NFL 2015: mid-season through the Super Bowl

Well, Arizona won, but that half point kept me at 10-3 against the line going into tonight's game. Given last week, I'll take it.

In the meanwhile, what have we learned? That the Vikings weren't ready for prime time with a wounded Green Bay clawing for a win. Minnesota made costly mistake after costly mistake, mostly on defense, but enough all around. Easily their worst played game of the season.

KC isn't as bad as most people thought they were and SF is...Carolina is building toward the playoffs and looks fierce, but they still mostly haven't played anyone. Tampa has a future. Philly, mostly a past.

The Ravens can win and still end up losing.

If Romo stays healthy, Dallas is back.

Denver can win enough with a healthy kid under center to rest Peyton for another shot at a ring (anyone feeling like saying "End of an era" or similar nonsense doesn't understand football, or should go back to New England).

Indy has a fine back-up and a team that's growing. Atlanta is still fowl.

After peaking early, the Pats have been sliding incrementally for the most part. Winning has covered the scent, but there's no King Kong in either division this year, records notwithstanding. Buffalo can't be overlooked.

Minnesota....!!!
I lost most of the ground I gained in the earlier games because of them. Stupid Vikings.

*re-ups on the Vikings to beat the line against the Falcons next week*

Rex Ryan gave the Patriots all they could handle in the first half. The Patriots offense is starting to look like a piece of swiss cheese, especially if Amendola is out for any significant amount of time.

Quetzal said:

Rex Ryan gave the Patriots all they could handle in the first half. The Patriots offense is starting to look like a piece of swiss cheese, especially if Amendola is out for any significant amount of time.

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Man, the last two games got me by a half point per...well, hard to feel badly about being off by a half point. And ten wins on the week isn't bad, considering. Ryan is a good coach. He can blueprint a defense about as well as anyone. I wonder if that won't end up helping everyone else who comes up against the Pats. Time will tell, but like I said, there aren't any world beaters in either conference as it stands, only a handful of teams that can beat the rest, mostly.

In the AFC I still like the Pats, but the Broncos and Bengals are right there. If Denver can grow their back up before the playoffs roll around or Peyton can get healthy by then they're as likely to win the thing as about anyone. The cats would be, but they're still inventing a sense of confidence on that score. Talent wise, they're capable. As are a handful of dark horse teams on a given day, like KC or Pittsburgh.

The NFC is still Arizona and Green Bay and Carolina, with the Panthers gaining mo and respect weekly (they still have to beat contenders, but the third-longest winning streak in NFL history isn't to be sneezed at without a hanky near). All tolled the Panthers have won fourteen games in a row, which is impressive until you realize that only one of those teams had a record above .500....yes, they bring out the vacillation in me. Spoilers in the NFC? Seattle and Dallas if their records let them have the chance. And you never can count the Giants out. Streaky Eli can beat you with a playoff window.

So there's ample reason to take a gleeful front row seat for the season wind-down. We should have meaningful games for a while yet.

Denver has a real shot this week! With so many of the ball catchers playing hurt or sidelined, I can see Denver's offense running up a total while their defense holds Brady and the boys at bay.

I'm heading into the weekend 3-0 agains the line on Pickskin Pick'em.

1. Philly went into Detroit as a .5 favorite. I liked the Lions as a 2 pt upset. Well, they did a bit better than that but anything in the win column was welcomed.

2. Carolina was a .5 favorite on the road. I had them by 6 and the second surprising slaughter began to pad my win total.

3. Green Bay was a 9.5 favorite over the visitng Bears. I had them by 9, but after two burns last week on half points I went with the unlikely upset and scored a win.

4. Min @ Atl: The Vikings are headed to Atlanta as a 1.5 pt dog. I have them making a point, but not the half and I'm going to hold out again and take the Vikings to continue Atlanta's spiral to earth.

5. KC @ Buf: is a 5.5 favorite. The Chiefs have looked like a different team since their loss to Minnesota, pummeling Denver and SD in their backyards and dismantling a Lions team in a win that's more impressive now than it seemed at the time. I'm taking KC to continue the march to the playoffs in style.

