What a great theory: those hurricanes are not natural disaster

In this new theory by Crichton: those hurricanes etc aren't natural disasters at all. They are the creations of global warming activists - eco-maniacs desperate to publicise the case for controlling emissions of carbon dioxide. To make sure you get his point, Crichton adds a 32-page footnote documenting his own conviction that global warming is an unscientific scare. What about the contrary worldwide consensus of scientists that global warming is a man-made disaster in the making? Crichton's answer: "If it's consensus, it isn't science. If it's science, it isn't consensus." As I suppose in the old consensus that the earth is flat.
The well-endowed think tank, the American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy, honoured Crichton with an invitation to Washington to address its members on science policy in the 21st Century. The point of that was to embrace Crichton's attack on what he calls the pseudo-science of global warming.
The sceptics on global warming needed this kind of reinforcement. They have mostly been keeping quiet after the ferocity of Katrina and Rita, widely blamed in the press on the unusually hot waters of the Gulf. Al Gore, in a rousing "action now" speech that impressed business leaders at the Clinton summit in New York recently, pointed out that since the 1970s, hurricanes both in the Atlantic and Pacific have increased in intensity by about 50%.

Source:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/4319574.stm

The Truth:

In a departure from normal practice on this site, this post is a commentary on a piece of out-and-out fiction (unlike most of the other posts which deal with a more subtle kind). Michael Crichton's new novel "State of Fear" is about a self-important NGO hyping the science of the global warming to further the ends of evil eco-terrorists. The inevitable conclusion of the book is that global warming is a non-problem. A lesson for our times maybe? Unfortunately, I think not.

Like the recent movie "The Day After Tomorrow", the novel addresses real scientific issues and controversies, but is similarly selective (and occasionally mistaken) about the basic science. I will discuss a selection of the global warming-related issues that are raised in between the car chases, shoot-outs, cannibalistic rites and assorted derring-do. The champion of Crichton's scientific view is a MIT academic-turned-undercover operative who clearly runs intellectual rings around other characters. The issues are raised as conversations and Q and A sessions between him (and other 'good guys') and two characters; an actor (not a very clever chap) and a lawyer (a previously duped innocent), neither of whom know much about the science.

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http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=74

The thing with global warming is that the earth is a mighty old place and human history is not long enough to say that the current state of warming is not just part of the normal large scale cycle.
We can say we're contributing to it and try and limit what we do, but in the end we can't be sure that if we all dropped dead tomorrow it would stop.

the biggest problem is that one change causes a cascade effect... changing other systems around it. Polar ice caps melt, the influx of cold fresh water causes changes in the flow of ocean currents wich in turn alters contenental climates wich in turn cause the ice caps to melt faster... and so on...

The Earth is frankly a more complex and interconnected system than we can adiquately predict and manage. We know for a fact that our actions are doing SOMETHING to the environment.. Ozone hole anyone? Is it the soul cause or just an accelerant like fuel on a fire? Does it really matter?
Can we really afford to not make our lives more sustainable?

Australia is sad to say a perfect example... salinization due to poor water management is wreaking havoc on the environment and thus on the ecconomic viability of the whole contenent.
Australia is thankfully realizing the situation it is in and begining to do something about it.

wa:do

painted wolf said:

the biggest problem is that one change causes a cascade effect... changing other systems around it. Polar ice caps melt, the influx of cold fresh water causes changes in the flow of ocean currents wich in turn alters contenental climates wich in turn cause the ice caps to melt faster... and so on...

The Earth is frankly a more complex and interconnected system than we can adiquately predict and manage. We know for a fact that our actions are doing SOMETHING to the environment.. Ozone hole anyone? Is it the soul cause or just an accelerant like fuel on a fire? Does it really matter?
Can we really afford to not make our lives more sustainable?

Australia is sad to say a perfect example... salinization due to poor water management is wreaking havoc on the environment and thus on the ecconomic viability of the whole contenent.
Australia is thankfully realizing the situation it is in and begining to do something about it.

wa:do

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But then we're being idiots in other areas, so we're balancing out any good we do with a different kind of idiocy.

painted wolf said:

the biggest problem is that one change causes a cascade effect... changing other systems around it. Polar ice caps melt, the influx of cold fresh water causes changes in the flow of ocean currents wich in turn alters contenental climates wich in turn cause the ice caps to melt faster... and so on...

The Earth is frankly a more complex and interconnected system than we can adiquately predict and manage. We know for a fact that our actions are doing SOMETHING to the environment.. Ozone hole anyone? Is it the soul cause or just an accelerant like fuel on a fire? Does it really matter?
Can we really afford to not make our lives more sustainable?

Australia is sad to say a perfect example... salinization due to poor water management is wreaking havoc on the environment and thus on the ecconomic viability of the whole contenent.
Australia is thankfully realizing the situation it is in and begining to do something about it.

wa:do

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Well said, Paintedwolf;

great post.

I will always view mankind as a 'blunderer' as regards Mother Earth and nature. We humans think we are so clever - and yet, I would say we haven't much of a clue. We go around artificially altering nature (ridding species of plants, and various insects using awful chemicals), and then look amazed some twenty or thirty years later when the impact of our actions hit us.

Your "the biggest problem is that one change causes a cascade effect... changing other systems around it." Is, I think one of the most important, and yet, sadly the least listened to truisms about Earth. I think that those who do not see the damage to the ozone layer, and the consequences of such don't see it, because they don't want to; it would interfere with their life style, monetary interest, whatever. Lends itself rather well to the expression "There are none so blind as they who will not see".

its true, Australia faces a great number of eccological problems... Uranium mining, many of the old mines are terribly contaminated... deforestation which exagerates problems with salinization and soil loss and habitat loss for Australia's unique flora and fauna... introduced animals that run rampent over the landscape...

