Brexit may never happen

[sun rise]

I read two stories about this just a bit ago. One is that Scotland is claiming that invoking Rule 50 needs their approval which they won't get. That seems to be a long shot. That was part of this story about turmoil in the Labour party: http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...our-leader-faces-open-revolt-inside-his-party

The second is much more likely. A Brexit conspiracy theory nails the no-win situation Boris Johnson now finds himself in

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten … the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over – Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession … broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was “never”. When Michael Gove went on and on about “informal negotiations” … why? why not the formal ones straight away? … he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

 

[The Emperor of Mankind]

I read two stories about this just a bit ago. One is that Scotland is claiming that invoking Rule 50 needs their approval which they won't get. That seems to be a long shot. That was part of this story about turmoil in the Labour party: http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...our-leader-faces-open-revolt-inside-his-party

The second is much more likely. A Brexit conspiracy theory nails the no-win situation Boris Johnson now finds himself in

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten … the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over – Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession … broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was “never”. When Michael Gove went on and on about “informal negotiations” … why? why not the formal ones straight away? … he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

I've seen this as well. It's a very interesting take on what has happened. Johnson et al were the ones demanding that we pull the trigger on this so they should be the ones to actually do it - and why not?

 

[Brickjectivity]

The EU single currency was not working out, and Britain would have eventually been caught up in it. EU needs to fix its currency issues among other things. There's more to it than the immediate effects.

 

[Jumi]

The only way to fix the currency issue is to reissue national currencies. The only way to save the EU is to cut down on the bureaucracy.

 

[Rick O'Shez]

Johnson et al were the ones demanding that we pull the trigger on this so they should be the ones to actually do it - and why not?

It will be interesting to see what happens. It feels like there could be unexpected twists and turns further down the road.

 

[Laika]

I read two stories about this just a bit ago. One is that Scotland is claiming that invoking Rule 50 needs their approval which they won't get. That seems to be a long shot. That was part of this story about turmoil in the Labour party: http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-...our-leader-faces-open-revolt-inside-his-party

The second is much more likely. A Brexit conspiracy theory nails the no-win situation Boris Johnson now finds himself in

And as the day wore on, the enormity of that step started to sink in: the markets, Sterling, Scotland, the Irish border, the Gibraltar border, the frontier at Calais, the need to continue compliance with all EU regulations for a free market, re-issuing passports, Brits abroad, EU citizens in Britain, the mountain of legistlation to be torn up and rewritten … the list grew and grew.

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory. Parliament is not bound to commit itself in that same direction.

The Conservative party election that Cameron triggered will now have one question looming over it: will you, if elected as party leader, trigger the notice under Article 50?

Who will want to have the responsibility of all those ramifications and consequences on his/her head and shoulders?

Boris Johnson knew this yesterday, when he emerged subdued from his home and was even more subdued at the press conference. He has been out-maneouvered and check-mated.

If he runs for leadership of the party, and then fails to follow through on triggering Article 50, then he is finished. If he does not run and effectively abandons the field, then he is finished. If he runs, wins and pulls the UK out of the EU, then it will all be over – Scotland will break away, there will be upheaval in Ireland, a recession … broken trade agreements. Then he is also finished. Boris Johnson knows all of this. When he acts like the dumb blond it is just that: an act.

The Brexit leaders now have a result that they cannot use. For them, leadership of the Tory party has become a poison chalice.

When Boris Johnson said there was no need to trigger Article 50 straight away, what he really meant to say was “never”. When Michael Gove went on and on about “informal negotiations” … why? why not the formal ones straight away? … he also meant not triggering the formal departure. They both know what a formal demarche would mean: an irreversible step that neither of them is prepared to take.

We will probably know a bit more after today's session in parliament but it does look a bit weird that they have started back tracking all of a sudden.
I find it very difficult to see how parliament can overturn or ignore the referendum result. Doing that or having a second referendum will result in widespread unrest as it means the leave camp won fair and square and is just going to be ignored. As sturgeon put it the "pre-referendum United Kingdom has ceased to exist" and now we need people to pull together and deal with it. This is a new era in British politics and we need people to pull together and get through this. Reliving that decision will only cause more trouble and undermine our democracy further. We need people to handle this properly and try to avoid further turmoil or panic.

(I suspect we may need a conservative-labour coalition government as this is now a time of national crisis and this cuts accross party lines. We need the best people we can get to do this.)

