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Will the EU survive?
- Thread starter Yerda
- Start date
Augustus
…
It hasn't learned anything post-Brexit so I doubt it.
There's always been a strong ideological drive to the EU, which is why Eastern Europe was admitted so quickly. The political aspects of the EU are what will kill it. Instead of seeing it as simply a trading bloc, the drive to 'ever closer union' has been pursued a bit too enthusiastically.
The Euro was always a disaster waiting to happen, but again it was primarily pursued for ideological reasons rather than pragmatic ones.
Now EU countries are trying to double down by making 'making an example' of the UK. Instead of taking it as a warning that reform was needed to prevent other countries leaving, they try to deter other countries from leaving through intimidation.
An unwillingness to accept that there are limits to the degree of integration that can be sustained long term will likely prove fatal. Ironically, by going for too much power, they will end up with none at lass.
There's always been a strong ideological drive to the EU, which is why Eastern Europe was admitted so quickly. The political aspects of the EU are what will kill it. Instead of seeing it as simply a trading bloc, the drive to 'ever closer union' has been pursued a bit too enthusiastically.
The Euro was always a disaster waiting to happen, but again it was primarily pursued for ideological reasons rather than pragmatic ones.
Now EU countries are trying to double down by making 'making an example' of the UK. Instead of taking it as a warning that reform was needed to prevent other countries leaving, they try to deter other countries from leaving through intimidation.
An unwillingness to accept that there are limits to the degree of integration that can be sustained long term will likely prove fatal. Ironically, by going for too much power, they will end up with none at lass.
I am sorry that so few seem to appreciate it.
Even in Eurosceptic Britain 48% or thereabouts of the voting population backed Remaining in the EU, including 75% of under-30s, so what makes you so sure that "few will mourn it"?
The political climate in Europe as a whole.
Polls consistently show that a majority in the core EU Member States that were original signatories to the founding 1957 Treaty of Rome are pro-European in attitude.
Even Eurosceptic Britain has a massive pro-EU minority. 22% desire a second referendum. Remain vs Leave the EU is solidifying into the main faultline in British politics, not the old left/ right divide of the Tory and Labour parties. Brexit has not been settled by the referendum but has become an ongoing and probably permanent fixture of the UK political landscape.
As demonstrated by the Richmond by-election, people are even willing to override party loyalties, personal popularity of MPs and much else besides purely because they do not agree with a candidate's view on Brexit.
Since 48% of the populace voted Pro-EU, this could one day coalesce into a formidable block alongside Pro-Leave, that could compete not only for the votes of hardliners on either side but people open to shifting and the millions who never voted in the Referendum but are going to face the backlash of it now.
It is a significant headache for both of the main parties at a fragile economic time.
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Earlier this month in Austria, a Eurosceptic presidential candidate lost to a Pro-EU one. In the aftermath of the vote, the former candidate tried to moderate his tone and claimed that he did support EU membership.
From the Guardian:
Austria rejects far-right candidate Norbert Hofer in presidential election
Pro-European Alexander Van der Bellen increases his lead after narrow win in May election was annulled
Austria has decisively rejected the possibility of the European Union getting its first far-right head of state, instead electing a strongly pro-European former leader of the Green party as its next president.
Alexander Van der Bellen, who ran as an independent, increased his lead over the Freedom party candidate, Norbert Hofer, by a considerable margin from the original vote in May, which was annulled by the constitutional court because of sloppy vote-counting...
The Freedom party secretary Herbert Kickl, who acted as Hofer’s campaign manager, said: “The bottom line is it didn’t quite work out. In this case the establishment – which pitched in once again to block, to stonewall and to prevent renewal – has won.”
Werner Kogler, a delegate for the Green party, described the result as a “small global turning of the tide in these uncertain, not to say hysterical and even stupid times”...
In the wake of the first exit polls on Sunday evening, many politicians speculated that Britain’s vote to leave the European Union may have played a role in boosting Van der Bellen’s lead from May.
