both doses of vaccine are doing worse.

There was a quote from a Sky News article back a while ago that said;



This was May 13:

A third coronavirus wave could happen in late summer or autumn if the next steps out of lockdown continue as planned, scientists advising the government warned.

But, if variants of concern emerge that are comparable to the Kent variant - with similar transmissibility and with a much higher ability to evade immunity from vaccines - a third wave could be "substantially larger", both in hospital admissions and deaths - than the spike in the winter of 2021, the researchers said.

"Given the high vaccine uptake observed so far, most deaths are predicted to occur in vaccinated individuals, because of imperfect vaccine efficacy," the report said.

Coronavirus: Third UK wave could occur in late summer if reopening continues, scientists warn

It seemed counter intuitive. Why would more deaths be in the fully vaccinated column?

Because of imperfect vaccine efficacy?

Do a google on ADE. It happened with dengue. If this chart is an early indication of it's occurrence with the Delta Variant's interaction with our Covid Vaccines, it would give me a cause for pause. It would mean big trouble for the world. More than "spooky".

Let me just wait and see.

I'm not taking medical advice from a politician (Ford or Trudeau).

But I agree, this chart is not a large enough sample containing any detail.

Maybe the 1,785 were all from an old folks home, maybe the 19,573 were all school age kids. But I doubt it.
That's exactly why you should not try to overinterpret data from a table when you do understand the background to it. The deaths are only a handful, possibly not statistically significant, and in any case there are double the number of deaths from unvaccinated people.

ADE is irrelevant. If ADE from vaccines were an issue, you would expect to see a lot more hospitalisations from vaccinated people. The data show the opposite.

But really there is a limit to what we can get out of discussing one table, out of context, from a long and highly technical document that neither of us has read and which you admit you do not understand.

I sense that you are hunting high and low for reasons to justify not getting vaccinated. But there is no justification.
 

Altfish

Veteran Member
It IS EXPERMINTAL but approved for emergency use.

Don't say it isn't otherwise.

Experimental coronavirus vaccine highly effective

It will stop being EXPERMINTAL once it has passed all required FDA testing necessary as with all drugs and medications.

Until then, it's classified as EXPERMINTAL.

Source NIH....

Experimental coronavirus vaccine highly effective


Again for the umpteenth time most people will not die from Covid. That's a known fact.


It does however pose a danger to those who are high risk and suspectable which is why it's recommended for those people to take the vaccine.
There is a huge difference between the emotional word "EXPERIMENTAL" and a variant on an existing drug.
The new Alzheimer's drug is experimental, the Covid jab is not.
 

Dave Watchman

Active Member
I'm not taking medical advice from a politician (Ford or Trudeau).

This video says Elton John took the Swine Flu shot.


Mary Tyler Moore looked pretty.

We are a vapor.

"Yet you do not know what tomorrow will bring. What is your life? For you are a mist that appears for a little time and then vanishes.​
 

Evangelicalhumanist

"Truth" isn't a thing...
Premium Member
It IS EXPERMINTAL but approved for emergency use.

Don't say it isn't otherwise.

Experimental coronavirus vaccine highly effective

It will stop being EXPERMINTAL once it has passed all required FDA testing necessary as with all drugs and medications.

Until then, it's classified as EXPERMINTAL.

Source NIH....

Experimental coronavirus vaccine highly effective


Again for the umpteenth time most people will not die from Covid. That's a known fact.


It does however pose a danger to those who are high risk and suspectable which is why it's recommended for those people to take the vaccine.
You have forgotten that it is recommended for more than just the susceptible. Some bozo in the CDC thought "hey, why don't we stop this from spreading." I wish you'd consider that.
 

Dave Watchman

Active Member
But really there is a limit to what we can get out of discussing one table, out of context, from a long and highly technical document that neither of us has read and which you admit you do not understand.

I agree. This data is from Feb 1. We should know enough to make an informed decision at the next sample.

I sense that you are hunting high and low for reasons to justify not getting vaccinated. But there is no justification.

I see that there is more than enough justification. More than enough evidence now to err on the side of caution.

ADE is irrelevant. If ADE from vaccines were an issue, you would expect to see a lot more hospitalisations from vaccinated people. The data show the opposite.

The data from the chart is telling me to wait for more information before getting the jab.

That's exactly why you should not try to overinterpret data from a table when you do understand the background to it. The deaths are only a handful, possibly not statistically significant, and in any case there are double the number of deaths from unvaccinated people.

