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Growing global population

Hammzah

Hammzah

Member
Some argue that population will rise in the future, while others argue that it won't rise and will decline.

Japan and Russia is a good example, as to why the population might decline. People in Russia does not produce as many kids like they used to, because majority of people left the village life, where they used to produce as many kids as they wanted to because they needed help to take care of chickens and so on... Those 2 countries is a good example as to why the population will not rise but will decline. The more we develop and the more we become urban the less kids we will end up producing.

India for example, is nothing but villages, right? And so, they have many kids. Once India become more urban like Japan for example, then the population will start to decline like its declining in Japan and Russia.
 
Estro Felino

Estro Felino

Believer in free will
Premium Member
Russia (like most European countries) has very low birth rates because people can't afford to have children. Urbanization took place 70 years ago in Russia, so it has nothing to do with birth rates
 
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C

columbus

yawn <ignore> yawn
Hammzah said:
Some argue that population will rise in the future, while others argue that it won't rise and will decline.
Click to expand...
It's not really the sheer numbers that are the big challenge. That has slowed enormously in the last few decades.
It's the expectations of those billions.
If everyone were willing to live like subsistence farmers, sure we could support a few billion more. But increasingly, in this shrinking global village, people aren't willing to struggle along without safe water or floors or electricity or transportation or such simple things.
So the impact of the human race is growing much faster than the simple number of humans.
Tom
 
Estro Felino

Estro Felino

Believer in free will
Premium Member
Hammzah said:
I believe you're making a selective perceptional error, because Japanese people can afford to have children.
Click to expand...
Well...I am only informed about the socio-economic aspects of European demography. I can't tell what the implications are in Japan.

Hammzah said:
And, Russian people can afford to have children.
Click to expand...
Well, it was proven that in most European countries, (including the Slavic world, Greece, Spain and Italy), the economic instability is the main cause of the demographic decline. Besides, just ask Russians and they will confirm this to you.
 
Hammzah

Hammzah

Member
Luca85 said:
Well...I am only informed about the socio-economic aspects of European demography. I can't tell what the implications are in Japan.


Well, it was proven that in most European countries, (including the Slavic world, Greece, Spain and Italy), the economic instability is the main cause of the demographic decline. Besides, just ask Russians and they will confirm this to you.
Click to expand...

Well, yes and no. The reason why I believe that people don't have many children is because they don't need any help like they did in the village times.
 
Subduction Zone

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
columbus said:
It's not really the sheer numbers that are the big challenge. That has slowed enormously in the last few decades.
It's the expectations of those billions.
If everyone were willing to live like subsistence farmers, sure we could support a few billion more. But increasingly, in this shrinking global village, people aren't willing to struggle along without safe water or floors or electricity or transportation or such simple things.
So the impact of the human race is growing much faster than the simple number of humans.
Tom
Click to expand...


I have my doubts about this claim. Subsistence farming was much less efficient than modern farming the last time that I checked. The various agricultural revolutions are what enabled our present rather bloated population.

The good news is that the rate of increase is decreasing. That means that if things continue as they are going that we may hit a limit before running into the woes predicted by Dr. Malthus.
 
Shad

Shad

Veteran Member
Subduction Zone said:
I have my doubts about this claim. Subsistence farming was much less efficient than modern farming the last time that I checked. The various agricultural revolutions are what enabled our present rather bloated population.
Click to expand...

If I remember correctly the human population at the turn of the 20th century was 1 billion. At the turn of the 21st it was over 7 billion. Toss in medical advancement which increased life expectancy of the lower classes.
 
Subduction Zone

Subduction Zone

Veteran Member
Shad said:
If I remember correctly the human population at the turn of the 20th century was 1 billion. At the turn of the 21st it was over 7 billion. Toss in medical advancement which increased life expectancy of the lower classes.
Click to expand...

Off by one error. The one billion person mark occurred roughly at the turn of the 19th century, or if one likes numbers, roughly 1800:

Population growth - Wikipedia

A recent video I watched said that we may never hit 12 billion. The tide of growth may be turning. I will see if I can find it.

 
Shad

Shad

Veteran Member
Subduction Zone said:
I found the video that explains how we will probably not double again.
Click to expand...

That is if the cited trends, social systems and personal choices are maintain. I do wonder if said citations would be the same if China didn't have a law on reproduction.
 
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