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Trump's Political Strategy to Win Reelection in 2020 -- How Smart is it?

Sunstone

De Diablo Del Fora
Premium Member
Trump won each of the four states that put him over the top in electoral college votes by less than 100,000 votes. For instance, in one of those states alone -- Michigan -- a shift of just two votes per precinct would have denied him the whole state.

In addition to that, he lost the nationwide popular vote by three million votes.

So you might think Trump would do what almost all presidents do and work to expand his party. However, that has not been the case. Since taking office, he's done very little to expand the Republican Party, and in the recent midterms, he focused on campaigning in solid red states where Republicans were for the most part projected to win anyway -- a strange use of his time that some folks might regard as incompetent.

In short, Trump's strategy appears to be to solidify his base, rather than to reach out to new voters.

That seems like a losing strategy because the Republican Party is in decline, and has been in decline since the last years of George W. Bush.

It's in decline among most groups -- younger people, women, college educated people, etc. Other groups that tend to vote overwhelmingly Democratic -- Asians, Blacks, Hispanics, Jews -- have held constant and seen no growth in Republican membership. Only a very few groups -- such as White Evangelical Christians -- have seen membership in the Republican Party increase. But they cannot offset the losses in other groups. On net, the Republican Party is getting smaller.

Meanwhile, the Democratic Party is also in decline, and has been since Obama's first term. What's grown tremendously has been the group of independent voters.

But independents tend to lean towards either the Republicans or the Democrats when it comes to voting. And independents that lean Democratic are a growing majority.

All in all, the news isn't good for Trump. However, I still think Trump has a pretty good chance of being reelected in 2020 for a variety of reasons. It will take major work -- and some luck -- to turn him out of office.

On the other hand, Trump is, in my opinion, a fairly incompetent person (as evidenced by his numerous business failures, etc,etc), and his political strategy of solidifying his base, rather than expanding his party, means he's doing very little to make up for the dwindling number of Republican voters. Indeed, his efforts to solidify his base -- efforts which largely comprise appealing to their hatreds and fears -- seem to be driving more balanced people away from the Republican Party. However, his strategy will most likely win him the nomination since people who vote in primaries tend to be party stalwarts. Can it win him reelection, though?

Is Trump pursuing a smart strategy? Your thoughts, please.

NOTE...he has plenty of time to change his strategy between now and 2020, and it will be quite interesting to see if he does.



This OP has been based on these and other sources:

1. Trends in party affiliation among demographic groups

Millennial women leaving the Republican Party in droves: Pew

Party Affiliation

Trump owns a shrinking Republican party
 

TurkeyOnRye

Well-Known Member
My prediction is a Trump re-election. Reason? Not campaign strategy, not principle, not policy positions, but...Statistics. Historically, once a candidate has secured their first term, their odds of securing a second term grows exponentially. In addition, Hillary Clinton apparently has no plans to run in 2020, meaning the Democratic party is going to have to conjure up fresh meat to throw at voters. So, yeah, I think Trump has an excellent shot. He may even win the popular vote this time...it'll be like the George W. Bush presidency all over again. Having said that, if Elizabeth Warren makes a bid, I do think she would have a very good chance against Trump.
 

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
Trump's goal for this last election appeared to be not to lose the Senate. The House was dead. And since jumbuck very few Republican seats at risk were in the election his chore was not all that difficult. But as far as future strategies to it was a rather worrisome loss. Take Florida for example. I do not think they will be able to be able to fend off the results of adding one and a half new mostly Democratic potential new voters. Great gains were made in Texas as well. I could even see him having some trouble in that state.

As to his strategy he probably should and will focus on the economy and claim all credit for its growth. Appealing to the darker nature of many of his followers will probably be in the works as well.
 

Laika

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
Is Trump pursuing a smart strategy? Your thoughts, please.

Despite everything, his polling numbers have remained fairly solid amongst his supporters with a 42.2% approval rating according to fivethirtyeight, going up to 44% of registered or likely voters. The man knows how to campaign and push people's buttons and his base will vote. It makes it almost certain he will win the Republican nomination for starters. Its not guaranteed to win the election, but its still a pretty good chance if the Democrats screw it up (which they probably will).

