Germany’s success in responding to the coronavirus pandemic

To what extent has Germany’s capacity to conduct widespread testing lead to much better containment of coronavirus than some of its neighbours?

Late last year — long before most people had heard of the new coronavirus now sweeping the globe — scientists in Germany sprang into action to develop a test for the virus causing an unusual respiratory disease in central China.

They had one by mid-January — and labs around the country were ready to start using it just weeks later, around the same time that Europe's most populous country registered its first case.

“It was clear that if the epidemic swept over here from China, then we had to start testing," said Hendrik Borucki, a spokesman for Bioscientia Healthcare, which operates 19 labs in Germany.

That quick work stands in stark contrast to delaysand missteps in other countries. Coupled with Germany's large number of intensive care beds and its early social distancing measures, it could explain one of the most interesting puzzles of the COVID-19 pandemic: Why people with the virus in Germany currently appear to be dying at much lower rates than in neighboring countries.

The numbers are remarkable: As confirmed cases in Germany passed 71,000 the death toll Wednesday was 775, according to a tally kept by Johns Hopkins University. In contrast, Italy has reported almost 106,000 infections and more than 12,400 deaths, while Spain has more than 96,000 cases, with more than 8,400 deaths.

France has four times as many virus deaths as Germany and Britain has twice as many, even though both countries have fewer reported infections.

There may be many factors at play, but experts said early on that fast and widespread testing gave Germany an edge.

“The reason why we in Germany have so few deaths at the moment compared to the number of infected can be largely explained by the fact that we are doing an extremely large number of lab diagnoses," said virologist Dr. Christian Drosten, whose team developed the first test for the new virus at Berlin's Charité hospital — established over 300 years ago to treat plague victims.

He estimated that Germany is now capable of conducting up to 500,000 tests a week.

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/worl...ermany-scores-early-against-virus/ar-BB120lba

The news from Germany is heartening. Thanks for passing that along, Adrian. The importance of adequate testing seems to be a common theme coming out of several countries. Not just Germany, but also South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong.

By all reliable accounts, the United States is still deficient in testing -- even at this late date. However, I hear we might be catching up at last.

Sunstone said:

The news from Germany is heartening. Thanks for passing that along, Adrian. The importance of adequate testing seems to be a common theme coming out of several countries. Not just Germany, but also South Korea, Singapore, and Hong Kong.

By all reliable accounts, the United States is still deficient in testing -- even at this late date. However, I hear we might be catching up at last.

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I'm taking the opportunity to raise awareness about the necessary steps that any country can and should take to contain coronavirus. Unfortunately having severe restrictions is necessary for your country and mine until we have containment. Without adequate testing we have no idea whatsoever about the extent of the spread of the virus. In New Zealand we are now escalating our testing to include anyone with signs of a lower respiratory tract infection such as cough, shortness of breath or a fever. Accompanied by testing we must have thorough contact tracing and measures to isolate those who are suspected of having infection though exposure.

I agree we have some Asian countries that are good examples of containment. Countries such as Italy and Spain appear to have left it late to put in place restrictions and so there was already widespread community infection by the time these measures were implemented. Now their health systems are utterly overwhelmed. Countries such as France, the UK and USA appear to be following a similar trajectory. It becomes very hard to focus on basic public health measures when health systems are in crisis. Its good the USA is now going to extend its lock-down period to the end of April and projected figures for death rates are extremely concerning reflecting a country that has been slow to respond. I'm sure with restrictions and widespread testing and contact tracing containment can be achieved though.

New Zealand went into lock down one week ago. We had our first death a few days ago and have over 500 infected. With about 60 new cases a day, still mostly from overseas travellers or close contact with a known case, only 1% is from community transmission. However we don't know that for certain without widespread aggressive testing. We have a very real chance of containing the spread of the disease and saving thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of lives. I'm excited to be part of that.

adrian009 said:

To what extent has Germany’s capacity to conduct widespread testing lead to much better containment of coronavirus than some of its neighbours?

Late last year — long before most people had heard of the new coronavirus now sweeping the globe — scientists in Germany sprang into action to develop a test for the virus causing an unusual respiratory disease in central China.

They had one by mid-January — and labs around the country were ready to start using it just weeks later, around the same time that Europe's most populous country registered its first case.

“It was clear that if the epidemic swept over here from China, then we had to start testing," said Hendrik Borucki, a spokesman for Bioscientia Healthcare, which operates 19 labs in Germany.

That quick work stands in stark contrast to delaysand missteps in other countries. Coupled with Germany's large number of intensive care beds and its early social distancing measures, it could explain one of the most interesting puzzles of the COVID-19 pandemic: Why people with the virus in Germany currently appear to be dying at much lower rates than in neighboring countries.

The numbers are remarkable: As confirmed cases in Germany passed 71,000 the death toll Wednesday was 775, according to a tally kept by Johns Hopkins University. In contrast, Italy has reported almost 106,000 infections and more than 12,400 deaths, while Spain has more than 96,000 cases, with more than 8,400 deaths.