The deaths seem to be pointing to the development of ADE. I hope that it's not.

If the vaccines were working as advertised, there wouldn't be such a high percentage of deaths in the 2nd dose column.

And the UK wouldn't be extending their lockdown now.

What if they weren't locked down now?

What do you think it would be like?

I always keep my eye on the UK and Russia.

Scientists issue warning that UK could see 100,000 daily Covid cases by July

June 13,2021

Scientists have issued a stark warning that the Covid-19 variant known as Delta is shaping up to cause devastation in the UK as soon as July.

It’s predicted that by next month the country could see a surge of 100,000 daily Covid-19 cases due to the super-spreading variant, in a grim reminder to the world of the horrors it can cause.

First detected in India last October, the Delta variant is much more transmissible, deadlier and more resistant to vaccines. It has now spread to at least 62 countries, including here in Australia.

“In a month you’ll be up to 100,000 new cases a day,” Professor Anthony Costello, a member of the UK’s Independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies and London’s University College (UCL), told The Mirror of the battle the UK is facing

Scientists warn that the UK faces 100,000 daily Covid cases by July
 

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
You have forgotten that it is recommended for more than just the susceptible. Some bozo in the CDC thought "hey, why don't we stop this from spreading." I wish you'd consider that.
I'm not saying we shouldn't. Stopping a spread of anything harmful is a common sense move.

But at the same time, taking plunges at a remedy requires an assessment of risk vs benefit, which may prove to be a bit more complex when weighing in a decision to proceed or not based on what transpires with those who do. The good and the bad ought to be known.

I'm sure over time as more successes manifest, more will do the same in natural order increasing that success.

Just requires patience. That's all.
 

Unveiled Artist

Veteran Member
It IS EXPERMINTAL but approved for emergency use.

Don't say it isn't otherwise.

Experimental coronavirus vaccine highly effective

It will stop being EXPERMINTAL once it has passed all required FDA testing necessary as with all drugs and medications.

Until then, it's classified as EXPERMINTAL.

Source NIH....

Experimental coronavirus vaccine highly effective


Again for the umpteenth time most people will not die from Covid. That's a known fact.


It does however pose a danger to those who are high risk and suspectable which is why it's recommended for those people to take the vaccine.

Here we go: Experimental COVID Shots Cannot Be Mandated March 9, 2021 Updated

"ORLANDO, FL -- Federal law provides that at least until a vaccine is fully approved by the FDA, individuals must have the option to accept or decline the experimental drug."

I'll have to read the rest later, but it is experimental.

My question would be to other folks, why do you guys argue against that?

On March 27, 2020, the Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary declared that circumstances exist justifying the authorization of emergency use (EUA) of drugs and biological products for COVID-19. That means people must be told the risks and benefits, and they have the right to decline a medication that is not fully licensed. The same section of the Federal Food, Drug, and Cosmetic Act that authorizes the FDA to grant EUA also requires the secretary of Health and Human Services to “ensure that individuals to whom the product is administered are informed … of the option to accept or refuse administration of the product.”

All of the COVID-19 mRNA injections (Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna) or vaccines (Johnson & Johnson and Astra Zeneca) have received only EAU authorization and not full FDA approval.

When the FDA grants EUA for a vaccine, many questions about the product cannot be answered because the testing data is unavailable. Therefore, when Congress granted the authority to issue EUAs, it mandated that individuals must be allowed to decide for themselves whether to receive an EUA product. The FDA and Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) considered this fundamental requirement of choice important enough that even during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, they reinforced that policy decision when issuing their guidance related to the experimental “vaccines.”

Dr. Amanda Cohn, executive secretary of the CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices, was asked if COVID-19 vaccination can be required. Dr. Cohn responded that under an EUA, “vaccines are not allowed to be mandatory. So, early in this vaccination phase, individuals will have to be consented [sic] and they won’t be able to be mandatory.”

The EUAs for both the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna mRNA experimental injections and any other EUA vaccine require fact sheets to be given to vaccination providers and recipients. These fact sheets make clear that getting the vaccine is optional. For example, the one for recipients states, “It is your choice to receive or not receive the COVID-19 vaccine,” and if “you decide to not receive it, it will not change your standard of medical care.”

Here's other info, but it's dated 2020.

