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Cuomo 'we all failed' at making coronavirus projections

exchemist

exchemist

Veteran Member
esmith said:
Cuomo admits 'we all failed' at making coronavirus projections

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo admitted Monday that coronavirus projections from experts were all wrong -- and he's getting out of the business of speculating because of it.
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Yes, that's the difficulty with eˣ. A small difference at the start leads to an accelerating divergence at higher values. However this does not make modelling a waste of time, as it gives planners an idea of the range of outcomes they need to be prepared for. Simply exposing politicians to the way an exponential function grows is valuable enough in itself.

From what I understand, the criticism of many political responses is twofold. First, that many of them did not shut down hard enough and early enough. Because of the nature of exponentials, a week's delay can easily more than double the number of cases. Second, that many of them disregarded the consistent advice from the WHO to "test, test, test". The countries that have managed well have been those that followed this advice.

In the USA, early and draconian action was not of course helped by the political climate created by the president, who did his best to make it a party political issue from the outset and has steadfastly refused to show any leadership or support whatsoever to those faced with the difficult decisions.
 
PureX

PureX

Veteran Member
100539349_2656508331285974_7379972258095169536_n-1.jpg
 
9-10ths_Penguin

9-10ths_Penguin

1/10 Subway Stalinist
Premium Member
esmith said:
Cuomo admits 'we all failed' at making coronavirus projections

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo admitted Monday that coronavirus projections from experts were all wrong -- and he's getting out of the business of speculating because of it.
Click to expand...
One projection that doesn't seem to be wrong so far:

Top U.S. infectious diseases expert Anthony Fauci said the country will have “millions” of coronavirus cases and that as many as 200,000 people could die as a result[.]
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Fauci Predicts Up To 200,000 Deaths And 'Millions' Infected In U.S.

That was late March. I remember when that came out: conservatives were saying "no, no - not 200,000 deaths. 60,000 tops. He's fearmongering."
 
tytlyf

tytlyf

Not Religious
Projections change daily, it's called math. What remains the same is the prediction that 1% of people will die who get the virus.
I bet the projections are increasing today. Which makes sense since it changes daily....more RW gossip nonsense. The anti-intellectuals are poking the bear.
 
PureX

PureX

Veteran Member
Revoltingest said:
Do you believe that if Trump didn't golf
things would be better?
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I believe that a president should be setting an example by his actions during a crisis. Like Gov. Cuomo. His daily briefings have become a staple for people in the whole eastern U.S. because they are detailed, honest, informative, and help people feel like someone with an F'n brain is in charge.
 
Revoltingest

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
PureX said:
I believe that a president should be setting an example by his actions during a crisis. Like Gov. Cuomo. His daily briefings have become a staple for people in the whole eastern U.S. because they are detailed, honest, informative, and help people feel like someone with an F'n brain is in charge.
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Golfing is perhaps a good example, if done safely, eg, keeping social distance.
We still need to exercise, recreate, & not continuously bemoan the plague.
I say that it was fine for Obama to play golf right after declaring the H1N1 emergency.
And I hate golf.
 
Twilight Hue

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
Twilight Hue

Twilight Hue

Twilight, not bright nor dark, good nor bad.
PureX said:
I believe that a president should be setting an example by his actions during a crisis. Like Gov. Cuomo. His daily briefings have become a staple for people in the whole eastern U.S. because they are detailed, honest, informative, and help people feel like someone with an F'n brain is in charge.
Click to expand...
Cuomo is an opportunist and an ambitionist. This puts him at center stage because he doesn't do things like this unless he feels it benefits his political career in some major way.

His management so far has been abysmal in NY.
 
Kangaroo Feathers

Kangaroo Feathers

Yea, it is written in the Book of Cyril...
PureX said:
I believe that a president should be setting an example by his actions during a crisis. Like Gov. Cuomo. His daily briefings have become a staple for people in the whole eastern U.S. because they are detailed, honest, informative, and help people feel like someone with an F'n brain is in charge.
Click to expand...
Nice of trump to set an example by taking a medicine shown to INCREASE mortality rates. Now if only he's set an example by Injecting disinfectant
 
Revoltingest

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
PureX

PureX

Veteran Member
I have friends living in New York City who were not Cuomo fans, but who give him high marks for how he has been handling the covid crisis. I have watched some of his daily briefings and did not hear him prognosticating in any way about how the epidemic was going to play out. What he did talk about was that if "X" happens, their plan is to do this, this, and this, and if "Y" happens their plane is to do that, that, and that. And every day he gave all the current numbers as they became available. And the press were asking very specific questions about where the numbers came from and what they mean. He was well informed, articulate, calm, patient, and helpful.

I smell the reek of ignorance and partisanship in many of the comments here, and in the overall intent of this thread, from people who I doubt very much has watched even one of his briefings.
 
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