6. Cin @ SL: Cin is a home 8.5 favorite against the visiting Rams. SL has been heading in the wrong direction since their overtime loss to the Vikings and the Bengals are needing to halt the two game slide that has people wondering if it's the beginning of another Bengals unraveling. The answer is no. I'll take Cin.

7. Oak @ Ten: the Raiders are a 1.5 favorite on the road. I'm going to go the other way. Two relatively evenly matched teams. I'm taking the home team and a fg.

8. TB @ Ind: the line is Indy and 3.5, but after last week it's impossible to feel comfortable with that. The Bucs have proven that on a given day they can play up to the level of their opponents and, more rarely, above. Indy has a savvy vet and a solid team. A fg could decide this...or twenty. I'm playing the odds and taking Indy at home.

9. Mia @ Jets: Jets are 3.5 favorites at home and I have no real feel for this one. Jets...on paper.

10. NO @ Hou: a struggling Saints squad meets a surging Texans. In the dome I'd give NO a puncher's chance. But Houston is at home and with a hot hand and a 2.5 favorite status. I'm not going to argue.

11. Gia @ Was: the G men come into Washington a 2.5 favorite. Streaky teams. But I'll trust Eli over the other guy more often than not. Giants.

12. SD @ Jac: how far have the Chargers fallen? They're dogs by 4.5 to Jacksonville...and that's about right. But it's a half point too far for my model so, again, I'm going to go for the upset and pick SD to keep it closer.

13. Arz @ SF: the Cardinals are a 10.5 fav. over the hapless Niners. I hate huge lines, but I'm taking this one. Say...Arz 30-17

14. Pit @ Sea: the Hawks have won respect from Vegas and enter the contest a 4.5 home favorite. I like them, but closer. I'll take the Steelers to spoil the line.

15. NE @ Den: I would have been looking forward to this one...but Denver is still the best bet to upset the Pat's try for another perfect regular season in the Brady era. The Pats are getting 3.5. I think this one should be a fg decision and I'm taking the improbable upset here with Denver.

16. Bal @ Cle: in a Monday night game no one is excited about, the Browns are default favorites by 2.5 and I'm not arguing.

So, what do we think of the Pack? Are they simply over hyped? (picks to come shortly)

Quetzal said:

So, what do we think of the Pack? Are they simply over hyped? (picks to come shortly)

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Offensive line woes. When they're not getting it done the running game disappears and even a mobile qb can't buy time for down field throws, his accuracy suffers and, past a point, he's so intent on getting the ball out that he stops making the best reads. It all begins up front...also, Lacy needs to shed lbs before he sheds his career as a starting back.

I didn't put honest picks to paper for Thursday, was too busy stuffing my face with turkey and gravy, but, if I had, I would be 1-2 going into the weekend. The only game I had right was the Carolina game. But, anyways, off we go!

Town Heretic said:

4. Min @ Atl: The Vikings are headed to Atlanta as a 1.5 pt dog. I have them making a point, but not the half and I'm going to hold out again and take the Vikings to continue Atlanta's spiral to earth.

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Atlanta has continued to disappoint me throughout the season. Their offense, on paper, should be killing it. Too bad that isn't the case. Vikings on the road.

Town Heretic said:

5. KC @ Buf: is a 5.5 favorite. The Chiefs have looked like a different team since their loss to Minnesota, pummeling Denver and SD in their backyards and dismantling a Lions team in a win that's more impressive now than it seemed at the time. I'm taking KC to continue the march to the playoffs in style.

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Kansas City is going to win this game, my question is can they cover the two field goals to make it happen? With Taylor hurt for Buffalo, it is going to be LeSean McCoy vs the Chiefs. Unfortunately for him, KC is only allowing 93 rushing yards per game. Not enough, KC take this as Buffalo struggles to find the end zone.

