The next Civil War

[F1fan]

An expert in studying civil wars around the planet predicts the USA is on the brink of a civil war. She said this tends to happen in nations where there is a strong political element that is becoming more and more extreme, and the members are finding themselves threatened to become a minority of the population. These two elements define the current GOP and conservative voters.

She also stated that the looming civil war in the USA won't be delineated by state lines, but ideological lines. So there won't be defined, armed sides fighting like we are used to, or expect. What she stated will be a more clandestine war, attacks on prominent people and bombings against organizations. The FBI is seeing warning signs of an increase in homemade bombs, and more bomb making videos and instructions being shared online. The Jan 6 attacks has been the largest example of this civil war.

Should law enforcement do more work to investigate people buying materials that could be used for bombs, and do more to investigate threats by more angry and extremist people?

 

[anna.]

Should law enforcement do more work to investigate people buying materials that could be used for bombs, and do more to investigate threats by more angry and extremist people?

The water becomes clouded when members of law enforcement are members of militias and groups willing to overthrow a valid election and storm the nation's capital. When legislators are culpable in spreading disinformation and sowing doubt about the validity of our current president. When judges hand down soft sentences for insurrectionists.

I see a bigger threat from a GOP that's actively working at the state level to set things in place to manipulate future elections, and from a judiciary that may quite likely enable them in doing so.

The Future of Our Democracy Will Come Down To State Legislatures

 

[pearl]

I see a bigger threat from a GOP that's actively working at the state level to set things in place to manipulate future elections, and from a judiciary that may quite likely enable them in doing so.

I think you are absolutely correct, that's why it is so very important that voters get involved with local elections. Unfortunately, all too many don't bother to vote is these, up to now, seemingly unimportant and boring elections. Our last local election a candidate for city council knocked on the door looking for votes and was rather taken back when I asked for his party affiliation.

 

[Nakosis]

I actually think we need better leadership with an agenda to find common common ground if the idea is to avoid it. To encourage the majority to distance themselves from extremists not embrace them.

Most folks want the same basic things. Just need to find a common ground way to get there.

 

[Twilight Hue]

An expert in studying civil wars around the planet predicts the USA is on the brink of a civil war. She said this tends to happen in nations where there is a strong political element that is becoming more and more extreme, and the members are finding themselves threatened to become a minority of the population. These two elements define the current GOP and conservative voters.

She also stated that the looming civil war in the USA won't be delineated by state lines, but ideological lines. So there won't be defined, armed sides fighting like we are used to, or expect. What she stated will be a more clandestine war, attacks on prominent people and bombings against organizations. The FBI is seeing warning signs of an increase in homemade bombs, and more bomb making videos and instructions being shared online. The Jan 6 attacks has been the largest example of this civil war.

Should law enforcement do more work to investigate people buying materials that could be used for bombs, and do more to investigate threats by more angry and extremist people?

It's a poor way to fight a civil war. One still needs a capable army and the logistical means in order to engage its enemies.

If any government starts getting intrusive and goes into surveillance state mode on its citizens investigating anyone and anything threatening it's power, I'm joining the other side of that horrid recipe.

 

[Kooky]

I don't think they're on the brink yet. The original American Civil War happened when the Southern slavers saw the demographic and political tide turning against them, and a longterm future where there would be an abolitionist majority in Congress.

Political organizations tend to escalate to violence when they are either in a position of overwhelming power, or when they feel they have exhausted all alternatives to enact change to their benefit. So far, the Republican party still holds a comfortable majority in a lot of US States, and have enough of a lever on legislative power that they don't have to fear sinking into irrelevancy.

One thing that I will predict however, is an increase in political violence of the "lone gunman" variety, also known as stochastic terrorism. A civil war would have to be organized and engineered from the top down, but singular acts of violence and murder can just spring up spontaneously when political outrage boils over, and can be trivially disavowed (see also: 6th Janurary being propagandized by conservative US media as a false flag operation).

 

[Twilight Hue]

The water becomes clouded when members of law enforcement are members of militias and groups willing to overthrow a valid election and storm the nation's capital. When legislators are culpable in spreading disinformation and sowing doubt about the validity of our current president. When judges hand down soft sentences for insurrectionists.

I see a bigger threat from a GOP that's actively working at the state level to set things in place to manipulate future elections, and from a judiciary that may quite likely enable them in doing so.

The Future of Our Democracy Will Come Down To State Legislatures

There's no one to blame but those that create these types of alleged situations.

Action and reaction plays a major role.

 

[Kooky]

There's no one to blame but those that create these types of alleged situations.

I agree, the Republican establishment is primarily to blame for this.

 

[Nakosis]

I agree, the Republican establishment is primarily to blame for this.

Hell, if only Trump had won right?

 

[Twilight Hue]

I agree, the Republican establishment is primarily to blame for this.

No. It's always the instigators that pushes others to act.

A guess as to who those instigators are?

 

[Kooky]

No. It's always the instigators that pushes others to act.

Exactly. Copious investments by right-wing billionaires have cultivated a well-oiled propaganda machine that has spent the last decade trapping conservative voters in a media environment that constantly coaxes them to be outraged over any small thing, in order to get them fired up to vote for the correct candidates at the ballot box.