Hofer had promised to call a referendum on EU membership if the bloc of states took further steps towards integration, while also stating that he believed Austria was better off in the EU. Van der Bellen ran his second campaign on a decisively pro-European ticket, with posters proclaiming that a vote for him meant “No to Öxit”.
Reinhold Lopatka, party leader of the centre-right ÖVP, speculated on Sunday night that fears about Austria’s EU membership would most likely have played a role in winning Van der Bellen votes in regional districts that profited from European Union subsidies. According to an ORF poll, 65% of Van der Bellen’s voters had cited his pro-EU attitudes as the main reason for rooting for the candidate.
See:Pro-European Alexander Van der Bellen increases his lead after narrow win in May election was annulled
Austria has decisively rejected the possibility of the European Union getting its first far-right head of state, instead electing a strongly pro-European former leader of the Green party as its next president.
Alexander Van der Bellen, who ran as an independent, increased his lead over the Freedom party candidate, Norbert Hofer, by a considerable margin from the original vote in May, which was annulled by the constitutional court because of sloppy vote-counting...
The Freedom party secretary Herbert Kickl, who acted as Hofer’s campaign manager, said: “The bottom line is it didn’t quite work out. In this case the establishment – which pitched in once again to block, to stonewall and to prevent renewal – has won.”
Werner Kogler, a delegate for the Green party, described the result as a “small global turning of the tide in these uncertain, not to say hysterical and even stupid times”...
In the wake of the first exit polls on Sunday evening, many politicians speculated that Britain’s vote to leave the European Union may have played a role in boosting Van der Bellen’s lead from May.
Hofer had promised to call a referendum on EU membership if the bloc of states took further steps towards integration, while also stating that he believed Austria was better off in the EU. Van der Bellen ran his second campaign on a decisively pro-European ticket, with posters proclaiming that a vote for him meant “No to Öxit”.
Reinhold Lopatka, party leader of the centre-right ÖVP, speculated on Sunday night that fears about Austria’s EU membership would most likely have played a role in winning Van der Bellen votes in regional districts that profited from European Union subsidies. According to an ORF poll, 65% of Van der Bellen’s voters had cited his pro-EU attitudes as the main reason for rooting for the candidate.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016...pes-first-far/
Mr Mahdalik singled out Nigel Farage, the former Ukip leader, for contributing to the party’s defeat after he said on Fox News on Friday that Mr Hofer would hold a referendum on Austria leaving the European Union.
“That didn’t help us, it hindered us,” he said, saying that an overwhelming majority of Austrians support EU membership.
Casting his vote in his home town of Pinkafeld earlier on Sunday, Mr Hofer ruled out a referendum and said: “I would ask Mr Farage not to interfere in Austria’s internal affairs.”
“It is not something I want. We need to build a stronger union,” he said. He said he would oppose Turkish membership or further centralisation of the EU.
“That didn’t help us, it hindered us,” he said, saying that an overwhelming majority of Austrians support EU membership.
Casting his vote in his home town of Pinkafeld earlier on Sunday, Mr Hofer ruled out a referendum and said: “I would ask Mr Farage not to interfere in Austria’s internal affairs.”
“It is not something I want. We need to build a stronger union,” he said. He said he would oppose Turkish membership or further centralisation of the EU.
Meanwhile, in the U.K., France, Italy, Greece, support for the E.U. is not exactly tip top. They don't appreciate their ruined economies, migrant hoards and other wonderful things the E.U. has done for them.
Italy?
The constitutional referendum in Italy was not about the EU at all. Pro-EU'ers voted on both sides.
People are merely speculating that this domestic upheaval, indirectly speaking, could lead to a strength in voting numbers for the Eurosceptic Five Star Movement. That's a big if, since the "No" campaign includes Pro-Europeans and is a very eclectic coalition.
If the Five Star were to gain a majority in a future parliamentary election (another huge 'if'), they would like to call a referendum on Eurozone membership for Italy (note, not EU membership itself).