France has four times as many virus deaths as Germany and Britain has twice as many, even though both countries have fewer reported infections.

There may be many factors at play, but experts said early on that fast and widespread testing gave Germany an edge.

“The reason why we in Germany have so few deaths at the moment compared to the number of infected can be largely explained by the fact that we are doing an extremely large number of lab diagnoses," said virologist Dr. Christian Drosten, whose team developed the first test for the new virus at Berlin's Charité hospital — established over 300 years ago to treat plague victims.

He estimated that Germany is now capable of conducting up to 500,000 tests a week.

Mass testing, empty ICUs: Germany scores early against virus

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What this is saying is that the death rate in Germany is probably no different from what it is in other countries whose health services are able to keep up.

Since Germany is better at testing, they are detecting and reporting a higher proportion of the infections taking place in the population, that's all. So that means that, when you look at stats giving you the death rate as a percentage of the confirmed cases, Germany's data looks better. (In the UK for example, the "confirmed cases" are only those serious enough to be sent to hospital, probably 5% of the total number infected in the population.)

Let's avoid a myth developing that Germany is somehow uniquely better at preventing people dying from Covid-19. This data does not support that notion. It may be that they are better at reducing the transmission rate, but for that we'd need to see the doubling interval for hospital admissions in Germany, I think.

My cousin and his wife live in Berlin, from talking to them I would consider their attitude as over confident, they are taking much more risks than I am, and have the foolish idea that Germany's health system is so superior that it will somehow protect them from the virus, only time will tell.

exchemist said:

What this is saying is that the death rate in Germany is probably no different from what it is in other countries whose health services are able to keep up.

Since Germany is better at testing, they are detecting and reporting a higher proportion of the infections taking place in the population, that's all. So that means that, when you look at stats giving you the death rate as a percentage of the confirmed cases, Germany's data looks better. (In the UK for example, the "confirmed cases" are only those serious enough to be sent to hospital, probably 5% of the total number infected in the population.)

Let's avoid a myth developing that Germany is somehow uniquely better at preventing people dying from Covid-19. This data does not support that notion. It may be that they are better at reducing the transmission rate, but for that we'd need to see the doubling interval for hospital admissions in Germany, I think.

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I agree the death date in Germany is probably not too much different from countries with similar proportions of those infected in other countries with developed health systems. I make that distinction because ICU care and the use of ventilators saves lives. In counties such as Spain and Italy the capacity to provide intensive care is not sufficient to meet demand. When health care systems are overwhelmed then their capacity to treat all the other illnesses such as acute coronary syndrome and bacterial infections is reduced and so more people die from causes other than coronavirus. However, your point is an important one. Countries that are only testing seriously ill people in hospitals are only measuring the tip of the iceberg when it comes to community spread (perhaps 5% as you say).

However, the article, its about being able to contain the spread of the disease and therefore reducing deaths by having less people infected.

Lyndon said:

My cousin and his wife live in Berlin, from talking to them I would consider their attitude as over confident, they are taking much more risks than I am, and have the foolish idea that Germany's health system is so superior that it will somehow protect them from the virus, only time will tell.

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I'm not advocating Germany's health system is better than that of the USA. It does appear Germany have done a much better at responding to the coronavirus pandemic though.

adrian009 said:

To what extent has Germany’s capacity to conduct widespread testing lead to much better containment of coronavirus than some of its neighbours?

Late last year — long before most people had heard of the new coronavirus now sweeping the globe — scientists in Germany sprang into action to develop a test for the virus causing an unusual respiratory disease in central China.

They had one by mid-January — and labs around the country were ready to start using it just weeks later, around the same time that Europe's most populous country registered its first case.

“It was clear that if the epidemic swept over here from China, then we had to start testing," said Hendrik Borucki, a spokesman for Bioscientia Healthcare, which operates 19 labs in Germany.

That quick work stands in stark contrast to delaysand missteps in other countries. Coupled with Germany's large number of intensive care beds and its early social distancing measures, it could explain one of the most interesting puzzles of the COVID-19 pandemic: Why people with the virus in Germany currently appear to be dying at much lower rates than in neighboring countries.

The numbers are remarkable: As confirmed cases in Germany passed 71,000 the death toll Wednesday was 775, according to a tally kept by Johns Hopkins University. In contrast, Italy has reported almost 106,000 infections and more than 12,400 deaths, while Spain has more than 96,000 cases, with more than 8,400 deaths.

France has four times as many virus deaths as Germany and Britain has twice as many, even though both countries have fewer reported infections.

There may be many factors at play, but experts said early on that fast and widespread testing gave Germany an edge.

“The reason why we in Germany have so few deaths at the moment compared to the number of infected can be largely explained by the fact that we are doing an extremely large number of lab diagnoses," said virologist Dr. Christian Drosten, whose team developed the first test for the new virus at Berlin's Charité hospital — established over 300 years ago to treat plague victims.

