Carrington Event

[Trey of Diamonds]

Know what the Carrington Event was?

A Perfect Solar Superstorm: The 1859 Carrington Event

The Carrington Event
On the morning of September 1, 1859, amateur astrologer Richard Carrington ascended into the private observatory attached to his country estate outside of London. After cranking open the dome’s shutter to reveal the clear blue sky, he pointed his brass telescope toward the sun and began to sketch a cluster of enormous dark spots that freckled its surface. Suddenly, Carrington spotted what he described as “two patches of intensely bright and white light” erupting from the sunspots. Five minutes later the fireballs vanished, but within hours their impact would be felt across the globe.

That night, telegraph communications around the world began to fail; there were reports of sparks showering from telegraph machines, shocking operators and setting papers ablaze. All over the planet, colorful auroras illuminated the nighttime skies, glowing so brightly that birds began to chirp and laborers started their daily chores, believing the sun had begun rising. Some thought the end of the world was at hand, but Carrington’s naked eyes had spotted the true cause for the bizarre happenings: a massive solar flare with the energy of 10 billion atomic bombs. The flare spewed electrified gas and subatomic particles toward Earth, and the resulting geomagnetic storm—dubbed the “Carrington Event”—was the largest on record to have struck the planet.

What do you think might happen the next time we experience a Carrington Event?

Earth Unprepared for Super Solar Storm

"If we had a repeat of the Carrington event, I would expect several days of economic and social mayhem as many critical technological systems failed – e.g., localized power grid failures in many countries, widespread loss of GPS signals for navigation and timing, disruption of communications systems, shutdown of long-haul aviation," Hapgood told SPACE.com via email.

And the short-term problems caused by such a storm could pale in comparison with its long-term impact, he added.

"What scares me is the possibility that this recovery could take a long time in many parts of the world," Hapgood said. "Over the past few decades, we have become much more dependent on technology to sustain our everyday lives: e.g., electricity to pump clean water to our homes and remove sewage, just-in-time supply chains to feed us, ATMs and retail card readers to provide money for everyday shopping. Do we know how to recover quickly from the simultaneous disruption of a huge range of systems?"

If this happens, what would you do? Do you think this is a civilization ender? Would society collapse if it lost it's power grid for just one year? What would be the religious implications of the Carrington Event? Would this be a modern day flood?

[Wirey]

Man, we lived through disco, bell bottoms, and Jimmy Carter in a short period. We'll figure this one out. This is another Y2K thing, where some schmuck with a minor information advantage is trying to scare people badly enough that he can sell them the cure he invented for something that won't even hurt them.

I'm far more worried about the Revoltistanian Arms Buildup. Now they have 2 slingshots.

[BSM1]

If it's funny maybe we could call it the Rodney Carrington event.

[dust1n]

I don't know is this can really be compared to a Y2K effect. Another solar system would disrupt most of our major technologies. I doubt we would go without power for an entire year. It would be cool, cause it might unite humanity more so than it is now.

[Wirey]

Originally Posted by dust1n

I don't know is this can really be compared to a Y2K effect. Another solar system would disrupt most of our major technologies. I doubt we would go without power for an entire year. It would be cool, cause it might unite humanity more so than it is now.

Electrical is what I do. Trust me, a solar flare that shuts down the grid for a year would also fry most living things on the planet. This is no real threat.

[Trey of Diamonds]

Originally Posted by Wirey

Electrical is what I do. Trust me, a solar flare that shuts down the grid for a year would also fry most living things on the planet. This is no real threat.

Really. So you are saying that a Carrington event wouldn't destroy some of the transformers in the North American power grid?

As Sun Storms Ramp Up, Electric Grid Braces for Impact

The electrical power grid is particularly vulnerable to these extra currents, which can infiltrate high-voltage transmission lines, causing transformers to overheat and possibly burn out.

"The concern is if the electric grid lost a number of transformers during a single storm, replacing them would be difficult and time-consuming," said Rich Lordan, senior technical executive for power delivery and utilization at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).

"These power transformers are very big devices, and the lead time to get a replacement can be two months—if there's a spare one stored nearby. If a utility has to order a new one from the manufacturer, it could take six months to up to two years to deliver."

[Wirey]

Quotes from the NG article:

The concern is if the electric grid lost a number of transformers during a single storm, replacing them would be difficult and time-consuming," said Rich Lordan, senior technical executive for power delivery and utilization at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI).

Based on the data and the scenarios we can reasonably expect, I believe the power-delivery system can operate through a solar storm."

That's not to say every CME is a harbinger of doom—the clouds are highly directional and can miss Earth entirely or strike only glancing blows.
For instance, in 1989 the transmission system for Canada's Hydro Quebec electricity provider collapsed during a solar storm, leaving millions of people without power for nine hours or more. And the "Halloween storms" of 2003 triggered blackouts in the city of Malmö, Sweden, and likely caused transformer failures in South Africa. "Because they are located closer to the magnetic North Pole, Canadian utilities are deeply involved in monitoring geomagnetically induced currents, modeling impacts for vulnerability, and refining their operational protocols," EPRI's Lordan said.
The rest of the article uses hedges like “Can” and “May” repeatedly. The nine hours in Quebec thing was for rural customers who were turned on last. Quebec City was down for less than 30 minutes. And that’s the worst one on record. I’m pretty sure we’re safe. Sorry, but this sounds exactly like Y2K stuff to me.

[Trey of Diamonds]

Originally Posted by Wirey

I’m pretty sure we’re safe. Sorry, but this sounds exactly like Y2K stuff to me.

I'm fairly sure myself. But what you said was there is no threat. There is a threat. In fact Y2K was a threat and if they hadn't worked pretty damned hard to ensure the turnover was a non-event, then there would have been problems of various degrees. I'm in the computer industry and witnessed first hand the measures taken to make sure everything stayed operational.

Sooner or later, a solar storm of extreme magnitude will strike the earth. That storm will create disruption in our power grid. The only question is how prepared we will be to deal with it. As I understand it, we aren't all that prepared today.

Just so we're clear, I love me some dooms day scenarios. Most, while entertaining, are far from reality. This one is probably the only popular one that has any merit what so ever. In could happen.

So, the question is, if the worst case scenarios does happen, what will you do?

My answer is move to Texas, they have their own power grid that's far enough south to not be affected.

[dust1n]

Originally Posted by Wirey

Electrical is what I do. Trust me, a solar flare that shuts down the grid for a year would also fry most living things on the planet. This is no real threat.

Well I didn't think it would shut down the grid for a year, which is what I said.

I don't see why is considered implausible that the earth can get hit by solar winds. By your own admission, it happens quite often.

But if you are right, that such a huge storm that would cause catastrophic damage to the electrical grid would also fry everything on the planet, that doesn't mean that there isn't a threat. It just seems to me the threat is less about the electrical system and more about being fried.

[Wirey]

If a big enough one shows up, they'll drop the grid intentionally. After it passes by, turn it back on. Inconvenient, but survivable. And they don't appreciate my kind in Texas. You know, literate.