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Brexit in a nutshell

Altfish

Veteran Member
‘Two thirds of British jobs in manufacturing are dependent on demand from Europe’ – Alan Johnson

‘We will need an emergency Budget to restore stability to public finances’ – George Osborne
The first statement is true - it doesn't mean that all those jobs will go, but they are dependent on imports/exports to and from Europe.

The Bank of England implemented measures to lessen the post Referendum panic. We have been told by Johnson and his cabinet that there will be a Brexit budget - they may not be calling it an Emergency budget, but that's what it is.
 
I certainly get that impression based on the what I have seen. I doubt one could call the right-wing popular press as appealing to the more thinking. And most of these are all Brexiteers in orientation. I agree that there are positive and negatives to the issue but overall it seems wiser to stay in an organisation giving us sufficient benefits, and where we should be striving to change bits that we don't like, rather than leaving and getting into a worse mess.

That one course seems 'wiser' than the other is a question of values rather than objective, impartial consideration of evidence though. This point seems lost on many remainers.

How should we rank these in terms of importance or likelihood? Do better short term prospects trump increased democratic legitimacy? It's simply a value judgement.

Long term economic effects = unknown
Short/mid term economic effects = favours remain
Democracy = favours Brexit
Long term risk = good cases for either
Preventing extremism = good cases for either

and so forth.
 
The first statement is true - it doesn't mean that all those jobs will go, but they are dependent on imports/exports to and from Europe.

The Bank of England implemented measures to lessen the post Referendum panic. We have been told by Johnson and his cabinet that there will be a Brexit budget - they may not be calling it an Emergency budget, but that's what it is.

Neither of them were true, hence the article about demonstrably false claims which also explains why they were demonstrably false.

"My side all good, other side all bad" emotion over reason. As you said, it's like a religion (i.e. it's fundamentally about ideology and identity rather than tangible reality).
 

Altfish

Veteran Member

I suppose you still haven't read the linked article?

Brexit vote was 2016, it was relating to an emergency post-Brexit vote budget (which factually didn't happen), not a potential no deal budget 3 years in the future.

Anyway, the other lie was of far more consequence as it is at least as bad as the NHS one that some people seem to think near invalidates the whole referendum.

Brexiteers tell a whopper "Must vote again! The people were mislead! Treachery!"
Remain tell a whopper "We are reason and virtue personified. Nothing to see here, carry on."
 

Mock Turtle

Oh my, did I say that!
Premium Member
That one course seems 'wiser' than the other is a question of values rather than objective, impartial consideration of evidence though. This point seems lost on many remainers.

How should we rank these in terms of importance or likelihood? Do better short term prospects trump increased democratic legitimacy? It's simply a value judgement.

Long term economic effects = unknown
Short/mid term economic effects = favours remain
Democracy = favours Brexit
Long term risk = good cases for either
Preventing extremism = good cases for either

and so forth.

True that it is a bit nebulous - and few of us (not me) are experts - such that we would be wise to take advice from those more expert - something Gove seemingly warned us against doing. But I still maintain that it was more down to rhetoric and appealing to the masses - language used - than in weighing up the pros and cons more objectively.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ung-voters-remain-eu-referendum-a7103996.html

Our survey showed 64% of graduates were planning to vote to remain compared with only 25% of people with no formal qualifications at all. Some 58% of people in professional and higher management jobs wanted to remain compared with only 27% of people in unskilled jobs.
 
True that it is a bit nebulous - and few of us (not me) are experts - such that we would be wise to take advice from those more expert - something Gove seemingly warned us against doing. But I still maintain that it was more down to rhetoric and appealing to the masses - language used - than in weighing up the pros and cons more objectively.

There are no experts on Brexit though, as it has never happened before and many factors are unknown and subject to unknown future human activity.

What kind of person would you hold up as an expert on Brexit? What qualifies them?

But I still maintain that it was more down to rhetoric and appealing to the masses - language used - than in weighing up the pros and cons more objectively.

