Twisting statistics in regards to creationism.

[fallingblood]

On a number of threads, the topic of young earth creationists (YECs) have come up. Often in these thread, the statistic that 4 in 10 Americans, or 40% or Americans are creationists (and then it is assumed that they are YECs). That statistic cited comes from a Gallup poll from 2010 which can be seen here: Four in 10 Americans Believe in Strict Creationism Recently, an updated Gallup poll was released (June 1, 2012), which puts the statistic at 46%, which can be seen here: In U.S., 46% Hold Creationist View of Human Origins

This is a prime example of how such statistics are twisted. If one reads what the poll actually says, we are not talking about creationism. Creationism, in general, is not the focus of this poll, and Gallup even seems to forget that. The poll is about human origins. To expand it to include creationism in general simply is misleading.

The expansion of this poll in regards to YEC is even more misleading. Again, this poll discusses just human origins. Believing that humans were created sometime in the last 10,000 years in their present form does not equal the idea that Earth is just 6,000 years old. Since the poll does not discuss how the age of the Earth, or the discussion of Earth, to claim it does simply isn't actually dealing with the poll.

Further, looking at the population sample, and the jump between the statistics from year to year (for instance, a jump in 6% from 2010 to 2012 (about 60 people)) may be nothing more than a flux. And since the sample is relatively small, to say anything for certain is a little foolish. Especially since the accuracy of the poll, according to Gallup, is + or - 4%.

Even the phrasing of the question is not the best. The questioning for this poll was:
Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings -- [ROTATE 1-3/3-1: 1) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process, 2) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part in this process, 3) God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so]?

This leaves out other options, such as God created human in their present form at some time in history (as in, more that 10,000 years ago). The only option for straight creationism is for 10,000 years or less (usually associated with YEC), which simply is misleading.

All these problems end up creating horrible arguments in regards to the number of YECs out there. And the misuse of statistics can be seen in many other instances as well.

[painted wolf]

How's the old saying go... Lies, d@mn lies and statistics.

wa:do

[nyRednek]

One can twist statistics to claim almost anything. These days, it's common for political groups to do just that.

[Skwim]

Originally Posted by fallingblood

On a number of threads, the topic of young earth creationists (YECs) have come up. Often in these thread, the statistic that 4 in 10 Americans, or 40% or Americans are creationists (and then it is assumed that they are YECs). That statistic cited comes from a Gallup poll from 2010 which can be seen here: Four in 10 Americans Believe in Strict Creationism Recently, an updated Gallup poll was released (June 1, 2012), which puts the statistic at 46%, which can be seen here: In U.S., 46% Hold Creationist View of Human Origins

This is a prime example of how such statistics are twisted. If one reads what the poll actually says, we are not talking about creationism. Creationism, in general, is not the focus of this poll, and Gallup even seems to forget that. The poll is about human origins. To expand it to include creationism in general simply is misleading.

Correct; however, I doubt if the percentages would be much different had the questions used "life" instead of "human beings."

The expansion of this poll in regards to YEC is even more misleading. Again, this poll discusses just human origins. Believing that humans were created sometime in the last 10,000 years in their present form does not equal the idea that Earth is just 6,000 years old.

How is this relevant?

Since the poll does not discuss how the age of the Earth, or the discussion of Earth, to claim it does simply isn't actually dealing with the poll.

I failed to see this claim. Please point it out.

Further, looking at the population sample, and the jump between the statistics from year to year (for instance, a jump in 6% from 2010 to 2012 (about 60 people)) may be nothing more than a flux. And since the sample is relatively small, to say anything for certain is a little foolish. Especially since the accuracy of the poll, according to Gallup, is + or - 4%.

I don't believe they said anything about the cause of any biennial change in percentages.

Even the phrasing of the question is not the best. The questioning for this poll was:
Which of the following statements comes closest to your views on the origin and development of human beings -- [ROTATE 1-3/3-1: 1) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God guided this process, 2) Human beings have developed over millions of years from less advanced forms of life, but God had no part in this process, 3) God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so]?

This leaves out other options, such as God created human in their present form at some time in history (as in, more that 10,000 years ago). The only option for straight creationism is for 10,000 years or less (usually associated with YEC), which simply is misleading.

Do you know of any creationists who don't believe in evolution ("developed" is Gallup's term) but think god created human beings as is more than 10,000 years ago? I don't.

All these problems end up creating horrible arguments in regards to the number of YECs out there. And the misuse of statistics can be seen in many other instances as well.

What "horrible arguments"?

[Sunstone]

I think statistical illiteracy is pretty high these days.

[fallingblood]

Originally Posted by Skwim

Correct; however, I doubt if the percentages would be much different had the questions used "life" instead of "human beings."

However, they could be quite different. Since the poll says nothing about it, this poll can not be used to support such an idea.

How is this relevant?

Because such an argument is often used, in regards to this poll. And YECs generally state that the world is just 6,000 years old.

I failed to see this claim. Please point it out.

The poll doesn't state this. As my first paragraph explained, I am addressing an issue of other people using this poll, and making such a claim.

I don't believe they said anything about the cause of any biennial change in percentages.

They didn't state a cause. I was addressing a possibility for that change, as well as the problem.

Do you know of any creationists who don't believe in evolution ("developed" is Gallup's term) but think god created human beings as is more than 10,000 years ago? I don't.