Few contenents have as many extreme challenges to face. Unfortunatly many nations and many contenents are catching up. China is facing them on a massive scale... and those in the USA who think they are immune to the environmental problems of a place so far away are mistaken. Chinese dust storms that carry pollutants and viruses carry them accross the Pacific Ocean and into the North American contenent... Viruses, Heavy metles, chemicals and other pollutants have been found in samples taken of the dust that reaches the USA.

there is no place on Earth that is untouched by the actions of everyone elce.

wa:do

I guess we'll get used to it like the acid rain in the northeast U.S.: bigger huricanes and the sort of forest fires of the conceded need for them anyway in a new distant natural past. But why do we get used to the wars that happened also through the history of mankind.

I admit that my knowledge of global warming is quite limited. I am not sure what to believe, so I do not take a stance for or against it. However, I do know that the air I breathe is not very good for my lungs, and that is a result of human invention.

The problem as I see it is that we have a lot of waste. I draw inspiration from Nature, and see no waste there. Nature has a way of using all of the byproducts of every process, and I feel that we should aim to imitate this so we can live in harmony with the Earth.

Oh, the global warming problem won't last long. We'll enter the next ice age in due time. The sphere wouldn't have lasted as long as it has without an assortment of checks and balances. The side-effects are not necessarily things that humans are likely to take pleasure in, but hey, it's between our comfort and the planet's survival. Give it another century or two at the most, and the global temperature's going to drop like a kid going into sugarcrash mode. Dzzzzz-dzzzz, dzzzzzzzzzzzzz...put-put..........shwoooooooooooOOOOOOOO-BOOM! Just as the current trend's giving us more rainfall than we need or want, you can expect the monsoons to practically shut down overnight if the ice age moves in as quickly as some scientists are predicting. Any culture that relies on them'd better industrialize while they can, or they're pretty much toast.

Fascist Christ said:

I admit that my knowledge of global warming is quite limited. I am not sure what to believe, so I do not take a stance for or against it. However, I do know that the air I breathe is not very good for my lungs, and that is a result of human invention.

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I was born in 1949; near enough on the equator. As a child, I wore something on my head, to stop the heat from getting to me - but never thought of ultra-violet light skin related problems, neither did my Parents - nor anyone who lived there.

Now, living in England, if I go out in an overcast sky, I cannot stay ouside without skin protection for more than 30 minutes.

The rise in cases of Asthma is out of proportin with any historical data.

believe it, we are poluting the atmosphere every minute, destroying the Ozone layer - and unfortunately, shrub (OK for a brit to use the name ?) says that he will not pull back the reins on polution......

Some good advice to up and coming scientists: study glaciers. You'll be able to retire into a generous talk-show circuit.

we certenly are not 'used to' acid rain here in New Hampshire or many other places in New England... as our ecconomy depends heavily on our ability to draw tourist to our wild areas we miss every tree and poisoned lake.

And not just for the money... :149:

wa:do

world nonpotent said:

I guess we'll get used to it like the acid rain in the northeast U.S.: bigger huricanes and the sort of forest fires of the conceded need for them anyway in a new distant natural past. But why do we get used to the wars that happened also through the history of mankind.

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From what we see over here in reports on your forest fires - and we hear a lot about them because you're borrowing our CFA people to help you cope - a lot of your big issues come from areas that have been planted with eucalypts. What would possess you people to plant them is beyond me...nasty, nasty stuff in a fire.

lady_lazarus said:

From what we see over here in reports on your forest fires - and we hear a lot about them because you're borrowing our CFA people to help you cope - a lot of your big issues come from areas that have been planted with eucalypts. What would possess you people to plant them is beyond me...nasty, nasty stuff in a fire.

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well, my guess is that those who seeded eucalypts in those areas weren't thinking to themselves "what's the most flammable plant/flora we can install here to promote forest fires...."

we need to take care of our planet better. it's dying a slow death.

Fascist Christ said:

I admit that my knowledge of global warming is quite limited. I am not sure what to believe, so I do not take a stance for or against it. However, I do know that the air I breathe is not very good for my lungs, and that is a result of human invention.

The problem as I see it is that we have a lot of waste. I draw inspiration from Nature, and see no waste there. Nature has a way of using all of the byproducts of every process, and I feel that we should aim to imitate this so we can live in harmony with the Earth.

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Strangely enough, that is called recycling...:biglaugh: (sorry)

michel said:

Strangely enough, that is called recycling...:biglaugh: (sorry)

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Actually, I found the comment insightful. The planet has bounced back from more than a few mass extinctions and I see little reason to doubt its ability to do so again - just without us and the myriad species we failed to nurture.

unfortunatly the te species don't seem to be able to bounce so well.
from a practicle stand point we need to be more worried about OUR ability to cope with environmental collapse.

wa:do

michel said:

I was born in 1949; near enough on the equator.

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Which way did the water swirl down the bathtub drain?

If there is anything I've learned in my short life, it's that the human race doesn't know CRAP!

- financial analysts can't predict the stock market
- weatherman can't predict the weather
- storm trackers and seismographers can't anticipate natural disasters

The only thing humans seem to be good at is hindsight! Oh, OF COURSE the Nazi's were bad. OF COURSE slavery was bad. OF COURSE the earth was flat.

Now we're so convinced about global warming, even though the most people know about it is what they saw in Al Gore's movie, which NO scientist will stand by as factual. The truth about global warming is that there IS no consensus, but it's obvious that there is a lot of politics going on AROUND it. Once again, the human race is speaking out of its butt.

Are there things wrong with the climate? Yes. But people don't realize how miniscule our impact on the weather is, in general. Is the warming of the planet an exception?