CNN Rankings of 2020 Democratic Contenders shows no-one who is likely to take the spotlight off Trump. At this point, I'd guess either Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren. My expectations are the call for "bipartisanship" to ring out, try to win over independents and anti-Trump Republicans and move further to the right (calling it the "centre ground"). It will be an uninspired campaign, slickly marketed which addresses nothing of substance. Of the two, its more likely to be Warren because she's a woman. But otherwise, its the standard "vote for us to feel good so we don't have to change anything" campaign that will keep the donors happy.

Sanders might run and (if he was allowed to win by the Democratic Party) that would be an interesting campaign to watch. If it was a Sanders vs. Trump election, I'd say it will be a 2 to 1 odds Trump will win because he can play the "Socialist" card and bring out a pro-business agenda, more tax cuts, talk about "freedom" a lot, get the NRA out to vote over gun rights against the "take away your guns socialist tyrant" and roll in the big money. It could backfire horribly for Sanders based on just how deep anti-socialist/anti-communist sentiment is in the US (even if it would help people).

What the Democrats have to do is to get a candidate who is has the shock value of Trump and will take the spotlight off him so he doesn't get so much free media. Unfortunately, this is the age of social media so they'll have to pick a celebrity with an already established brand and fan base over a "professional politician". Trump ripped up the rule book and democrats have to do the same if they are going to compete to make as much white noise as possible to drown Trump out. It's why Oprah came up early on- someone with star quality but few recorded views and is a black women *ticks box* who is also very wealthy. It has to be someone people can get excited about so no-one has to talk policy and upset the donors by getting in to details. So, option 1 would be someone like Arnold Swaggerer, a moderate Republican who can win over the centre but has celebrity status, reality TV host, a fan following and a lot of experience in media so its entertaining and good television that people will tune in to watch even if they don't like they guy or what he stands for. But there could be some issues over a missing birth certificate so, perhaps not. He'd have a good chance of beating Trump though.

arnold_vote4me.jpg

Alternatively, if he could get the democratic nomination this guy might be inaugurated President in
colbert_live_.gif

Admit it, you're smiling. You want to see it happen. :D
 

Sunstone

De Diablo Del Fora
Premium Member
As to his strategy he probably should and will focus on the economy and claim all credit for its growth. Appealing to the darker nature of many of his followers will probably be in the works as well.

It's strange he didn't focus on the economy this time around -- a whole lot of Republicans begged him to, but his instincts were to focus on immigration and hatred of Democrats. Both those topics alienated suburban swing voters, but rallied his base. Obviously, they failed to keep the House in Republican hands.

I'm not sure he'll have much of an economy to run on in 2020. His tax cut might be coming home to roost by then.
 

averageJOE

zombie
It really doesn't matter what his strategy is. The Democrats will most likely force another corporate hack through the primaries (Biden, Harris, Booker) who will inspire no one to come out and vote. They will speak in platitudes, run on issues that are center-right, and keep yelling "Trump is bad". You know, like they did in 2016.
 

Shadow Link

Active Member
It really doesn't matter what his strategy is. The Democrats will most likely force another corporate hack through the primaries (Biden, Harris, Booker) who will inspire no one to come out and vote. They will speak in platitudes, run on issues that are center-right, and keep yelling "Trump is bad". You know, like they did in 2016.
Most sources I've been reading are saying Michael Bloomberg.
 

Watchmen

Well-Known Member
Premium Member
Most here probably know I’m a Trump supporter and believe he will be re-elected. But, I do believe Biden would give him a run for his money and could beat him. Warren? No way.
 

Sunstone

De Diablo Del Fora
Premium Member
It really doesn't matter what his strategy is. The Democrats will most likely force another corporate hack through the primaries (Biden, Harris, Booker) who will inspire no one to come out and vote. They will speak in platitudes, run on issues that are center-right, and keep yelling "Trump is bad". You know, like they did in 2016.

Yup. That's the Dems.
 
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