I don't really understand this question.

What "horrible arguments"?

Such as using this poll to claim that 40% of Americans are YECs. And that has happened a number of times on this forum. Or the claim that 40% of Americans are creationists, which has happened a number of times on this forum. Both claims are not supported by the poll.

[9-10ths_Penguin]

Originally Posted by fallingblood

Because such an argument is often used, in regards to this poll. And YECs generally state that the world is just 6,000 years old.

6000 years old is "within the last 10,000 years."

Originally Posted by fallingblood

The poll doesn't state this. As my first paragraph explained, I am addressing an issue of other people using this poll, and making such a claim.

I'm not sure what you're trying to say here. It sounds like you're quibbling over the idea that the poll would allow a dead (or human-free) Earth to exist for some indeterminate amount of time before God created humans within the last 10,000 years, and therefore the people who believe this wouldn't technically be "young Earth" creationists, even though they believe in special creation (at least for humans) and reject common descent (at least for humans).

I think you're splitting hairs.

First off, I would say that the vast, vast majority of people who would pick this response would be YECs. Speaking for myself, I've never even heard of "old Earth, young humans" creationism as a thing, let alone met anyone who espouses this view, so I would be very suspicious of anyone claiming that their numbers are so large that they'd have a significant effect on a poll like this.

Second, such people would still be anti-evolution and would still be rejecting normal scientific understanding. If we're having a discussion of the popularity of various Christian doctrines, then sure, the difference between this view and the YEC view might be relevant, but if we're having a discussion of the state of scientific acceptance, then it's insignificant.

Originally Posted by fallingblood

Such as using this poll to claim that 40% of Americans are YECs. And that has happened a number of times on this forum. Or the claim that 40% of Americans are creationists, which has happened a number of times on this forum. Both claims are not supported by the poll.

The first claim is supported by both the poll and some common sense about the normal range of views that would cause a person to pick that response.

The second claim is absolutely supported by the poll.

[Shadow Wolf]

On a number of threads, the topic of young earth creationists (YECs) have come up. Often in these thread, the statistic that 4 in 10 Americans, or 40% or Americans are creationists (and then it is assumed that they are YECs). That statistic cited comes from a Gallup poll from 2010 which can be seen here: Four in 10 Americans Believe in Strict Creationism Recently, an updated Gallup poll was released (June 1, 2012), which puts the statistic at 46%, which can be seen here: In U.S., 46% Hold Creationist View of Human Origins

I'm sure the margin of error covers those who took "Strict Creationism" to mean any other than YEC. Not too mention that Creationist tend to hold a very high degree of anthropomorphism, and creationism in general refers to humans because of course we didn't descend from monkeys.

But considering both polls use identical questions, I don't see what there is to claim it's being manipulated. The polls are titled differently, but people were asked the same questions.

Such as using this poll to claim that 40% of Americans are YECs. And that has happened a number of times on this forum. Or the claim that 40% of Americans are creationists, which has happened a number of times on this forum. Both claims are not supported by the poll.

The 40% may not necessarily be YEC, but to believe humans were created in our current form is just as absurd, and is still a form of Creationism. Thus because 32% percent believes God guided evolution, we can say 78% of the population are a Creationist in a general sense of the word. And that is how you manipulate statistics.

[9-10ths_Penguin]

fallingblood,

I'm having real trouble figuring out your objection here. Is it just that the poll doesn't differentiate between people who believe that God created both the Earth and humans through special creation (the people who I assume you're referring to as "creationists"), and people who believe that God created humans by special creation but not the Earth (the people who I assume you're saying aren't creationists)?

Is that it?

Edit: it seems to me that you're saying that there is some significant number of people who pick that last answer on the poll who are not creationists. Exactly what do you think they are if not creationists?

[Skwim]

Originally Posted by fallingblood

However, they could be quite different. Since the poll says nothing about it, this poll can not be used to support such an idea.

They could be "quite different"; however, I don't see anything pointing to it.

Because such an argument is often used, in regards to this poll. And YECs generally state that the world is just 6,000 years old.

It's irrelevant that such an argument is used. We're dealing with the results of a poll, not what people may do with them.

The poll doesn't state this. As my first paragraph explained, I am addressing an issue of other people using this poll, and making such a claim.

And while a creationist may try to use poll results in this way, I don't remember any ever doing so, or how it could be done.

They didn't state a cause. I was addressing a possibility for that change, as well as the problem.

My mistake in thinking "they" referred to Gallup instead of creationists, but again, while a creationist may claim such a thing, I don't see it being done.

I don't really understand this question.

you said, "Since the poll does not discuss how the age of the Earth, or the discussion of Earth, to claim it does simply isn't actually dealing with the poll."
My remark was to "your" claim that Gallup mentions the age of the Earth, or the discussion of Earth. That you were apparently were referring creationists clears that up. Yet, I can't see any creationist doing this.

Such as using this poll to claim that 40% of Americans are YECs. And that has happened a number of times on this forum. Or the claim that 40% of Americans are creationists, which has happened a number of times on this forum. Both claims are not supported by the poll.

Well, 46% did select:

3) God created human beings pretty much in their present form at one time within the last 10,000 years or so.

And if this isn't a creationist view I don't know what is.