That was true of both sides. Few people undertook a comprehensive, impartial analysis of the pros and cons.

Most people on both sides are deciding heuristically, not systematically.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...ung-voters-remain-eu-referendum-a7103996.html

Our survey showed 64% of graduates were planning to vote to remain compared with only 25% of people with no formal qualifications at all. Some 58% of people in professional and higher management jobs wanted to remain compared with only 27% of people in unskilled jobs.

This can also tell us which parts of society have reaped most of the benefits of the EU, and which parts have experienced the most harms.
 

Altfish

Veteran Member
I suppose you still haven't read the linked article?

Brexit vote was 2016, it was relating to an emergency post-Brexit vote budget (which factually didn't happen), not a potential no deal budget 3 years in the future.

Anyway, the other lie was of far more consequence as it is at least as bad as the NHS one that some people seem to think near invalidates the whole referendum.

Brexiteers tell a whopper "Must vote again! The people were mislead! Treachery!"
Remain tell a whopper "We are reason and virtue personified. Nothing to see here, carry on."
You highlighted two lies, I gave evidence that they weren't lies; so you now fly off on a tangent.

Well done.
 

Mock Turtle

Oh my, did I say that!
Premium Member
There are no experts on Brexit though, as it has never happened before and many factors are unknown and subject to unknown future human activity.

What kind of person would you hold up as an expert on Brexit? What qualifies them?

Well, I suppose an economist might come to mind first - as to the impact on jobs, trade, etc. - but as you say, there are many unknowns. I suspect that being outside a quite powerful group without a voice concerning their behaviour and attitudes might not be something we would want, particularly when we previously had about 50% of our trade with them. And obtaining much of our produce from further away seems a poor substitute - food-miles and all. Not sure if any other experts would be of value, apart from those who understand the nature of progress - like globalisation, and the fact that it is hardly something one can halt. People might complain about job losses, for example, but then buy goods that are made elsewhere because they are cheaper (in production and wages). Bit of a double-edged sword.

But I still maintain that it was more down to rhetoric and appealing to the masses - language used - than in weighing up the pros and cons more objectively.

That was true of both sides. Few people undertook a comprehensive, impartial analysis of the pros and cons.

True. I suspect those who voted Remain needed some substantial reasons to vote Leave rather than those given by the Leave side, and without such they preferred the alternative option.


This can also tell us which parts of society have reaped most of the benefits of the EU, and which parts have experienced the most harms.

To some extent perhaps but also they might have appreciated the benefits more than any deficits. And the young no doubt saw things differently than those older - but not this oldie. :D
 
You highlighted two lies, I gave evidence that they weren't lies; so you now fly off on a tangent.

Well done.

You have mistaken offering an unsupported assertion and completely irrelevant information published several years too late as 'evidence they weren't lies', and claimed pointing this out constituted 'flying off on a tangent'.

Well done.

Do you consider The Independent to be a peddler of pro-Brexit fake news btw?

Lie 1: ‘Two thirds of British jobs in manufacturing are dependent on demand from Europe’ – Alan Johnson
This claim by the Remain campaign was based on outdated data by the Centre of Economics and Business Research (CEBR). The consultancy has since revised the figures: it says the figure is more likely to be around 17 per cent.

The problem with the original figure was that the Remain campaign compared the total number of manufacturing jobs, 2.55 million, with the 1.7 million jobs the CEBR had said were dependent both directly and indirectly on EU trade, including in other industries. The two figures are not comparable so the two-thirds number was wrong.


Your "evidence":

The first statement is true - it doesn't mean that all those jobs will go, but they are dependent on imports/exports to and from Europe.

Feel free to provide a rational, evidence based refutation of the above point. But simply asserting it's not a lie despite the evidence is the kind of thing you ideological blindness you criticise Brexiteers for.