Experimental coronavirus vaccine is safe and produces immune response

It's weird much of the sites don't use the word experimental, but by definition, it is; they are still testing and seeing what's the nature of the vaccine and even addressing reported symptoms of the vaccine (to those resources that aren't undermining the seriousness of the side-effects). They are testing the experimental vaccine on children now.
 
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Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
It's spooky to me because what's happening there will probably spread everywhere at some point.

There's another forum where they are calculating the percentages and analyzing the columns.

aMqtwce.jpeg


Just eyeballing the death collumn, where would I rather find myself?

Out of 19,573 unvaccinated with 23 deaths?

Out of 5,393 vaccinated with one dose and 7 deaths?

Or one of the 1,785 with both doses and 12 deaths?

It looks like the people with both doses of vaccine are doing worse.

There was a quote from a Sky News article back a while ago that said;



This was May 13:

A third coronavirus wave could happen in late summer or autumn if the next steps out of lockdown continue as planned, scientists advising the government warned.

But, if variants of concern emerge that are comparable to the Kent variant - with similar transmissibility and with a much higher ability to evade immunity from vaccines - a third wave could be "substantially larger", both in hospital admissions and deaths - than the spike in the winter of 2021, the researchers said.

"Given the high vaccine uptake observed so far, most deaths are predicted to occur in vaccinated individuals, because of imperfect vaccine efficacy," the report said.

Coronavirus: Third UK wave could occur in late summer if reopening continues, scientists warn

It seemed counter intuitive. Why would more deaths be in the fully vaccinated column?

Because of imperfect vaccine efficacy?

Do a google on ADE. It happened with dengue. If this chart is an early indication of it's occurrence with the Delta Variant's interaction with our Covid Vaccines, it would give me a cause for pause. It would mean big trouble for the world. More than "spooky".

Let me just wait and see.

I'm not taking medical advice from a politician (Ford or Trudeau).

But I agree, this chart is not a large enough sample containing any detail.

Maybe the 1,785 were all from an old folks home, maybe the 19,573 were all school age kids. But I doubt it.
I think there are a lot of deaths because of an aging baby boomer population. Its why I rely on metrics and not static data on a per capita basis.

That's where the actual truth of the matter applies.
 

exchemist

Veteran Member
I agree. This data is from Feb 1. We should know enough to make an informed decision at the next sample.



I see that there is more than enough justification. More than enough evidence now to err on the side of caution.



The data from the chart is telling me to wait for more information before getting the jab.



The deaths seem to be pointing to the development of ADE. I hope that it's not.

If the vaccines were working as advertised, there wouldn't be such a high percentage of deaths in the 2nd dose column.

And the UK wouldn't be extending their lockdown now.

What if they weren't locked down now?

What do you think it would be like?

I always keep my eye on the UK and Russia.

Scientists issue warning that UK could see 100,000 daily Covid cases by July

June 13,2021

Scientists have issued a stark warning that the Covid-19 variant known as Delta is shaping up to cause devastation in the UK as soon as July.

It’s predicted that by next month the country could see a surge of 100,000 daily Covid-19 cases due to the super-spreading variant, in a grim reminder to the world of the horrors it can cause.

First detected in India last October, the Delta variant is much more transmissible, deadlier and more resistant to vaccines. It has now spread to at least 62 countries, including here in Australia.

“In a month you’ll be up to 100,000 new cases a day,” Professor Anthony Costello, a member of the UK’s Independent Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies and London’s University College (UCL), told The Mirror of the battle the UK is facing

Scientists warn that the UK faces 100,000 daily Covid cases by July
You don't know anything about ADE and are in no position to make statements like that. I bet you only found out what ADE is a few weeks ago, from some anti-vaxxer website, or YouTube video.:D Same with that UK paper you quoted: you didn't dig that out and you've no idea what it signifies. ADE if it were ever to arise for SARS-CoV-2, would be far more likely to come from weak natural immunity following infection than from one of these vaccines, which create a far more robust immune response at multiple levels.

My understanding is the figure of 100,000 new cases per day is an extrapolation of the exponential that could occur if all restrictions are lifted on 21st June. Nobody now thinks that will go ahead.
 

Dave Watchman

Active Member
I think there are a lot of deaths because of an aging baby boomer population. Its why I rely on metrics and not static data on a per capita basis.

That's where the actual truth of the matter applies.

You can think it, but we can't know it yet.

They would need to make an age column, an "aging baby boomer column".

