Guess the result of the EU referendum!

I thought it might be fun to put forward our predictions, and see who gets closest.

To keep it simple, just say what % of the vote you think will be to remain in the EU.

Me: 60% remain.

What referendum? It seems like they're doing that all day lol

I think it will be close honestly. 51% leave and 49% remain. (Leave definitely has the momentum at the moment).

I take it you mean the UK?

Why is leaving seen as a good thing?

Expect the Leave side to come out with 55% vs. 45% due to the large number of undecided voters and recognizing the surge in the Brexit camp in recent days.

I would suggest 52% stay but as the stupid factor is greater than that... say 5% ...Idiots could decide the result.

what a geat way to decide important issues.?

Rick O'Shez said:

To keep it simple, just say what % of the vote you think will be to remain in the EU.

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Why limit the voting to the boring and dismissible options?

How about my vote, political mayhem? The losers will scream and protest, the winners will gloat and get rich.

That's my vote. Perhaps because I am a cynical observer of USA political machinations, and assume that Brits and other "olde Europeans" aren't that different.
Tom

LuisDantas said:

Why is leaving seen as a good thing?

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Very simply the arguments is that the UK would regain Soverignty that it had to give up so the EU could make laws to regulate the common market and have free trade and economic integration within the EUs borders. Virtually everything is an extension of that.

One of the big ones is the fear of immigration that comes from having the free movement of labour and this is a major argument from the right. This seems to be producing a lot of support for the leave side right now. Another part of the rights argument is the EU legislation is simply "red tape" and therefore makes businesses inefficient or the costs of EU membership versus trade Benifits.

The left would argue leaving would mean we are no longer committed to austerity as part of EU fiscal rules, the dubious reality that a free trade bloc probably cannot be reformed for social justice or progressive ends and that we would be a signatory of the divisive TTIP trade agreement between the EU and the U.S. However the "left leave" arguments have not received much attention in the media.

I will probably vote remain as the likely short term effects of a "brexit" will produce an economic shock, stock market turmoil and probably a realignment in the government further to the right. It could cause serious problems within the UK itself because Scotland is strongly pro-Europe and may demand a second independence referendum if we leave the EU so it stays a member. There is also a vague threat that it could lead to the break up of the EU with the rise of the far right or may restart problems in Ireland (If the UK left the North would leave with us whilst the south would be independent and in the EU so we would have to close the border and that could create tensions there)

If it were a safer option I might vote to leave on the lefts issues but it is a very vague and long term set of objections that may only look good on paper.

But it's a right ******* mess either way with both sides low on exact details, a lot of scaremongering and a fair amount of blatant lies. You have sites for fact checking what is being said. MPs in Parliament have threatened to resist a successful leave vote as the referendum result is not binding- so right there is a constitutional crisis waiting to happen. Even if we stay in the EU it may be ugly with the current PM being forced out, etc.

Donald Trump also plans to visit the UK in the run up to the referendum. I can only guess what that will do to the result. Yikes!

I am about to vote (against the Constitutional "rock-like" clauses) for Brazil to split itself, so I will refrain from making a judgement on the issue. I can hardly claim any knowledge of the relevant factors anyway.

Still, it is always sad to see people give weight to worries about sovereignity and immigration. We all should get used to perceiving sovereignity as the harmful delusion that it will always be, and welcome immigration to the best of our abilities (even as we watch our own birth rates) in order to promote both peace and sustainability.

LuisDantas said:

I am about to vote (against the Constitutional "rock-like" clauses) for Brazil to split itself, so I will refrain from making a judgement on the issue. I can hardly claim any knowledge of the relevant factors anyway.

Still, it is always sad to see people give weight to worries about sovereignity and immigration. We all should get used to perceiving sovereignity as the harmful delusion that it will always be, and welcome immigration to the best of our abilities (even as we watch our own birth rates) in order to promote both peace and sustainability.

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I haven't heard about the referdunmn in Brazil but you're welcome to fill me in.

It is sad that the immigration issue has got so much attention. In fairness, there are deeper economic insecurities at work over fears for jobs, etc and people are "hurting" with the recession, austerity, unemployment, insecurity and personal debt and many being left behind financially in the good times as well as the bad. Nor has integration been easy with a lot of friction (though I'm less informed on this). It's not surprising people want to lash out but it's still pretty disturbing. Having the referendumn opened a pandora's box and We could use some real political heavy weights to try and stabilise this honestly. This could simply be determined by whether or not remain voters turn out on polling day.

Laika said:

I haven't heard about the referdunmn in Brazil but you're welcome to fill me in.

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We hold mayor elections this October. And we are in an oddly childish political climate, with lots of people feeling fanatically scared of losing the Worker's Party rather corrupt protection but many more people tired and sick of being the target of so much political manipulation and abuse.

