I am curious as to this horrible track record you speak of. Paul Krugman's predictions about interest-rates on bonds have been dead on, when all the inflation hawks were squawking. He stated from the beginning that the Stimulus Plan was not large enough and that it would not restore the economy.
I stated from the beginning that the stimulus plan was way too large (ie, it should be zero) & that its cost would be a damper on the economy.
How would anyone know who is right since one cannot do a controlled experiment? I speculate that he holds his beliefs for the same reasons I do,
ie, values rather than analysis. He likes big gov't. I don't.
Why should I trust the theory and language of modern economic theories, which told us that a crisis of this magnitude would not happen and that if we let the free-market be, everything would be peachy? Keynesianism is especially relevant today.
First, economics is much like religion - it's not wise to trust any economic theories which aren't well grounded in evidence in the real world.
An economist friend became disillusioned with the field when he noticed you could build models & tweak the assumptions to prove just about any theory.
Second, a question is are begged: Did we actually have a free market...or was it a chimera? The big crash started with the failure Fannie & Freddie, both
created & run by the federal gov't. (I'm ignoring the earlier & smaller crash in 2001, when business became less expansive & commercial real estate started
losing value.) Then banks who made risky residential loans began failing. These were highly regulated banks, who made many loans at the behest of federal
regulators, who wanted more lending to marginal borrowers & made red lining illegal. Is this a free market? Only partially so. The kind of regulation imposed
on the lending market actually increased instability.
Finally, system response of a laissez faire market is self regulating, but not without cycles & instabilities. Good regulation should ease those risks, but the
wrong regulation can create problems. Subsidies of the housing market caused inflated prices, while low down payments let buyers have high payment to
earning ration, but with no equity. This model is stable as long as we have inflation & economic growth. But it risks catastrophic losses if the economy has
a hiccup.
Will an interview from 2006 do?[/youtube]
By then, housing prices were stagnating or falling (depending upon region). Dang near everyone paying attention knew it. Moreover, Krugman provided no
analysis for any of his opinions....just passing judgment. (Btw, I agree with him that the "Bush tax cuts" were poorly designed. Likely, our reasoning differs.
I'd say that marginal rates weren't lowered enuf & too many subsidies in the form of deductions remained to really spur productivity.)
Do you know that you're a lot of work to respond to? It's a lot easier when someone just calls me a greedy ignorant fool - less response is needed.