The problem is that being immersed in this constant outrage and fear is not only mentally unhealthy, it creates an environment where extreme reactions seem more and more sensible, and empathy and understanding for people from across the aisle, and especially people seen as dangerous (migrants, trans peopl, Muslims, socialists) is being actively excised.

We have already seen a few of them snap and break out into politicized violence, it is no coincidence both stochastic terrorism and neofascist thuggery have been picking up in volume and frequency since the beginning of the Trump presidency.

 

[Nakosis]

It's a poor way to fight a civil war. One still needs a capable army and the logistical means in order to engage its enemies.

If any government starts getting intrusive and goes into surveillance state mode on its citizens investigating anyone and anything threatening it's power, I'm joining the other side of that horrid recipe.

As long as they keep watch on the extremists of both parties. Unfortunately the media tends to portray the extremists as the bulk of the opposing party. So hell, maybe give the extremists of both parties their own state to live in. Let them duke it out. Step out of the way and let them take care of each other. Why let them drag the rest of us into it.

 

[Kooky]

I actually think we need better leadership with an agenda to find common common ground if the idea is to avoid it. To encourage the majority to distance themselves from extremists not embrace them.

What's the common ground between, for example, "Democrats are sneaking Mexican criminals across our borders to populate our nation with stooges to vote for them" and "no they're not, that's not only counterfactual but also literally makes no sense"?*

How sensible is a middle ground between two positions when one side of the debate isn't even based on factual reality?



*) The former is a statement I read almost verbatim on RF, by the way.

 

[icehorse]

I think the GOP is more corrupted than the Dems, but the Dems are plenty corrupt. It seems to me that everyone in DC is convinced that the system is infinitely abusable... which it's not.

As always, my opinion is that we MUST undo the oligarchy. (And I use the term loosely to represent that tiny fraction of the population / corporations that hold so much of our economy's wealth and income.)

My take is that the other 99.9999% of us need to stop squabbling over other issues - at least temporarily - and band to together and reclaim our economy. That single effort would lead to better infrastructure, better education, better healthcare, better wages, lower incarceration rates, a better environment, and so on.

 

[Twilight Hue]

Exactly. Copious investments by right-wing billionaires have cultivated a well-oiled propaganda machine that has spent the last decade trapping conservative voters in a media environment that constantly coaxes them to be outraged over any small thing, in order to get them fired up to vote for the correct candidates at the ballot box.

The problem is that being immersed in this constant outrage and fear is not only mentally unhealthy, it creates an environment where extreme reactions seem more and more sensible, and empathy and understanding for people from across the aisle, and especially people seen as dangerous (migrants, trans peopl, Muslims, socialists) is being actively excised.

We have already seen a few of them snap and break out into politicized violence, it is no coincidence both stochastic terrorism and neofascist thuggery has been picking up in volume and frequency since the beginning of the Trump presidency.

I'm thinking more of the pushy folks who go by fiat rule and mandate as a norm in a Constitutional Republic.

 

[Kooky]

I'm thinking more of the pushy folks who go by fiat rule and mandate as a norm in a Constitutional Republic.

Please elaborate what you mean by the terms fiat rule, mandate, norm, and constitutional republic.

Without that kind of context, your statement is just an incomprehensible word salad to me.

 

[It Aint Necessarily So]

An expert in studying civil wars around the planet predicts the USA is on the brink of a civil war. She said this tends to happen in nations where there is a strong political element that is becoming more and more extreme, and the members are finding themselves threatened to become a minority of the population. These two elements define the current GOP and conservative voters.

She also stated that the looming civil war in the USA won't be delineated by state lines, but ideological lines. So there won't be defined, armed sides fighting like we are used to, or expect. What she stated will be a more clandestine war, attacks on prominent people and bombings against organizations. The FBI is seeing warning signs of an increase in homemade bombs, and more bomb making videos and instructions being shared online. The Jan 6 attacks has been the largest example of this civil war.

I'd say that the Republicans have been fighting a cold war against American values for several decades now, quite successfully, that is just now evolving into terrorism and guerilla warfare. I expect to see something like the Irish religious wars over the next few years - drive-by strikes, snipers, home-made bombs, etc..

Was this the source? Are We Headed for Another Civil War?

 

[Kooky]

As long as they keep watch on the extremists of both parties. Unfortunately the media tends to portray the extremists as the bulk of the opposing party.

They don't have to compose the bulk of a party in order to be politically influential or even dominant within such a party. It suffices that the majority either refuses to rein them in, or actively encourages their extremism without doing anything themselves to mitigate it.

This is how, for example, the AfD went from a moderately conservative anti-EU movement to a Neonazi vanguard party, or how Hungary's FIDESZ went from being a moderate centrist party to becoming, essentially, stooges for an authoritarian wannabe dictator.

 

[lukethethird]

I agree, the Republican establishment is primarily to blame for this.

The Republicans and the Democrats have been united in keeping other parties off the ballots. If there were three or four or more competing parties as in most countries, I doubt the US would be so polarized.

 

[Nakosis]

They don't have to compose the bulk of a party in order to be politically influential or even dominant within such a party. It suffices that the majority either refuses to rein them in, or actively encourages their extremism without doing anything themselves to mitigate it.

Politics is stupid, well not stupid but the vote is everything. Never turn away a potential voter I suppose.