Odds arguments. Ponder this

We Never Know · Dec 22, 2019

I've seen the odds argument on here many times about life arising on earth/right chemical mixture, etc.

Ponder this for a minute. I would have never thought it true.

There are more ways to arrange a deck of 52 cards than there are atoms on Earth.
It seems unbelievable, but there are somewhere in the range of 8x10^67 ways to sort a deck of cards. That's an 8 followed by 67 zeros. To put that in perspective, even if someone could rearrange a deck of cards every second of the universe's total existence, the universe would end before they would get even one billionth of the way to finding a repeat.

There are more ways to arrange a deck of cards than there are atoms on Earth

Valjean · Dec 22, 2019

Every situation is "impossibly improbable," does that make every situation a miracle?
No matter what reality exists, it's astronomically improbable. The miraculous constellation of remarkable laws, constants and situations argument, for divine, intelligent, intentional creation, is bogus.

shunyadragon · Dec 22, 2019

We Never Know said:
I've seen the odds argument on here many times about life arising on earth/right chemical mixture, etc.

Ponder this for a minute. I would have never thought it true.

There are more ways to arrange a deck of 52 cards than there are atoms on Earth.
It seems unbelievable, but there are somewhere in the range of 8x10^67 ways to sort a deck of cards. That's an 8 followed by 67 zeros. To put that in perspective, even if someone could rearrange a deck of cards every second of the universe's total existence, the universe would end before they would get even one billionth of the way to finding a repeat.

There are more ways to arrange a deck of cards than there are atoms on Earth

Only value here is the game of 52 pickup. It is basically an odd not meaningful argument.

In nature all cause and effect event outcomes are constrained by the Laws of Nature. Only the outcome of individual events are random within the limits of possible outcomes. Statistics and probability has only limited if not marginal application in nature.

The arrangement of a deck of cards has no parallel in the nature of cause and effect outcomes in nature.

We Never Know · Dec 22, 2019

Valjean said:
Every situation is "impossibly improbable," does that make every situation a miracle?
No matter what reality exists, its astronomically improbable. The miraculous constellation of remarkable laws, constants and situations argument, for divine, intelligent, intentional creation, is bogus.

First off I don't believe in creation. My post isn't an argument for or against abigenisis or creation. It's simply a post on odds of something happening in a certain order.

We Never Know · Dec 22, 2019

shunyadragon said:
Only value here is the game of 52 pickup. It is basically an odd not meaningful argument.

In nature all cause and effect event outcomes are constrained by the Laws of Nature. Only the outcome of individual events are random within the limits of possible outcomes. Statistics and probability has only limited if not marginal application in nature.

The arrangement of a deck of cards has no parallel in the nature of cause and effect outcomes in nature.

If you can refute the post, you're welcome to do so. I however can't.
Are the odds of getting the deck in the exact same order that high? I have no reason to doubt it. But I do find it amazing that it is higher than the number of atoms on earth.

Valjean · Dec 22, 2019

We Never Know said:
First off I don't believe in creation. My post isn't an argument for or against abigenisis or creation. It's simply a post on odds of something happening in a certain order.

I imputed no such intention. I agree with you. I was just pointing out a corollary.

PureX · Dec 22, 2019

Nothing would exist, except that some things are possible within the expression of 'energy', and some are not. It is the the interaction between what can, and what cannot happen, that is happening. That is existence/non-existence. The odds are not really relevant, are they? What can happen, does, and what cannot happen, does not. So the question is, from whence does that limitation come?

ChristineM · Dec 22, 2019

We Never Know said:
I've seen the odds argument on here many times about life arising on earth/right chemical mixture, etc.

Ponder this for a minute. I would have never thought it true.

There are more ways to arrange a deck of 52 cards than there are atoms on Earth.
It seems unbelievable, but there are somewhere in the range of 8x10^67 ways to sort a deck of cards. That's an 8 followed by 67 zeros. To put that in perspective, even if someone could rearrange a deck of cards every second of the universe's total existence, the universe would end before they would get even one billionth of the way to finding a repeat.

There are more ways to arrange a deck of cards than there are atoms on Earth

But look at if this way, the odds of something happening or not are 50/50,

And to quote Terry Pratchett,
“Scientists have calculated that the chances of something so patently absurd actually existing are millions to one.
But magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten.”