Town Heretic said:

6. Cin @ SL: Cin is a home 8.5 favorite against the visiting Rams. SL has been heading in the wrong direction since their overtime loss to the Vikings and the Bengals are needing to halt the two game slide that has people wondering if it's the beginning of another Bengals unraveling. The answer is no. I'll take Cin.

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You know, looking over the schedule so far, have the Bengals really faced anyone worth their time? I guess the Seattle victory is their gold star at the moment, but the honest challenge by Arizona routed them by a field goal. Man... I don't have a good feeling about this game but let's go Bengals (let's go!)

Town Heretic said:

7. Oak @ Ten: the Raiders are a 1.5 favorite on the road. I'm going to go the other way. Two relatively evenly matched teams. I'm taking the home team and a fg.

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I will take that action! I think Oakland is good enough despite a horrid performance by Carr last week. Raiders!

Town Heretic said:

8. TB @ Ind: the line is Indy and 3.5, but after last week it's impossible to feel comfortable with that. The Bucs have proven that on a given day they can play up to the level of their opponents and, more rarely, above. Indy has a savvy vet and a solid team. A fg could decide this...or twenty. I'm playing the odds and taking Indy at home.

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Winston TERRORIZED the poor Eagles last week and I look for him to continue here. The Indy offense is hurting and it's all up for grabs. I will take the Bucs.

Town Heretic said:

9. Mia @ Jets: Jets are 3.5 favorites at home and I have no real feel for this one. Jets...on paper.

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Fitz is still recovering but this Miami defense should allow him plenty of opportunities. Jets.

Town Heretic said:

10. NO @ Hou: a struggling Saints squad meets a surging Texans. In the dome I'd give NO a puncher's chance. But Houston is at home and with a hot hand and a 2.5 favorite status. I'm not going to argue.

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Texans, next!

Town Heretic said:

11. Gia @ Was: the G men come into Washington a 2.5 favorite. Streaky teams. But I'll trust Eli over the other guy more often than not. Giants.

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Cousins is too inconsistent and inexperienced. As much as I despite Eli and the boys, they will be just fine when they visit the nationals capital. Giants.

Town Heretic said:

12. SD @ Jac: how far have the Chargers fallen? They're dogs by 4.5 to Jacksonville...and that's about right. But it's a half point too far for my model so, again, I'm going to go for the upset and pick SD to keep it closer.

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San Diego has been costing me all year, but the pass defense out of the Jaguars is just horrid. Rivers can't fail me again... can he? Chargers.

Town Heretic said:

13. Arz @ SF: the Cardinals are a 10.5 fav. over the hapless Niners. I hate huge lines, but I'm taking this one. Say...Arz 30-17

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You know that stepping stone boxer that people come to see just to see him get his butt kicked? That is the 49ers this year and I have my ticket for this pummeling right here! Arizona.

Town Heretic said:

14. Pit @ Sea: the Hawks have won respect from Vegas and enter the contest a 4.5 home favorite. I like them, but closer. I'll take the Steelers to spoil the line.

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Big Ben has been looking very good the last two games he has played. However... against Seattle at home is a tall order. I don't think they have the grapes here. Seahawks.

Town Heretic said:

15. NE @ Den: I would have been looking forward to this one...but Denver is still the best bet to upset the Pat's try for another perfect regular season in the Brady era. The Pats are getting 3.5. I think this one should be a fg decision and I'm taking the improbable upset here with Denver.

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Any other time, I would say you are nuts. In this contest it is going to be Gronkowski vs. the entire Denver defense. Who else does Brady have? Their only decent WR they have left is Amendola with a knee injury is questionable at best. Denver does it here.

Town Heretic said:

16. Bal @ Cle: in a Monday night game no one is excited about, the Browns are default favorites by 2.5 and I'm not arguing.

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The blues, er.. reds... whoever is in Cleveland, I don't care.

Update: Amendola will not be playing in the NE/Den game. Doesn't affect my picks but thought I would pass it along.

Wow, so close...

