Is Trump Dying (Politically)?

Evangelicalhumanist said:

Not at all. The implication is very clear, some voters, following the flock, vote with the flock. But more than enough voters think for themselves. And that is all I meant, and I have faith in that system, since there isn't anything better on offer.

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I think a lot of people have faith in the system, but they may not have much faith in the "flock." Of course, some say that the flock should know better and not be so easily fooled and manipulated by political hacks and talking heads in the media. There's also an insinuation that the flock would vote more wisely if not for all the bad information and "fake news" they're getting.

But then, there's also a consequence from losing faith in the system entirely, as half of the flock doesn't even bother voting at all. They either don't care or don't believe their vote really makes much of a difference. Why bother?

Then there's the problem that so many people feel compelled to vote for the lesser of two evils, as opposed to voting for a true alternative among third party and independent candidates. There's this widespread belief that they're "throwing their votes away." So, they end up following the flock, even if they don't really want to and know it's wrong to do so. But they believe it would be worse to let the other flock take power, so they're locked into the "lesser of two evils" by default.

Even that wouldn't be so bad if the major parties had a better system for choosing better candidates, but all they offer is dreck and products of political machines.

One flaw in the system is there appears to be strong disincentives towards anyone with any real talent or ability stepping forward to offer their services to the country. The best and the brightest don't really have to do that, and it's understandable that a lot of smart and capable people don't really want to subject themselves to the rigors and pitfalls of politics.

Stevicus said:

The timing is curious. I mean, they've had three years to initiate impeachment proceedings.

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Not on the Ukrainian scheme. That only came to light a couple of months ago.

People have been calling for it; they've been wanting to do it. But they put the idea on hold, and only now, they actually start doing it. Meanwhile in the background, a lot of people are already talking about Trump winning in 2020, and we haven't even had the first primary yet.

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Meh....I rarely pay much attention to such predictions.

Stevicus said:

...They'd be far better off asking the people what they want, instead of telling the people what they should want.

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You're probably right. That's the way to win elections. But, that's why democracy is such a poor way to choose decision-makers. The politicians tell the people what they want to hear. Then they get elected and serve their own agenda.

Sunstone said:

To be sure, if the 2020 presidential election were held today, I believe Trump would win against just about anyone. The country is far from safe from that terrible infant. So, there's that.

BUT...

Trump appears to be headed down. Consider, only 25% of the country believes he did no wrong in the Ukrainian matter. Twenty-five percent! That means -- possibly for the first time in his presidency -- actual millions of his own die-hard supporters now believe he did something wrong. They ain't ready to vote against him yet, but there are cracks in the wall of his support now.

Further consider. The men Trump quite recently campaigned for in two heavily Republican states --- lost. Both of them. One of them was even five points ahead in the polls before Trump showed up to campaign for him. A couple more defeats along the same lines -- and Trump might no longer be able to keep the Republican senators in line. He has got to be able to get governors and senators elected to keep his support in the Senate.

Poor guy. He's a waning moon now. He absolutely could still win in 2020, but -- well, things ain't going well for him these days.

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I'm not sure why you think Trump would win given today's polling...don't the 2018 and 2019 elections seem to point otherwise and recent polling of head to head matchups of several of the Democratic candidates?

RealClearPolitics - 2020 - Latest 2020 General Election Polls

However, I think we see a kind of overwhelming silence right now because person after person saying, "Yep, he went there" and "Yep, he did that".

I'm sure the Republicans are fretting while this public humiliation is rolling out. But once it is done they can redirect everyone's attention from the obvious so there will he a sort of rebound. The people loyal to the Republican principles can just go silent and then vote how ever they want. The Republicans in office are the ones that have to weigh their conscience against the will of their constituents and do the math.

I hope the short term math works out for Trump being done in a year or less. I think that the Republican party will find that it wasn't worth it in the end.

Stevicus said:

The timing is curious. I mean, they've had three years to initiate impeachment proceedings.

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I wouldn't say that. They've been patiently waiting, believing that Mueller was going to hand them Trump on a silver platter, if obviously not for any of the collusion nonsense, then for some process crime. When "Mueller Time" hit with all the impact of a wet noodle they desperately hopped on the first train they could. It also conveniently allowed them to protect perhaps the best opportunity to defeat Trump electorally from scrutiny (that is why despite the best defense of Trump's actions in regards to Ukraine being that Biden clearly did deserve to be investigated, and that if corruption were found to have occurred the impeachment would fall apart, no witnesses will be heard about the impetus for Trump's request).