Italy is not the UK. I think its very unlikely that Italians would want to leave the Euro currency and revert back to the 'lira'.
So this speculation relies on no solid foundations - only projections about possible futures determined by a huge series of "ifs" - (1) if support for the Five Star grows (2) if they manage (unlikely) to gain a majority in next year's elections (far more likely that if they do ever get into government, another big if, it will be a coalition and so they will fail to have the capacity to carry through on any referendum pledge) (3) if they then hold a referendum on *Eurozone* (not EU) membership of the single currency and (4) if Italians decide to back this, which would be enormously complicated for a country which already has a banking crisis and political unrest.
So, we cannot in point of fact read anything as to the future from this domestic defeat for Renzi over his proposed constitutional reforms.
In Austria you had a different set-up: a Pro-EU presidential candidate running up against a Eurosceptic far right candidate from a party originally founded by a Nazi. And Eurosceptic lost, despite claiming closer to the referendum that he actually supports the EU but would simply call an Oexit referendum to leave if any further push for integration was going to happen in the future. Even on that conditional basis, he couldn't pull through because voters suspected he was Eurosceptic at heart.
So in Austria you had a situation where voters actually made a decision based upon a candidate's views on the EU. It was actually about the EU, in part.
In Italy, you had a purely domestic decision over internal constitutional reform. This could have indirect ramifications for the wider EU, but not necessarily.
Never in the field of human history has so much been made out of so little by so many....
As if the revolutionary step of Italy deciding to do absolutely nothing and leave its constitution as it is couldn't be any more epic than it already is, and once you overlook the reality that most Italians support the Euro, people seem to be blissfully unaware of the fact that the Italian constitution does not permit referendums to be held concerning international treaties – a constitutional ban that includes Italy’s membership of the eurozone.
So even in the exceedingly unlikely event that the Five Star came to power with a majority government and intended to hold a referendum on the euro, they would first have to hold a referendum on changing the constitution to enable a referendum on the Euro to be held. (No kidding!) As we have all witnessed, getting Italians to vote in favour of amending their constitution is a rather difficult and complicated task.
Even RT - yes Russia Today, the Kremlin mouth piece - has published a "let's-have-a-major-reality-check" article which states plainly and factually that Italy is nowhere near leaving the Eurozone, let alone the EU:
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/369342-it...reforms-renzi/
No, Italy is not about to leave the euro
...
As the EU observes, in thrall, the bottom line is that Italy is not anywhere near a referendum to leave the eurozone, not to mention the EU, as most Italians are Europhiles (except when it comes to the German domination of the ECB).
Foreign journalists, especially Brits and Americans, are getting themselves all tied up in a great big hoo-ha over this which, I daresay, is more likely to reflect their own insecurities than those of Italians....
As the EU observes, in thrall, the bottom line is that Italy is not anywhere near a referendum to leave the eurozone, not to mention the EU, as most Italians are Europhiles (except when it comes to the German domination of the ECB).
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Atman
Member
Simply put no. In order to survive the EU would have to merge into a sort of "United States of Europe", and given the current political climate that is extremely unlikely to happen. Greece, Portugal, Spain, and all the other member states who have had to forcibly swallow the German medicine of austerity, have figured out what the downside to having no control over your own currency is. Even if the crisis was able to resolve itself without these countries abandoning the Euro (a situation which seems less and less likely as time goes on), I think the political support would be strong enough among the populations of these countries for at least a few of them to abandon the whole project of a shared currency. Merkel could of course end her push for austerity, and perhaps save the whole project, but given that her friends at Deutsche Bank are currently burning to the ground, this too seems extremely unlikely. Instead, populist-right parties will probably begin to start winning elections, and subsequently abandoning both the EU, and (if they use the currency) the euro. In particularly scary cases, we may seem some actual neo-Fascists form government for the first time since WWII (ex: Golden Dawn in Greece).