I had Carolina over Dallas, in one of the more ridiculous lines I've ever seen. I mean to say, a 10-0 team were +1.5? People were either way overthinking the short break, or they were total Cowboys homers. Either way, good for me.
I had Minnesota over Atlanta. Atlanta aren't quite hot garbage, but again...+2.0? Just because Green Bay got hold of them the week before? Thank-you.

Then I pushed it with a bet on the Bengals and Rams to go over 42.0 combined. 31-7 didn't quite get me there. Still, I finished ahead for the weekend, so all good.
(I'm not about to lay cash on the Browns or Ravens...yeeeewwwww....)

Talk to me about Eli Manning! Little schmuck got cleaned up in Washington!

Quetzal said:

Talk to me about Eli Manning! Little schmuck got cleaned up in Washington!

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He had an awful day. Cousins had a better bad day. Just one of those and you had to see the potential going in. I went with the more consistent of the two and it didn't pan out. That's life.

So. What have we learned? If you're like me, not much. I'll take my 11-4 going into tonights "Seriously, they put that on tv?" contest between who cares and doesn't matter. On my losses? The Oak/Ten and Gia/Was games were coin flips anyway and the Pit/Sea was right where it should have been until the late score. You just have to live with those.

Arizona...just not the same on the road, which would be trouble except GB is in freefall and that leaves Carolina as the potential go-through, which is a gift, comparatively.

Speaking of playoffs. If they were held today?

AFC Round 1
Chiefs go to the Colts and win a squeaker on the road. 24-21
Houston goes to Denver and does better than expected, but not enough as they fall 21-14 under relentless defensive pressure.

NFC Round 1
Two road wins as Green Bay trumps Washington to reclaim some offensive momentum, 29-24
Seattle finds Minnesota ready but wins on a defensive turnover and an overtime kick, 23-20.

AFC Round 2
Denver stays with its young gun and defensive posture. Dalton dispels the Manning like mythos and wins it on a late drive. 21-17
The Chiefs give Brady and company all they can handle, but a fg seals the deal for the Pats. 24-23

NFC Round 2
Green Bay finds enough offense to make it interesting, but Arz is too much at home. 30-24
Carolina shuts up the nay-sayers (like me) with a tough win against a stout opponent. 27-24

AFC Championship
Not the match-up anyone really expected, but a close, well played game sees the experienced Pats on top at the end, despite a good game by Dalton, 34-27

NFC Championship
The Cardinals are thinking Super Bowl. Carolina has other plans for them as Cam and Company win it 34-28

Super Bowl
The once and future king? Who knows. What I do know is that in this scenario it's one of the better contests, with both qbs throwing for 3 tds against one pick for Cam and two for Brady as he's forced to throw too many against a defense that swallows the Pats attempt at a running game. And that extra pick is the difference. In a shocker (or karma, if you're a Seattle fan) 30-27 Carolina.

Town Heretic said:

Two road wins as Green Bay trumps Washington to reclaim some offensive momentum, 29-24

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It wouldn't be that close, but the outcome I agree with

Town Heretic said:

Denver stays with its young gun and defensive posture. Dalton dispels the Manning like mythos and wins it on a late drive. 21-17

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I think you are really underestimating the Denver offense. If they can get the run going like they did last night, I think they will be fine.

Town Heretic said:

The Chiefs give Brady and company all they can handle, but a fg seals the deal for the Pats. 24-23

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Ehhhh this is tough. If Gronk is able to play and Edelman recovers, Patriots win by 6. As it is now, Patriots lose by 3.

Here's the thing. KC is good, but playing streaky and I don't think going into New England's field would be a three to five point minus for them off the bat. Also, with star players and without star players Brady finds a way to elevate his team, as does Bill on the defensive scheming side. I don't think you can undervalue those things in a tough game.

Denver...great defense, but the running game is an illusion. Take away the one really great run and it's a good, but not great day in that department, with much of that being driven, I think, by inconsistent but dangerous play from Brok (who wasn't that good and people won't but should shut up about riding him in the playoffs. If Manning can step through throws by then, whenever he can, it's his team and position) that made it difficult to seat a defense. But the book is running on him and Bill won't be as tentative next time around with his plan.

