Curious George
Veteran Member
Let it suffice to say that when one earnestly discusses gumballs they are rarely just discussing gumballs.
My questions here concern belief. What constitutes belief. How we acquire belief. How we distinguish belief from knowledge. How we distinguish belief from non-belief.
If we are given a jar of gumballs and then asked whether we believe there an even number of gumballs most of us would say no.
Does this then entail that we believe number of gumballs are not even? Again most would agree, no. We are at a point where the liklihood, from our perception, of either, odd or even, is equal. In that state where we believe neither, while knowing one of the two options must be true we can say we have a belief. We can say that we believe either, even or odd, is possibly correct.
So I am curious. At what point does this change? Say we observe many different colors of gumballs but we note that we only observe two gumballs of each specific color. Is this is evidence enough to push us toward belief?
Perhaps we are given the opinions of people we trust. Say our mother and father. Perhaps we are told that reputable and intelligent men and women believe the number to be even. Is this, paired with our earlier observation, enough for belief?
Perhaps we are even given a demonstration where the balls are dropped one by one, though rather quickly, into the jar. After counting we reach a number, say 42. Is this sufficient?
Now belief that something is or is not the case is mutually exclusive. Perhaps for this reason, we must add another layer of discussion. We must discuss confidence. While we often believe something is or is not the case, our confidence in such beliefs varies dramatically. Sometimes we claim absolute certainty; other times we claim justification of our beliefs rests on the preponderance of the evidence.
Given our gumball scenario, we could say that various bits of evidence increase or decrease the confidence in our belief.
Our confidence becomes most apparent when there are stakes. If our question of whether the number of gumballs is even, is instead viewed as a gamble, it is our confidence in conjunction with the consequence/reward that adjusts whether or not we place the bet.
Even at equal odds if there is no detriment to guessing incorrectly, we will take a guess if the reward is appealing. As the detriment increases, our confidence or lack of confidence in our belief alters our willingness to engage in such a bet. This lack of willingness, however, bears no relation to whether we have a belief or not. Instead, it is a reflection of our confidence in our belief and the consequences/rewards of the bet.
Is that how you see belief? What constitutes belief. How we acquire belief. How we distinguish belief from knowledge. How we distinguish belief from non-belief.
My questions here concern belief. What constitutes belief. How we acquire belief. How we distinguish belief from knowledge. How we distinguish belief from non-belief.
If we are given a jar of gumballs and then asked whether we believe there an even number of gumballs most of us would say no.
Does this then entail that we believe number of gumballs are not even? Again most would agree, no. We are at a point where the liklihood, from our perception, of either, odd or even, is equal. In that state where we believe neither, while knowing one of the two options must be true we can say we have a belief. We can say that we believe either, even or odd, is possibly correct.
So I am curious. At what point does this change? Say we observe many different colors of gumballs but we note that we only observe two gumballs of each specific color. Is this is evidence enough to push us toward belief?
Perhaps we are given the opinions of people we trust. Say our mother and father. Perhaps we are told that reputable and intelligent men and women believe the number to be even. Is this, paired with our earlier observation, enough for belief?
Perhaps we are even given a demonstration where the balls are dropped one by one, though rather quickly, into the jar. After counting we reach a number, say 42. Is this sufficient?
Now belief that something is or is not the case is mutually exclusive. Perhaps for this reason, we must add another layer of discussion. We must discuss confidence. While we often believe something is or is not the case, our confidence in such beliefs varies dramatically. Sometimes we claim absolute certainty; other times we claim justification of our beliefs rests on the preponderance of the evidence.
Given our gumball scenario, we could say that various bits of evidence increase or decrease the confidence in our belief.
Our confidence becomes most apparent when there are stakes. If our question of whether the number of gumballs is even, is instead viewed as a gamble, it is our confidence in conjunction with the consequence/reward that adjusts whether or not we place the bet.
Even at equal odds if there is no detriment to guessing incorrectly, we will take a guess if the reward is appealing. As the detriment increases, our confidence or lack of confidence in our belief alters our willingness to engage in such a bet. This lack of willingness, however, bears no relation to whether we have a belief or not. Instead, it is a reflection of our confidence in our belief and the consequences/rewards of the bet.
Is that how you see belief? What constitutes belief. How we acquire belief. How we distinguish belief from knowledge. How we distinguish belief from non-belief.