Stevicus said:

Maybe, although much of that would depend on Democrats themselves and how they conduct their own campaign. If they run a campaign based on the theme of "Trump sucks, we hate him," then they'll probably lose. They'd be far better off asking the people what they want, instead of telling the people what they should want.

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I agree with that. Listen to people's real needs.

Some peoples wants are utterly impossible like bringing back the past in one way or another including supporting dying industries with government handouts.

But the need under the want is for a decent job at decent pay and hope for the future. That's another matter.

Sunstone said:

To be sure, if the 2020 presidential election were held today, I believe Trump would win against just about anyone. The country is far from safe from that terrible infant. So, there's that.

BUT...

Trump appears to be headed down. Consider, only 25% of the country believes he did no wrong in the Ukrainian matter. Twenty-five percent! That means -- possibly for the first time in his presidency -- actual millions of his own die-hard supporters now believe he did something wrong. They ain't ready to vote against him yet, but there are cracks in the wall of his support now.

Further consider. The men Trump quite recently campaigned for in two heavily Republican states --- lost. Both of them. One of them was even five points ahead in the polls before Trump showed up to campaign for him. A couple more defeats along the same lines -- and Trump might no longer be able to keep the Republican senators in line. He has got to be able to get governors and senators elected to keep his support in the Senate.

Poor guy. He's a waning moon now. He absolutely could still win in 2020, but -- well, things ain't going well for him these days.

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I hope so!

Evangelicalhumanist said:

Not at all. The implication is very clear, some voters, following the flock, vote with the flock. But more than enough voters think for themselves. And that is all I meant, and I have faith in that system, since there isn't anything better on offer.

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Ok, so, what if some voters vote for trump, would you say they all dont think for themselves?

Sunstone said:

To be sure, if the 2020 presidential election were held today, I believe Trump would win against just about anyone. The country is far from safe from that terrible infant. So, there's that.

BUT...

Trump appears to be headed down. Consider, only 25% of the country believes he did no wrong in the Ukrainian matter. Twenty-five percent! That means -- possibly for the first time in his presidency -- actual millions of his own die-hard supporters now believe he did something wrong. They ain't ready to vote against him yet, but there are cracks in the wall of his support now.

Further consider. The men Trump quite recently campaigned for in two heavily Republican states --- lost. Both of them. One of them was even five points ahead in the polls before Trump showed up to campaign for him. A couple more defeats along the same lines -- and Trump might no longer be able to keep the Republican senators in line. He has got to be able to get governors and senators elected to keep his support in the Senate.

Poor guy. He's a waning moon now. He absolutely could still win in 2020, but -- well, things ain't going well for him these days.

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“That terrible infant” made me snort with laughter really hard and unexpectedly.

It’s a perfect description.

Also: good to see you (via forums) again! Hope you are well.

Mister Emu said:

I wouldn't say that. They've been patiently waiting, believing that Mueller was going to hand them Trump on a silver platter, if obviously not for any of the collusion nonsense, then for some process crime. When "Mueller Time" hit with all the impact of a wet noodle they desperately hopped on the first train they could. It also conveniently allowed them to protect perhaps the best opportunity to defeat Trump electorally from scrutiny (that is why despite the best defense of Trump's actions in regards to Ukraine being that Biden clearly did deserve to be investigated, and that if corruption were found to have occurred the impeachment would fall apart, no witnesses will be heard about the impetus for Trump's request).

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Witnesses have been heard about the impetus of Trump’s request - and they were either alarmed at the time or have become alarmed now.

Some of the folks who provided the impetus, like Guiliani’s associates who are now convicted felons, or the former Ukraine prosecutor who has been disgraced and recanted his story, are probably not credible enough to appear before Congress.

I think everyone would be curious to hear if Trump, Giuliani, Mulvaney, Pence, etc have something to say about the impetus of the request to investigate Biden that isn’t already known. Yet they’ve offered nothing and will not testify under oath, why? Perhaps it’s because bribing a corrupt country by mis-using military aid was not, it turns out, the orthodox or appropriate path to investigate a US citizen - only the most expedient path to smear a political opponent.