The Washington bit was mostly figuring a good day. On a bad day for both teams GB wins. It would take a bad GB performance with one of Was' better efforts to come away with a win.

Anyway, the numbers and outcomes were predicated on where each team is and how they're playing RIGHT NOW. A couple of weeks or so and who knows. It can change that fast. Ask Green Bay.

lewisnotmiller said:

Wow, so close...

I had Carolina over Dallas, in one of the more ridiculous lines I've ever seen. I mean to say, a 10-0 team were +1.5? People were either way overthinking the short break, or they were total Cowboys homers. Either way, good for me.

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Too much was read into Romo's return and Carolina came into this game with a 14 game streak of wins over almost entirely sub 500 teams. People weren't sure if they were a paper tiger or how well Romo would play.

I had Minnesota over Atlanta. Atlanta aren't quite hot garbage, but again...+2.0? Just because Green Bay got hold of them the week before? Thank-you.

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The Vikings are a good team, national spotlight hiccup notwithstanding. Atlanta? Too much talent to be performing that poorly. Another coaching change in the hopper?

Then I pushed it with a bet on the Bengals and Rams to go over 42.0 combined.

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That was a reach, but possible given how prolific the Bengal's offense has been. SL had to help a little though and they haven't done that in a while.

31-7 didn't quite get me there. Still, I finished ahead for the weekend, so all good.
(I'm not about to lay cash on the Browns or Ravens...yeeeewwwww....)

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What can the Browns do for you?

Town Heretic said:

Denver...great defense, but the running game is an illusion. Take away the one really great run and it's a good, but not great day in that department, with much of that being driven, I think, by inconsistent but dangerous play from Brok (who wasn't that good and people won't but should shut up about riding him in the playoffs. If Manning can step through throws by then, whenever he can, it's his team and position) that made it difficult to seat a defense. But the book is running on him and Bill won't be as tentative next time around with his plan.

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I am not sold on Brock Osweiler either. He is too green and is making a lot of mistakes. C.J. Anderson could not have chosen a better game to actually show up to.

Quetzal said:

I am not sold on Brock Osweiler either. He is too green and is making a lot of mistakes. C.J. Anderson could not have chosen a better game to actually show up to.

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I think he has shown a bit, actually, but he's basically a rookie, so I suspect he'll be very inconsistent.

lewisnotmiller said:

I think he has shown a bit, actually, but he's basically a rookie, so I suspect he'll be very inconsistent.

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Don't get me wrong, I think the kid can play. But Denver forums are losing their minds thinking he will carry them through the playoffs. But, as TH already mentioned, if Peyton rolls up healthy he is back to the sideline.

Quetzal said:

Don't get me wrong, I think the kid can play. But Denver forums are losing their minds thinking he will carry them through the playoffs. But, as TH already mentioned, if Peyton rolls up healthy he is back to the sideline.

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Well, we've had Super Bowl winners who weren't terrific at the position, coupled with others who were and/or defenses that could compensate. Game managers can win along with qbs who can do enough without penalizing their team, like Griese, Ben the first time, Brad Johnson, Hostetler, Dilfer, Namath. But were any of them that green going in?

He may develop into a fine qb. He certainly has shown flashes, but he's not ready to challenge the best defenses and coordinators in a playoff run with enough games between now and then to see the book on him. No, at best he can help assure Denver a spot at the table while everyone hopes Peyton gets healthy enough to plant.

Ultimately, I blame Gary for this one. His scheme was ill suited to their talent and got Manning hammered early and often, which led to early breakdowns of an older body. If he'd started Peyton under center, worked in more of the running and fine tuned a healthier defense than last year I think we'd be in a much different place considering the Broncos. As it stands, I just don't know. It feels like the parade may have passed. Though on the up side, if Peyton could get healthy enough to return in the playoffs, after the off week and made the last run to glory, how great would that be as NFL stories go?