He estimated that Germany is now capable of conducting up to 500,000 tests a week.

Mass testing, empty ICUs: Germany scores early against virus

Click to expand...

Ya know....that's not very surprising. I once worked for a German
company (Knorr Bremse). They had a kind of single mindedness
that worked for them.....if something needed doing, they did it.
I can imagine an entire country comprising people like that.

adrian009 said:

I'm not advocating Germany's health system is better than that of the USA. It does appear Germany have done a much better at responding to the coronavirus pandemic though.

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Of course Germany has a better health system than the USA, but that is still not protection enough if you are only loosely enforcing the lockdown.

adrian009 said:

I agree the death date in Germany is probably not too much different from countries with similar proportions of those infected in other countries with developed health systems. I make that distinction because ICU care and the use of ventilators saves lives. In counties such as Spain and Italy the capacity to provide intensive care is not sufficient to meet demand. When health care systems are overwhelmed then their capacity to treat all the other illnesses such as acute coronary syndrome and bacterial infections is reduced and so more people die from causes other than coronavirus. However, your point is an important one. Countries that are only testing seriously ill people in hospitals are only measuring the tip of the iceberg when it comes to community spread (perhaps 5% as you say).

However, the article, its about being able to contain the spread of the disease and therefore reducing deaths by having less people infected.

Click to expand...

Does Germany have a thorough policy of contact tracing and isolation, as has been practised in Korea? If so then sure I can see they may be able to prevent the epidemic taking off. But this is not what the article says, it seems to me. It appears what they did was act to apply social distancing measures at an earlier stage, that's all. They still have 71,000 confirmed cases and counting, so they don't seem to have squashed the outbreak, just maybe made it grow more slowly. Which is in itself an important victory, as it prevents the health system from being overwhelmed.

exchemist said:

Does Germany have a thorough policy of contact tracing and isolation, as has been practised in Korea? If so then sure I can see they may be able to prevent the epidemic taking off. But this is not what the article says, it seems to me. It appears what they did was act to apply social distancing measures at an earlier stage, that's all. They still have 71,000 confirmed cases and counting, so they don't seem to have squashed the outbreak, just maybe made it grow more slowly. Which is in itself an important victory, as it prevents the health system from being overwhelmed.

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Contact tracing and isolation could have been much better and physical distancing could have been ordered (and enforced) about a week earlier, given the knowledge then.
Also testing is, according to the briefing from the RKI yesterday, at 200,000 per week, not 500,000. (Up from 160,000 per week during March)
From the numbers I've followed we are at about a constant number of new infections per day, i.e. out of the exponential growth.
We didn't eff up as much as other countries but the response was far from optimal.

Reporting from Germany,
heyo

Heyo said:

Contact tracing and isolation could have been much better and physical distancing could have been ordered (and enforced) about a week earlier, given the knowledge then.
Also testing is, according to the briefing from the RKI yesterday, at 200,000 per week, not 500,000. (Up from 160,000 per week during March)
From the numbers I've followed we are at about a constant number of new infections per day, i.e. out of the exponential growth.
We didn't eff up as much as other countries but the response was far from optimal.

Reporting from Germany,
heyo

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Well if you are already into straight line growth then, given the lag due to incubation period, you may have R<1 and soon see it level off and then decline. In London there are some signs the growth is no longer the same exponential (doubling interval becoming longer), but we are not linear yet.

exchemist said:

Well if you are already into straight line growth then, given the lag due to incubation period, you may have R<1 and soon see it level off and then decline. In London there are some signs the growth is no longer the same exponential (doubling interval becoming longer), but we are not linear yet.

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If people don't become sloppy the whole thing could be over in 4 weeks but I'm not holding my breath.

exchemist said:

Does Germany have a thorough policy of contact tracing and isolation, as has been practised in Korea? If so then sure I can see they may be able to prevent the epidemic taking off. But this is not what the article says, it seems to me. It appears what they did was act to apply social distancing measures at an earlier stage, that's all. They still have 71,000 confirmed cases and counting, so they don't seem to have squashed the outbreak, just maybe made it grow more slowly. Which is in itself an important victory, as it prevents the health system from being overwhelmed.

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Testing and contact tracing should go hand in hand. Here’s a link to suggest Germany has had thorough contact tracing and I agree the article I posted doesn’t emphasise it.

Coronavirus: Why Germany has such a low COVID-19 death rate

I agree South Korea has distinguished itself by its aggressive contact tracing and that’s been a key aspect of their success.

In New Zealand we use the term physical distancing rather than social distancing. We want people to stay connected to each other without putting themselves at risk and we don’t want to see a spike in mental health problems with people becoming socially isolated. So physical distancing is an essential public health strategy in combating coronavirus.

There’s no doubt Germany could be doing more to eradicate the outbreak. We shouldn’t let the bad news around the world blind us to 775 still representing a huge loss of life.