Howard Is · Dec 22, 2019

ChristineM said:
magicians have calculated that million-to-one chances crop up nine times out of ten

Gotta love Terry Pratchett

ChristineM · Dec 22, 2019

Howard Is said:
Gotta love Terry Pratchett

You have no idea...

I am dyslexic, was diagnosed and corrective glasses prescribed when i was 14. I learned to read on The colour of magic, it was an epiphany and it got me hooked on books.

shunyadragon · Dec 22, 2019

We Never Know said:
If you can refute the post, you're welcome to do so. I however can't.
Are the odds of getting the deck in the exact same order that high? I have no reason to doubt it. But I do find it amazing that it is higher than the number of atoms on earth.

I need not refute the post, and in fact I could care less. I simply demonstrate that the odds of deck of cards has nothing to do with the order of the natural world.

shunyadragon · Dec 22, 2019

We Never Know said:
First off I don't believe in creation. My post isn't an argument for or against abigenisis or creation. It's simply a post on odds of something happening in a certain order.

Certain order? Needs explanation. The odds of the card deck are simply the odds of the cards constrained by how the card deck is defined, and nothing more.

We Never Know · Dec 22, 2019

shunyadragon said:
Certain order? Needs explanation. The odds of the card deck are simply the odds of the cards constrained by how the card deck is defined, and nothing more.

Maybe you should read the link and quit barking crap. That's is exactly what it is talking about, the cards coming up in a certain order.
No one said cards have anything to do with the natural but you. The post is about an odds argument of something happening or not. It's very clear you did not understand the post or the link(which I very much doubt you read). You just started barking before you even understood what was going on just to make some noise lol.

We Never Know · Dec 22, 2019

shunyadragon said:
I need not refute the post, and in fact I could care less. I simply demonstrate that the odds of deck of cards has nothing to do with the order of the natural world.

If you could care less then quit barking crap on my post. It's that simple little doggie.

shunyadragon · Dec 22, 2019

We Never Know said:
If you could care less then quit barking crap on my post. It's that simple little doggie.

Oh, not a coherent post. What is the purpose of this beyond the fact of the nature of the deck of cards.

shunyadragon · Dec 22, 2019

We Never Know said:
Maybe you should read the link and quit barking crap. That's is exactly what it is talking about, the cards coming up in a certain order.
No one said cards have anything to do with the natural but you. The post is about an odds argument of something happening or not. It's very clear you did not understand the post or the link(which I very much doubt you read). You just started barking before you even understood what was going on just to make some noise lol.

I read the link. I understand very well that the description of the odds that are related to the deck of cards.

Revoltingest · Dec 22, 2019

We Never Know said:
I've seen the odds argument on here many times about life arising on earth/right chemical mixture, etc.

Ponder this for a minute. I would have never thought it true.

There are more ways to arrange a deck of 52 cards than there are atoms on Earth.
It seems unbelievable, but there are somewhere in the range of 8x10^67 ways to sort a deck of cards. That's an 8 followed by 67 zeros. To put that in perspective, even if someone could rearrange a deck of cards every second of the universe's total existence, the universe would end before they would get even one billionth of the way to finding a repeat.

There are more ways to arrange a deck of cards than there are atoms on Earth

Factors relating to occurrence of life....
- Number of precursor molecules on the planet.
- Number of possible different paths leading to life.
- Number of times these paths occur over time (let's say 4 billion years).
- Number of possibilities that life occurred elsewhere, & then came here.
These would be very large numbers, eh.
But calculating probabilities would be impossible because the numbers aren't known.

shunyadragon · Dec 22, 2019

Revoltingest said:
Factors relating to occurrence of life....
- Number of precursor molecules on the planet.
- Number of possible different paths leading to life.
- Number of times these paths occur over time (let's say 4 billion years).
- Number of possibilities that life occurred elsewhere, & then came here.
These would be very large numbers, eh.
But calculating probabilities would be impossible because the numbers aren't known.

You may be stirring the hot pot, because he asserted his topic had nothing to do with odds and probability in nature.

Revoltingest · Dec 22, 2019

shunyadragon said:
You may be stirring the hot pot, because he asserted his topic had nothing to do with odds and probability in nature.

I simply made some claims which didn't counter anything he said.
Just expanding on thoughts of probability.
There are more such loosely relevant things to come.

shunyadragon · Dec 22, 2019

Revoltingest said:
I simply made some claims which didn't counter anything he said.
Just expanding on thoughts of probability.

That is what I thought I was doing and it pissed him off!!

Odds arguments. Ponder this

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