Don't you agree that such a misleading claim is at least as problematic as the NHS one? (which was also based on a statistical sleight of hand)


Point 2: ‘We will need an emergency Budget to restore stability to public finances’ – George Osborne
George Osborne’s predicted “emergency Budget” full of tax rises and spending cuts after the Brexit vote never materialisedthe Treasury has broadly stuck to Mr Osborne’s economic plans on spending from before the vote. It also has no significant plans to raise taxes or cut spending when Britain actually leaves the EU in March 2019.

It could be argued that Mr Osborne never had the opportunity to implement his emergency Budget, because he was replaced by Philip Hammond. But ignoring the fact that the two chancellors are from the same party and both campaigned for Remain, Mr Osborne did have nearly a month in office after the 2016 referendum, suggesting it wasn’t that much of an emergency.


Your evidence:


Not fake news, just irrelevant as I previously told you.


Multiple times in this thread remainers championing their rationality and objective reasoning have simply dismissed out of hand evidence that goes against their emotionally-driven worldview. Evidence from centre-left papers like The Guardian and The Independent, not Brexiteer shills or right-wing tabloids.

Why would you even expect any highly partisan political campaign to feature one side who was completely fair and honest in their arguments? Particularly when that side contains lots of people you would likely not trust in the slightest if they were speaking as Tories rather than Remainers.

Sorry to break it to you, but politicians lie and make misleading statements. Even the ones who support your favourite causes.
 
Well, I suppose an economist might come to mind first

If you look at the overall track record of economists and their 'models', you wouldn't consider them experts on anything.

You'd be better off flipping a coin because at least you'd know you were relying on blind luck.

I suspect that being outside a quite powerful group without a voice concerning their behaviour and attitudes might not be something we would want, particularly when we previously had about 50% of our trade with them. And obtaining much of our produce from further away seems a poor substitute - food-miles and all. Not sure if any other experts would be of value, apart from those who understand the nature of progress - like globalisation, and the fact that it is hardly something one can halt. People might complain about job losses, for example, but then buy goods that are made elsewhere because they are cheaper (in production and wages). Bit of a double-edged sword.

Ever considered the merits of localism over globalism? For me that would be real progress (and I think it will become a more popular view over time, not that I expect it to happen quickly).

But I still maintain that it was more down to rhetoric and appealing to the masses - language used - than in weighing up the pros and cons more objectively.

I fully agree with you, I've always said it was a value judgement. I just think it's pretty clear that this applies to most people on both sides.

Put it this way, how many remainers could write a comprehensive, evidence-based overview of the reasons different people support Brexit (and vice versa)? I'd be amazed if it exceeds 10% (being generous).

True. I suspect those who voted Remain needed some substantial reasons to vote Leave rather than those given by the Leave side, and without such they preferred the alternative option.

Well, if they had been considering it objectively they could have searched out their own reasons to weigh up, but not many did (which is not a criticism, it's just the nature of mass democracy)

To some extent perhaps but also they might have appreciated the benefits more than any deficits. And the young no doubt saw things differently than those older - but not this oldie. :D

The young are always idealistic :D
 

Estro Felino

Believer in free will
Premium Member
Farage with Italian MEPs who support Brexit
;):)


20190918_125405.jpg
 

Notanumber

A Free Man
I'm voting for a party that does not stop benefits, does not introduce austerity, is not singing the Murdoch songs, has compassion and cares for the deprived and homeless.

You mean like the Labour Party that left the Tories a note informing them that there was no money left in the kitty.
 

Estro Felino

Believer in free will
Premium Member
As I already explained, MEP A.M.Rinaldi defends the will of the British people to exit the EU and harshly condemns the Brussels technocrats for not wanting to grant all the requests the British will ask for....since our trades depend on them.



Shamefully interrupted...
 

Estro Felino

Believer in free will
Premium Member
Changing the subject again.


20190919_074634.jpg


Translation
The Lega has turned out to be the last stronghold of democracy in Europe, we have voted in favor of the British citizens and of democracy, today.

The results of the Brexit referendum is labeled as deplorable by the ruling parties in Brussels.
 
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