Therefore, there are those (admitedly not too many) who are raising an unofficial vote for the separation of the three southern states. Being personally convinced that Brazil is simply not nearly capable of managing itself as a whole, I am voting for the partition. Hopefully that will be a start for learning not to feel by turns naively hopeful and cynically mistrusting of our own elected representatives.

It is sad that the immigration issue has got so much attention. In fairness, there are deeper economic insecurities at work over fears for jobs, etc and people are "hurting" with the recession, austerity, unemployment, insecurity and personal debt and many being left behind financially in the good times as well as the bad. Nor has integration been easy with a lot of friction (though I'm less informed on this). It's not surprising people want to lash out but it's still pretty disturbing. Having the referendumn opened a pandora's box and We could use some real political heavy weights to try and stabilise this honestly. This could simply be determined by whether or not remain voters turn out on polling day.

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Do you think political leaders, being a handful of specific people addressing millions at a time, can possibly make much of a difference?

It seems to me that it is perhaps worse if they do. After all, that would be an entirely unreasonable expectation to have, and they would pretty much have to resort to demagoguery or worse.

Big societies take a lot of effort to truly work - and most of that work comes from the good will of the street level people, and is demanded that much more as population levels grow.

I think birth rates (but not immigration) are the one right-wing politics worry that I find worth listening to.

LuisDantas said:

We hold mayor elections this October. And we are in an oddly childish political climate, with lots of people feeling fanatically scared of losing the Worker's Party rather corrupt protection but many more people tired and sick of being the target of so much political manipulation and abuse.

Therefore, there are those (admitedly not too many) who are raising an unofficial vote for the separation of the three southern states. Being personally convinced that Brazil is simply not nearly capable of managing itself as a whole, I am voting for the partition. Hopefully that will be a start for learning not to feel by turns naively hopeful and cynically mistrusting of our own elected representatives.


Do you think political leaders, being a handful of specific people addressing millions at a time, can possibly make much of a difference?

It seems to me that it is perhaps worse if they do. After all, that would be an entirely unreasonable expectation to have, and they would pretty much have to resort to demagoguery or worse.

Big societies take a lot of effort to truly work - and most of that work comes from the good will of the street level people, and is demanded that much more as population levels grow.

I think birth rates (but not immigration) are the one right-wing politics worry that I find worth listening to.

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Thanks for that.

Leaders cannot really change the climate but they can steer the population and direct their passions in both more destructive or constructive directions. We need a calm voice who tells people things are difficult and doesn't skirt round the complexities but with a deep confidence that we can get through it. If Someone like that was on the leave side and spelled out the changes we would make or on the remain side saying how the EU can be reformed it would change the landscape quite a bit. At the moment it is as you put it: a childish political climate and everyone for themselves. No one really has any control over this thing and it appears the people are voting with their hearts not with their heads. This will end badly if someone doesn't stand up and start making some really good speeches which both move and inform.

However leadership is something people can do on the ground without it necessarily being elites. If local activists take the iniative and get out the vote or simply get people informed that would still be good overall. There may well be some out there in the major cities but I live in a rural area so I wouldn't see them. When I go out you see "leave" posters everywhere on peoples windows, signposts, etc. you don't see that in elections so the issue resonates somehow. I feel pretty certain this area will vote leave as that fits with election results for UKIP and BNP here as well.

Leave 52% Remain 48%

Rick O'Shez said:

I thought it might be fun to put forward our predictions, and see who gets closest.

To keep it simple, just say what % of the vote you think will be to remain in the EU.

Me: 60% remain.

Click to expand...

I reckon Leave is going to edge the vote by a few percent

Terrywoodenpic said:

what a geat way to decide important issues.?

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It's rather arbitrary, but then so are many of the decisions made by those twisty-turny, game-playing MPs.

columbus said:

Why limit the voting to the boring and dismissible options?
How about my vote, political mayhem? The losers will scream and protest, the winners will gloat and get rich.

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I've already done a postal vote and there were only two options, leave or remain - no opportunity to vote for "mayhem" unfortunately. They could have included "don't know" but that would have won by a large majority.

But if it ends up inconclusive, perhaps that will need to another English civil war, King Cameron and his cavaliers versus Farage and his round-heads. The Welsh, Scots and Irish would change allegiances on a regular basis of course.

On the question of immigration.... if there was no immigration for the next 25 years the population would still grow in favour of the recent influx of people from eastern Europe and the middle east and north Africa. They have a far higher birth rate than more established citizens.
This will occur, In or out of the EU.

Terrywoodenpic said:

On the question of immigration.... if there was no immigration for the next 25 years the population would still grow in favour of the recent influx of people from eastern Europe and the middle east and north Africa. They have a far higher birth rate than more established citizens.
This will occur, In or out of the EU.

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Well, I think that should be avoided as well... but I suppose people simply react differently to excessive yet organic, gradual population growth as opposed to sudden immigration.