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For everyone who told me I was stupid to think war with Iran was likely or iminent

columbus

yawn <ignore> yawn
Any stories in particular you'd like to or would be at liberty to share?
So many I have considered starting a thread about them.
But I'm kinda lazy and don't care about RF all that much.
Tom

ETA ~Three of things that they predicted about the Iraq Invasion:
1) No WMDs would be found. If Hussein still had any he'd use them against the invasion.
2) Iraq wasn't interested in a western style democracy. The country would descend into bloody civil war instead.
3) ISIS. Not the name, but that remnants of the old military and Islamists would congregate. Then launch a war against the rest of the world.

Compare that to the predictions made by the Bush administration and US media.~
 
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Shiranui117

Pronounced Shee-ra-noo-ee
Premium Member
Anything is possible of course.
But an ugly thought that's occurred to me is this.
Iran has a powerful motivation to develop weapons technology that can control shipping in the gulf oil shipping lanes. New technology, with advanced computer brains and advanced destruction potential.

Suppose this is a trial operation to see how well the new technology works?
Tom
I don't know why they would want to do that when they already have such powerful geographical chokepoints. Why make the Straits of Hormuz more dangerous? It just gives Iraq and Kuwait more incentive to cooperate with Saudi Arabia to construct oil pipelines that would go across the Arabian peninsula to the Red Sea and bypass having to deal with Iran altogether, thus negating the geographical leverage that Iran relies on. Why would they not just shoot themselves in the foot, but blow off their whole leg?
 

Stevicus

Veteran Member
Staff member
Premium Member
Around 20 years ago I realized how little I knew about Muslims and the Muslim world.
To make a long story short, I started visiting a mosque in Bloomington Indiana. Once the people there came to realize that I was neither a potential convert nor an enemy, I just wanted to learn, I was included in some pretty frank discussions about the situation in the Middle East. I learned things about both them and my own country that were gut wrenching.
Things I have never, to this day, heard competently discussed in western media.

Like the Iranian view of the Iran/USA history and relationships. They have a whole different, and better informed, version of events.
Tom

I went through similar periods of discovery regarding various "enemies" in the outside world which were often presented in the media as monolithic, one-dimensional entities as to raise my skepticism and suspicion. That's one of the reasons I wanted to learn about Russia early in life. During the Cold War, they said things like "know your enemy," so I wanted to know who they were and what made them tick.

With Iran, it was a bit different. I was a teenager when the Iranians stormed the US embassy and held our people hostage for 444 days. It was on the news every night. All the kids at school were talking about it. It was the main topic dominating the airwaves. People were incensed that they violated the sanctity of the embassy, burned our flag, shouted "Death to America." And the media showed this over and over and over - every night. The media (and most Americans, frankly) didn't really want to hear their speeches or explanations as to why they did what they did. They didn't even care, for the most part. The only thing that mattered was that they provoked us and deserved a sharp reaction.

Things got a bit more tangled when Reagan made backroom deals with Iran - all the while making it seem that we were still against Iran. That's where things got a bit confused in terms of our attitude towards Iran. And then suddenly Iraq was the enemy and Iran was put on the back burner.

I also learned a few things about Islam from local Muslims, although one local Muslim cleric who seemed to make sense and gave a rather clear view of Islam was murdered due to his allegedly "heretical" teachings of Islam. (Rashad Khalifa - Wikipedia) I didn't really want to get involved in Islam after that.

Overall, I understand that the Iranians have a point. Their position isn't complete craziness, even if it might be presented that way. They did have a righteous grievance over the US role in the installation of the Shah, as well as various other hostile actions by the US and the generally hegemonic approach the US has taken to the overall region.

You'd think it would be relatively easy for people to realize that some people don't like it when their country is interfered with or ruled over by another country. People tend to not like it when other countries rattle their saber or put large numbers of troops, planes, and ships right on their doorstep. Even if it isn't discussed on the media that much, it should still be relatively easy for people to figure out.
 

columbus

yawn <ignore> yawn
Could be. I wonder if he will try to jump in when his Trump lap dog is getting the best of his other lap dog.
I think that Russia's alliance with Iran and Syria mean far more to Putin than Trump.

Putin wanted Trump to be president because Trump promised to restart conflict with Iran, Clinton would have kept the peace deal. Putin didn't want that, he wanted to form an alliance with the obviously most powerful nation in the gulf oil region, Iran.
Putin is leading his lap dog Trump into an unwinnable war with Iran, because it serves to help Russia become the dominant power in the strategically vital gulf oil region.
Tom
 

Kangaroo Feathers

Yea, it is written in the Book of Cyril...
64537764_459820284591757_8771947098321977344_n.jpg
 

columbus

yawn <ignore> yawn
And if war breaks out, we can call it "Trump's War" because he's taken actions leading up to this, and our closest allies are not happy right now.
That won't change the fact that it's yet another USA assault on Iran.
We USonian people could change history by opposing, effectively, yet another war against a middle east country.
But we won't, in all likelihood. Like @Revoltingest says, the USA is very warlike. We love wars, because generally we win them.
It comes at huge cost to the little people, but the folks that run the government benefit a great deal.
T'was always thus.
Tom
 

Kangaroo Feathers

Yea, it is written in the Book of Cyril...
. We love wars, because generally we win them.
Because traditionally you fight significantly weaker powers. You haven't "won" a war of the sort this promises to be in a long time. See: Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq.

I know you like to think of yourselves as plucky underdogs, but the fact is you've never won a war against a comparable force.
 

metis

aged ecumenical anthropologist
That won't change the fact that it's yet another USA assault on Iran.
We USonian people could change history by opposing, effectively, yet another war against a middle east country.
But we won't, in all likelihood. Like @Revoltingest says, the USA is very warlike. We love wars, because generally we win them.
It comes at huge cost to the little people, but the folks that run the government benefit a great deal.
T'was always thus.
Tom
Exactly.
 

Road Warrior

Seeking the middle path..
I couldn't disagree more!
By the time you see numbers like that it's too late.
Now is the time to get educated and ask hard questions.
Tom
I'm educated. What questions do you think should be asked? Do you want Geraldo Rivera to draw the plans in the sand on global television?
 

Road Warrior

Seeking the middle path..
Go look up "escalation" before you presume to lecture me. Note I said "First step" in great big letters at the bottom of the OP? No one was suggesting a thousand troops, by themselves, is a war fighting group. By the time there's a couple hundred thou in theatre, it will have too much momentum to stop. Start demanding de-escalation now, before things get to invasion level troop numbers.
Look up panic attack before you start fanning panic among others with your conspiracy theories. 10,000 troops is escalation. A 1,000 troops is a training exercise.
 

columbus

yawn <ignore> yawn
I'm educated.
I don't see any reason to believe that.

Tell me why the Bush administration launched the Iraqi invasion of Iran.


What questions do you think should be asked?
Why did Trump promise to restart conflict with Iran?
Why did the Republicans send a letter to the world letting them know that the USA will not keep a peace treaty?
Why is Trump doing things that are great for Russian ambitions, but don't have anything to do with "Make America Great Again"? How is attacking Iran serving USA interests?
That's a start.
Tom
 
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