 

[sun rise]

We will probably know a bit more after today's session in parliament but it does look a bit weird that they have started back tracking all of a sudden.
I find it very difficult to see how parliament can overturn or ignore the referendum result. Doing that or having a second referendum will result in widespread unrest as it means the leave camp won fair and square and is just going to be ignored. As sturgeon put it the "pre-referendum United Kingdom has ceased to exist" and now we need people to pull together and deal with it. This is a new era in British politics and we need people to pull together and get through this. Reliving that decision will only cause more trouble and undermine our democracy further. We need people to handle this properly and try to avoid further turmoil or panic.

(I suspect we may need a conservative-labour coalition government as this is now a time of national crisis and this cuts accross party lines. We need the best people we can get to do this.)

I don't think they'll try to overturn it. They'll drag their feet for a long long time and maybe it will go away or maybe they'll put a deal up for a vote with 'remain' or 'deal' as the options with the deal being so bad that 'remain' will win.

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

The only way to fix the currency issue is to reissue national currencies. The only way to save the EU is to cut down on the bureaucracy.

How small do you want it ?
Brussels employs far fewer people than Westminster, to administer a massively more complex and greater area.

Looked up the figures
Westminster civil service employees 439,323 (2015)

EU equivalent 42,500
made up of Commission 33,000 parliament 6000 secretariat 3500
that is less than 10% of the Westminster figure. between all 28 countries.

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

The MP's are too frightened to loose their seats, to vote down brexit.
they are just chicken.
Had they really wanted to leave there was no need for a referendum they could have voted for it in parliament as parliament is sovereign.

Instead they left it to the population at large, who had no way to judge the pros and cons. And were amenable to the influence of prejudice and hate.
The government copped out.
They are still copping out.
Gutless comes to mind.

 

[Jumi]

How small do you want it ?

As much as possible move decision making to member states.

Looked up the figures
Westminster civil service employees 439,323 (2015)

EU equivalent 42,500
made up of Commission 33,000 parliament 6000 secretariat 3500
that is less than 10% of the Westminster figure. between all 28 countries.

The number of direct employees is not an issue.

 

[Altfish]

I don't often quote the delightful Mr Farage, but this seems particularly relevant...

"In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it"

When can we expect Nigel's call for a re-run?

 

[Jayhawker Soule]

The referendum result is not binding. It is advisory.

Echoes of the Never Trump movement talking about Convention delegates. We've passed through the Looking Glass.

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

As much as possible move decision making to member states.


The number of direct employees is not an issue.

Most decision making is already made by individual nations.
only cross border issues are decided by the EU heads of government and the EU parliament.

The number of employees has certaily been an issue running up to the vote.

 

[Brickjectivity]

Most decision making is already made by individual nations.
only cross border issues are decided by the EU heads of government and the EU parliament.

The number of employees has certaily been an issue running up to the vote.

I'm looking in from the outside. I'm feeling a little nosy and don't mean any harm. According to this youtube video (which is very entertaining) the EU is very undemocratic and makes lots of arbitrary regulations that damage small business in the UK.

 

[sun rise]

I'm looking in from the outside. I'm feeling a little nosy and don't mean any harm. According to this youtube video (which is very entertaining) the EU is very undemocratic and makes lots of arbitrary regulations that damage small business in the UK.

One problem as I understand it is if the UK wants the same status as Norway, they have even less say in what the EU decides - they need to accept EU regulations and EU open borders. Otherwise the UK will be treated the same way as the US and Ghana are which will hurt UK exports to the continent.

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

I'm looking in from the outside. I'm feeling a little nosy and don't mean any harm. According to this youtube video (which is very entertaining) the EU is very undemocratic and makes lots of arbitrary regulations that damage small business in the UK.

It is absolutely true that many small businessmen do not understand many regulations or why they were introduced.
The usual reason for a business regulation is to create a level playing field.
These are not invented out of the air by civil servents. Though it is their job to draft them.
regulations are agreed by every country and by the EU parliament.
Very few of them will be reversed when we leave. The more so if we join the single market as they are the framework.

 

[Terrywoodenpic]

One problem as I understand it is if the UK wants the same status as Norway, they have even less say in what the EU decides - they need to accept EU regulations and EU open borders. Otherwise the UK will be treated the same way as the US and Ghana are which will hurt UK exports to the continent.

Absolutely... even microsoft has to comply with all the regulations, and has been heavily fined for not always doing so.

 

[Brickjectivity]

It is absolutely true that many small businessmen do not understand many regulations or why they were introduced.
The usual reason for a business regulation is to create a level playing field.
These are not invented out of the air by civil servents. Though it is their job to draft them.
regulations are agreed by every country and by the EU parliament.
Very few of them will be reversed when we leave. The more so if we join the single market as they are the framework.

I will give you UKaliens the credit for Donald Trump's victory. If he wins and people ask me how, I'll say he was re-energized by the Brexit!