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Probability

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
Every week I enter Menards's contest to win a $1000 shopping spree.
Every week I fail to win. ("Lose" is too negative a word for me.)
Every week there are 2 possible outcomes:
Win
Not win
Every week for the last year or so I have a 50% chance of winning.
The odds against my not-win record are 2^52 to 1.
Clearly, there is a conspiracy against me.

I bet @Polymath257 has some rip'n good yarns about probability.
 

Vinayaka

devotee
Premium Member
Every week I enter Menards's contest to win a $1000 shopping spree.
Every week I fail to win. ("Lose" is too negative a word for me.)
Every week there are 2 possible outcomes:
Win
Not win
Every week for the last year or so I have a 50% chance of winning.
The odds against my not-win record are 2^52 to 1.
Clearly, there is a conspiracy against me.

I bet @Polymath257 has some rip'n good yarns about probability.

I had a logic (aspect of philosophy) prof who once used the same argument as to how he could win at the races. I suspected he believed himself, so I shut up, as I wanted to pass the course. There was an outside chance he was waiting for somebody to have the guts to demonstrate how wrong he was, but I wasn't about to chance that. I didn't place that bet, and as luck would have it, the coin landed on heads, and I passed the course. If it woulda landed on tails I woulda flunked.
 

joe1776

Well-Known Member
The odds are against winning at the race track. I broke even yesterday. It was a good thing too because I needed the money.
 

Altfish

Veteran Member
Every week I enter Menards's contest to win a $1000 shopping spree.
Every week I fail to win. ("Lose" is too negative a word for me.)
Every week there are 2 possible outcomes:
Win
Not win
Every week for the last year or so I have a 50% chance of winning.
The odds against my not-win record are 2^52 to 1.
Clearly, there is a conspiracy against me.

I bet @Polymath257 has some rip'n good yarns about probability.
Maths wasn't your strong subject at school:rolleyes:
 

Ponder This

Well-Known Member
Every week I enter Menards's contest to win a $1000 shopping spree.
Every week I fail to win. ("Lose" is too negative a word for me.)
Every week there are 2 possible outcomes:
Win
Not win
Every week for the last year or so I have a 50% chance of winning.
The odds against my not-win record are 2^52 to 1.
Clearly, there is a conspiracy against me.

I bet @Polymath257 has some rip'n good yarns about probability.

You can turn yourself into a better winner if you enter each week but flip a coin on the side: Heads means you guess that you win and tails means you guess that you don't win. Your odds on the coin flip will let you guess correctly on the outcome 50% of the time. You should see rapid results and hopefully a major boost to your self-esteem (this part is in no way guaranteed)! Flip at your own risk!
 

joe1776

Well-Known Member
You can turn yourself into a better winner if you enter each week but flip a coin on the side: Heads means you guess that you win and tails means you guess that you don't win. Your odds on the coin flip will let you guess correctly on the outcome 50% of the time. You should see rapid results and hopefully a major boost to your self-esteem (this part is in no way guaranteed)! Flip at your own risk!
That makes sense. But if he just keeps playing every week his chances will improve because the law of averages will catch up.
 

PoetPhilosopher

Veteran Member
I got to thinking about something.

I know, it's always a disaster when that happens, but...

The lottery is capitalism and socialism. Capitalism because a lot of your money goes to the state or whomever is in charge of the lottery. Socialism because the winner of the lottery gets a portion of your money and it's kind of like you're also handing some of it over to them too.
 

bobhikes

Nondetermined
Premium Member
Every week I enter Menards's contest to win a $1000 shopping spree.
Every week I fail to win. ("Lose" is too negative a word for me.)
Every week there are 2 possible outcomes:
Win
Not win
Every week for the last year or so I have a 50% chance of winning.
The odds against my not-win record are 2^52 to 1.
Clearly, there is a conspiracy against me.

I bet @Polymath257 has some rip'n good yarns about probability.

Clearly, and it will continue.
 

stvdv

Veteran Member: I Share (not Debate) my POV
Every week for the last year or so I have a 50% chance of winning.
The odds against my not-win record are 2^52 to 1.
When I was 23 I lived in 1 house with 2 other students, every week we did a kind of supermarket lottery (buying all items with specific prices). We were all 3 very good at math, and all 3 always filled in perfect. Those 2 won every time, I won never. After 1 year I decided to never do lottery again

This was a free "lottery", so never losing, but still .. never winning, while the other 2 won constantly:rolleyes:

So. I got the message loud and clear "thou shalt not gamble to win":D

Note: Once there was a woman in great distress, and I and a friend helped her out. The friend always bought a lottery ticket and asked me "you also buy one?". I got a clear feeling "God must be pleased I helped this woman, I think He will let me win the lottery today". Lo and behold, I won. But after that I decided to not do lottery again, and keep the good feeling of winning:D
 

Revoltingest

Pragmatic Libertarian
Premium Member
When I was 23 I lived in 1 house with 2 other students, every week we did a kind of supermarket lottery (buying all items with specific prices). We were all 3 very good at math, and all 3 always filled in perfect. Those 2 won every time, I won never. After 1 year I decided to never do lottery again

This was a free "lottery", so never losing, but still .. never winning, while the other 2 won constantly:rolleyes:

So. I got the message loud and clear "thou shalt not gamble to win":D

Note: Once there was a woman in great distress, and I and a friend helped her out. The friend always bought a lottery ticket and asked me "you also buy one?". I got a clear feeling "God must be pleased I helped this woman, I think He will let me win the lottery today". Lo and behold, I won. But after that I decided to not do lottery again, and keep the good feeling of winning:D
Hmmm....God must be sabotaging my lottery efforts.
 
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