All hail "the fastest growing religion"!

[Jayhawker Soule]

What a pathetically foolish argument!

Nevertheless we seem to be subjected to is periodically by those who apparently don't know any better. So, just to note the obvious ...

Different definitions of “fastest growing”

Religions can grow in numbers due to conversion or due to higher birth rates in a religious group (assuming that children take on the religion of their parents). Religions in particular countries can grow due to immigration. So the fastest growing religion could refer to:

• The religion whose absolute number of adherents is growing the fastest (by whatever means).
• The religion which is growing fastest in terms of percentage growth per year (by whatever means).
• The religion which is gaining the greatest number of converts.

Measures counting absolute numbers tend to favour the larger religions; measures counting percentage growth the smaller ones. For example, if a religion had only 10 followers, a single addition would be a 10% increase, and would therefore dwarf the percentage growth rates of the larger religions.

The difficulty of gathering data

Statistics on religious adherence are difficult to gather and often contradictory; statistics for the change of religious adherence are even more so, requiring multiple surveys separated by many years using the same data gathering rules. This has only been achieved in rare cases, and then only for a particular country, such as the American Religious Identification Survey[1] in the USA, or census data from Australia[2] (which has included a voluntary religious question since 1911). Worldwide data is more difficult to gather than data on a particular country.

Statistics for rates of conversion are the most difficult to gather and the least reliable: they are often distorted by social taboos such as the ban on apostasy in Islam, or the reporting of commitments where the individual does not persist. This means that a lot of the data on growth of religions is derived from birth and immigration rates.

There are a large number of people who self-identify themselves as associated to a specific religion, but who are not religiously active. If, for example, asked to choose between Christianity and other religions they would say they were Christians; if asked to choose between Christianity, other religions and "Not religious", they would say "Not religious". This may make categorization difficult.

In countries with mandatory religions, official statistics will only reflect the official position of the government.

Claims to be the fastest growing religion

Note that it would be an argumentum ad populum to claim that being the “fastest growing religion” has any logical consequences about the truth of that religion.

< -- snip -- >


Islam

Data for Islam reveal that the growing number of Muslims is due primarily to immigration (in the West) and higher birth rates (worldwide).

• In 2006, countries with a Muslim majority had an average population growth rate of 1.8% per year (when weighted by percentage Muslim and population size). This compares with a world population growth rate of 1.12% per year.
• According to the "Pew Forum on Religion & Public Life"
  

  Islam is already the fastest-growing religion in Europe. Driven by immigration and high birthrates, the number of Muslims on the continent has tripled in the last 30 years. Most demographers forecast a similar or even higher rate of growth in the coming decades.

• According to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the World Christian Database as of 2007 estimated the six fastest growing religions of the world to be Islam (1.84%). High birth rates were cited as the reason for the growth.

There is considerable difficulty in ascertaining the number of Muslims and as a result most measurements are inflated. The issue of apostasy in Islam is a major factor in this discrepancy. Countries such as Pakistan, The Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Islamic Republic of Iran, Saudi Arabia, Algeria and Egypt disallow legal recognition of non-Islamic religions, Islamic apostates and or impose the death penalty as a punishment for apostasy. [source]

Bottom line: the claim is problematic and irrelevant ...

[Halcyon]

Originally Posted by Jayhawker Soule

...

Note that it would be an argumentum ad populum to claim that being the “fastest growing religion” has any logical consequences about the truth of that religion.

...

Bottom line: the claim is problematic and irrelevant ...

The speed at which a faith group increases in number is no more an indicator of its validity or even a measure of its worth than is the number of words in its sacred text.

[9-10ths_Penguin]

Originally Posted by Jayhawker Soule

Different definitions of “fastest growing”

Religions can grow in numbers due to conversion or due to higher birth rates in a religious group (assuming that children take on the religion of their parents). Religions in particular countries can grow due to immigration. So the fastest growing religion could refer to:

• The religion whose absolute number of adherents is growing the fastest (by whatever means).
• The religion which is growing fastest in terms of percentage growth per year (by whatever means).
• The religion which is gaining the greatest number of converts.

Measures counting absolute numbers tend to favour the larger religions; measures counting percentage growth the smaller ones. For example, if a religion had only 10 followers, a single addition would be a 10% increase, and would therefore dwarf the percentage growth rates of the larger religions.

And that's all assuming that growth has something to do with straight numbers of adherents. Growth could also be measured in terms of change in average number of religious service attendees (distinct from members, IMO), mass, volume, monetary value, land area (i.e. a religion could be "fastest growing" in the same way that Timmins, Ontario is the "world's largest city"), water content, average height, or basically any quantifiable measure.

Edit: apparently, Timmins has been dethroned by Mount Isa, Australia.

[Popeyesays]

World Religions Religion Statistics Geography Church Statistics talks about the difficulties of obtaining reliable numbers for membership in any faith.

Both Islam and Christianity routinely include new births as members autmoatically whether that individual stays a member of thecommunikty in question or wanders far afield.

The Baha`i Faith is different in a lot of ways. Primarily it is because it is a religion of converts overwhelmingly, and this is evidenced by the fact that it is not standard to count births into the faith automaticaqlly as members.
"Babi & Baha'i faiths: At least 98% of the adherents of the Babi & Baha'i faiths belong to the same church/denomination/religious body, the Baha'i World Faith (or simply "Baha'i Faith") with headquarters in Haifa, Israel. One might think that this should make Baha'i records fairly straightforward and easily obtainable. But statistical practices differ in each country and figures are not always released to the public. Most recent published estimates of the world Baha'i population are about 6.5 million. This is the figure provided in current Baha'i publications. A recent, updated estimate in the 1998 Encyclopedia Britannica is reportedly 7.67 million, higher than any Baha'i-provided figure we have seen. The accuracy of all of these figures is difficult to determine, and the organization does not provide a breakdown of membership data for each country.

As with most religious groups, organizationally reported adherent counts include significant numbers of nominal members, or people who no longer actively participate, yet still identify themselves as adherents. There are valid arguments that some of the "mass conversions" have resulted in adherents with little or no acculturation into the new religious system. As is typical with a religious group made up primarily of converts, Baha'is who drift from active participation in the movement are less likely to retain nominal identification with the religion -- because it was not the religion of their parents or the majority religion of the surrounding culture. On the other hand, there are no countries in which people are automatically assigned to the Baha'i Faith at birth (as is the case with Islam, Christianity, Shinto, Buddhism, and other faiths), so their numbers aren't inflated with people who have never willingly participated in or been influenced by the religion while adults.

On balance, while official Baha'i figures are not a measure of active participants, the proportion of participating adherents among claimed adherents is thought to be higher than average among the "major religions" on this list. The Baha'i community is remarkably active and influential in religious matters on both global and local levels, especially given their relatively small numbers compared to some other religions. More. "
Major Religions Ranked by Size

Regards,
Scott