The 2011 Canadian Election Peanut Gallery

[9-10ths_Penguin]

One more link: Pundits' Guide has a pretty thorough analysis of most of the country, riding by riding, categorizing them by "strongly contested", "outside chances" and "not expecting any change". Check the "previous posts" list on the right side to find the article on your region.

[Alceste]

Originally Posted by 9-10ths_Penguin

One more link: Pundits' Guide has a pretty thorough analysis of most of the country, riding by riding, categorizing them by "strongly contested", "outside chances" and "not expecting any change". Check the "previous posts" list on the right side to find the article on your region.

I'm in an "outside chance" riding. Fingers crossed - the current Con MP is the 5th highest spending MP in the country, and reminds me of Boss Hog. Would be nice to see him put out to pasture.

[Alceste]

Originally Posted by 9-10ths_Penguin

So... in what's probably the last opinion poll of the campaign, here's where things stand:


Canadian Election Opinion Polls

If anyone had predicted this when the election was first called, I wouldn't have believed them.

Something else interesting: it seems to me that this rise in NDP support is different from the rise that the party experienced in 1988 under Ed Broadbent, which then failed to result in much in the way of actual seats, because this time, the NDP has a very strong support base in Quebec. In 1988, the first-past-the-post system worked against the NDP; this time, I think it'll work to their advantage.

However, what will happen in the "battlegrounds" like Ontario remains to be seen.

Also: do you think Elizabeth May will take her riding? Will we get our first Green MP? The discussion at the Election Prediction Project seems to be evenly split.

Another difference is that voters who are primarily motivated by antipathy toward Harper's "leadership" now have online tools that help determine which candidate is best positioned to unseat the Conservative. That is often an NDP candidate (now more than ever). In Broadbent's day that sort of thing was not available. Given the popularity of strategic voting, that could spell disaster for the Cons by helping avoid the vote-splitting effect. There has also been a non-affiliated, progressive grassroots campaign targetting close ridings with full-page anti-Harper ads.

Amp Your Vote | Project Democracy / Projet Démocratie

[Alceste]

Ooh, just looking at my riding on project democracy - it's actually a dead heat, not an outside chance! Nanos has the Cons ahead by a couple thousand while Ekos has the exact opposite. The amalgamated polls have the Cons ahead, but only by a whisker - a few hundred votes - well within the margin of error. This is exciting.

[Alceste]

A few other interesting stats I've come across - about half of progressive voters are willing to vote strategically to oust a Conservative, even if it means voting for a candidate they dislike. The NDP is (was) the second choice of the vast majority of voters who lean toward another party. Meanwhile, Layton's approval ratings are in the high 90's (having rocketed up almost 20% on the day of the massage parlour story).

I'm not changing my prediction of yet another Con minority, but I think it will be closer than I thought, and a non-Con coalition government with Layton at the helm is a real possibility - one that I greet with a considerable amount of relief.

An NDP-Liberal coalition might be ideal, actually, given the Liberals' strength as sound fiscal managers but their generally weak ethical convictions. The NDP have the opposite problem. Perhaps their strengths will complement one another.

[Witch9]

Originally Posted by Alceste

There has also been a non-affiliated, progressive grassroots campaign targetting close ridings with full-page anti-Harper ads.

Now why would anyone do that?

I mean look at the man's record.

He has done such a great job of managing the economy that "The Harper Government© " took Canada from a $13-billion surplus to a $56-million deficit, in just 5 years.


His dedication to the average Canadian was measured by increasing the share of revenues contributed by personal income tax from 55.5% to 60.6%, while cutting the share from corporate income tax from 20.0% to 15.4%.


If he comes out on top tonight, his pre-election budget will come back and give a further 6 BILLION dollar tax cut to large corporations.


Of course, you need to forget a few things.


Like claiming credit for the 6% health-care transfer payments put in place by the Liberals in 2004.


Or the fact that he ran on a platform that Senators should be elected and then packed the upper house with Tories to ensure all Harper Government bills would get rubber-stamp approval.


And his promise that he would not tax income trusts, but just months later hit the country with a massive income-trust tax grab, costing Canadians over 35 BILLION dollars.

How you can tell when Harper is lying? You can see his lips moving.

[Alceste]

You're preaching to the choir, Witch9. Funny, I think everyone in this thread lives on Vancouver Island. Aren't there any other Canadians around here?

Edit: whoops, forgot about Pengo! So, it's 3 against 1.

[Vinayaka]

Edmonton here, but I'm a tree hugging honorary Vancouver Islander. My father would be jumping up and down in his grave today. He and about 10 friends were this little pocket of NDP surrounded by redneck tories.

[Alceste]

Originally Posted by Vinayaka

Edmonton here, but I'm a tree hugging honorary Vancouver Islander. My father would be jumping up and down in his grave today. He and about 10 friends were this little pocket of NDP surrounded by redneck tories.

Lol... Yeah, that was me whenever I've lived in Calgary. It's funny - I've voted NDP in every federal election since I could vote (except the first, when I voted reform - long story). I never thought they had the slightest chance of winning, though. When the centrist Liberals were at the helm, progressives were a pack of complacent grumblers who felt like they HAD to vote Liberal or risk opening the door to more right-wing parties. I suppose it took a few years of living with King Harper to jolt them out of their complacency.

I suppose a Hat tip is also due to the Liberals for their choice of a leader who they dragged in from outside our borders, and who didn't bother turning up for work as an MP.

[Alceste]

Final estimate from Ekos:


After the ballots are counted tomorrow, we expect to see the following:
1) CPC: 130 to 146 seats
2) NDP: 103 to 123 seats
3) LPC: 36 to 46 seats
4) BQ: 10 to 20 seats
5) GP: 1 seat