Yesterday and last night was the first time I really started getting stressed over the vaccine issue and the development of ADE. Not just the chart, but others reaction to it. Many Doctor's Twitter feeds were drawing attention to the chart. And take into context the other UK news. It was not optimistic. And the media is not even addressing the data from that chart. If this chart is the first indication of ADE, we, the world, are in serious trouble.

I would keep watching the UK as they were the first to really go gung ho on the vaccines at Christmas time.

Somebody posted text on a forum like "the UK may need to stay locked down until spring 2022. I thought it was joke.

If the UK Government is telling the media: "'that a delay will leave a very short window to open up,' with further push-backs leading to a full reopening only next spring, then somebody over there must have the detail of who populated those columns in the chart. I'm watching everything, including their actions.

UK faces 100,000 cases EVERY DAY by July as Indian Covid variant drives up infections by more than a third over last week to 7,738 and Boris Johnson is warned by ministers lockdown rules will remain until next spring
  • The PM all-but confirmed Freedom Day would be pushed back from June 20 to July 19 on Saturday
  • Cases continued to rise by more than a third over last week to 7,738 - second-highest daily figure since Feb.
  • Independent SAGE's Anthony Costello, of University College London, said the true daily infection figure was likely more than double the 8,000 recorded in tests
  • He said: 'In a month you'll be up to 100,000 new cases a day. If the Government takes a gamble and lets rip like Tory backbenchers want, the NHS will be overloaded. Let's wait. Let's stay as we are'
  • Tory ministers have warned Mr Johnson that a delay will leave a 'very short window to open up,' with further push-backs leading to a full reopening only next spring - after winter pressures on the NHS cease
 

Evangelicalhumanist

"Truth" isn't a thing...
Premium Member

"Given the high vaccine uptake observed so far, most deaths are predicted to occur in vaccinated individuals, because of imperfect vaccine efficacy," the report said.

Coronavirus: Third UK wave could occur in late summer if reopening continues, scientists warn

It seemed counter intuitive. Why would more deaths be in the fully vaccinated column?
Remember, "given the high vaccine uptake," which means lots of people are getting vacccinated. If you have a population of 80% vaccinated, 20% not, and "imperfect efficacy," then sure you may have more deaths among the larger group -- simply because it's a larger group. But it will not be in the same proportion. Later in the same article that you cite, Imperial College's Professor Neil Ferguson said current UK COVID trends "are looking very positive, and support the decision to substantially relax restrictions". And he also said vaccines have played a major role in reducing hospital admissions and deaths, as well as significantly reducing transmission.

And that's nothing to be sneezed at.
 

Dave Watchman

Active Member
You don't know anything about ADE and are in no position to make statements like that. I bet you only found out what ADE is a few weeks ago, from some anti-vaxxer website, or YouTube video.:D

It's fairly easy actually.

Elementary my Dear Watson.

Even with me being on my side of the pond.

Same with that UK paper you quoted: you didn't dig that out and you've no idea what it signifies. ADE if it were ever to arise for SARS-CoV-2, would be far more likely to come from weak natural immunity following infection than from one of these vaccines, which create a far more robust immune response at multiple levels.

That's not the way it worked for 800,000 Filipino kids in 2016 and a same style of vaccine made for dengue.

gettyimages-921966814_custom-3f17f93a66253d5bde5d53213373194981c07101-s1200.jpg


Sometimes the mRNA Vaccine backfires and goes sideways and causes a person's immune system to "drop it's shields'. It transports the pathogen directly into the cell, Trogan horse style.

It happened with a vaccine made for chickens.

And it turned dengue fever into dengue hemorrhagic fever in the Filipino kids.

I just typed that from memory.

If ADE were to appear in Covid, we would see it in an example where higher numbers of the vaccinated would succumb to the illness. And the unvaccinated would show lower numbers of an impact. Like how that chart is showing now.

I still think that we'll know more in two weeks.

You can google for more.
 

Suave

Simulated character
The last article took the flu death rates from normal years before covid, so yes the Covid is quite a bit more likely to kill you than the flu if you're 15-24 and any age older than that too.

The original influenza infection fatality rate I had reported for age group 18 to 49 was errantly overstated by a factor of 10.
I concede that I was wrong in my assertion that the flu is more lethal to young adults than how lethal C.O.V.I.D-19 is to them, and you are correct that C.O.V.I.D.-19 is more likely than the flu to kill somebody age 15 to 24.
 
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